Early & Late Inflation Theory cf. CMB+LSS @ CITA Concordance (pre-WMAP2++) & discordant notes. The “basic parameters”: LCDM with power law index and no/little GW is concordant. Some discord .. always. Extension to larger parameter lists. Are current discordant notes statistically significant, systematics, astrophysics, fundamental physics? Add parameters: theory priors – cost function, baroqueness, taste? r_ts (<.72/<.36??), k_BSI, dn_s/dlnk, size_U/chi_U, subdominant (isoc/adiab), z_reh (+VMOs?) {e.g. Vaudrevange, Lewis, McDonald @ CITA/PI focus gp; soon Nolta WMAP2} Resolving (or celebrating) discord with planned experiments. break degeneracies of cosmic parameters planned CMB+ext, with ext= z-surveys, cl-gp surveys (Sunyaev-Zeldovich/Opt/X/weaklens), weak lensing LSS surveys, SN CMB High-L frontier TT: near term, cbipol, boom2Kpol, acbar forecasts. Long term Apex, ACT, SPT, Quiet forecasts. CMB Polarization EE/BB, High & Low-L: CBI, BOOM2K , DASI, CAPMap, WMAP2, BICEP, QUaD, Polarbear, QUIET, AMiBA, Planck, … CMBpol

Anomalies: Systematics, Statistics, AstroPhysics or Fundamental Physics? “anomalies” @ low L 2,3; ~20-30; check@200, > 600? ET checkmarks 2, 22, 222, 2222 Issues: L=2,3 how low is the probability? Glitches? non-WMAP data e.g. Acbar/CBI calibration CBI anomalous power @ L > 2000, Sunyaev Zeldovich effect in the cosmic web is plausible if s8 if ~ 0.9 (nonlinear gasdynamics) Statistical isotropy broken on large scales?

uniform-acceleration Jan04 CMB data cf. good-fit LCDM uniform-acceleration model

String Theory Landscape @ Stanford Perhaps 10 different vacua 100

single field inflation vs. WMAP1+ext+ext WMAP1 Peiris et al. 2003 Each point is a “viable slow-roll” model, able to sustain inflation for sufficient e-foldings to solve the horizon problem and make the Universe (nearly) flat BUT highly restricted. Monte Carlo simulations using “flow-equations” (Kinney 2002). slow-roll priors are artificial, highly restrictive & misleading about allowed inflationary phase space. Equivalent to a power series expansion of order 5, 6, 8 of histories. CITA approach: efficiently sampled inflation acceleration histories (trajectories). Physics priors: NONE - all are allowed (constrain by taste, e.g. allowed bumpiness). Only data can decide, includes very weak “priors” like “anthropic data” as well as high precision CMB+LSS. Monte Carlo simulation of acceleration histories Don’t interpret points statistically! Each point has equal weight Not every point coincides with a physically realistic model Monte Carlo realizations of inflationary flow equations

Potential of the Hybrid D3/D7 Inflation Model String Theory Landscape & Inflation++ Phenomenology for CMB+LSS running index as simplest breaking (back to early 80s), radically broken scale invariance, 2+-field inflation, isocurvatures, Cosmic strings/defects, compactification & topology, & other baroque add-ons. subdominant String/Mtheory-motivated, extra dimensions, brane-ology, reflowering of inflaton/isocon models (includes curvaton), modified kinetic energies, k-essence, Dirac-Born-Infeld [sqrt(1-momentum**2), “DBI in the Sky” Silverstein etal 2004], etc. KKLT, KKLMMT any acceleration trajectory will do?? q (ln Ha) H(phi,…) V(phi,…) Measure?? anti-baroque prior 14 std inflation parameters + many many more e.g. “blind” search for patterns in the primordial power spectrum Potential of the Hybrid D3/D7 Inflation Model

Running of the Spectral Index : Parameter Fits [Tegmark et al. astro-ph/0310723] [Spergel et al. ApJS, 148, 175] [Bond, Contaldi & Pogosyan astro-ph/0310735] [CBI VII, Readhead et al. astro-ph/0402359] CMB + weak lens s8 CMB data only [dns/dlnk] <0 in Jan03, Mar03 & Mar04

PLANCK vs. WMAP4yr + Ground based telescopes (circa ~ 2008) WMAP 4yr + Ground-based telescopes pre-Planck ACT/SPT-like (bolometers) ; QUIET (HEMT arrays). Coverage assumed; ~few % of the sky (1000 sq deg); polarization included PLANCK (2007+)

END

Systematic error budget? .. McDonald etal, Haehnelt etal No running: dn/dlnk~0 Damped Lyman alpha system effect at small scales + increased WMAP errors at large scales of Slosar & Seljak 04 Systematic error budget? .. McDonald etal, Haehnelt etal

B+Contaldi+Kofman+Souradeep+Vaudrevange+ acceleration trajectories, “featured” potentials, expansions about uniform q(T) (aka slow-roll-ology in the Hamilton-Jacobi/stochastic inflation formulation – works OK), … & the nonlocal WKB++ approximation (Habib etal 02,04) B+Contaldi+Kofman+Souradeep+Vaudrevange+