China and the forces that are breaking all the trends   Torch Light Conference Columbia University September, 15- 17, 2017 Manuel Pinho 4/14/17 Manuel Pinho

My first impressions of China 2007 EU- China Annual Summit Defending Europe´s interests “Imagine, for the sake of argument, that Europe's politicians sit down to debate how Europe can best defend its interests in a globalized economy. In effect, they want to draft a European foreign economic policy. Europe's basic foreign economic policy should be 10 words long. Resist protectionism at home. Open markets abroad. Defend fair trade.”

The next time that I will visit Beijing in 2018 and 2019 Tong Zhou 2018 Daxingit 2019

My second impressions of China 2011 The good and the bad The good The bad

My recent visit to China 2017

Chinese are in love with the digital revolution Innovation Chinese are in love with the digital revolution Yu´e Bao 165 billion $

2017 Extremely strong political leadership of President Xi Jinping on the eve of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, where 5 of the 7 members of the Political Bureau Standing Committee will be replaced The idea of the new normal seems to be well established and there is no major concern with lower GDP growth rates U turn on the policy of encouraging or facilitating companies to make acquisitions abroad The policies of the US new administration are taken seriously, however there is the feeling that a full blown trade war will not happen given that the economy of the 2 countries is very intertwined The speed of adoption of digital technologies is amazing and is permitting China to leapfrog in many areas Air quality is improving  

The end of western dominance The end of Western dominance: did your parents own a car when you were born?

Imagine the G20 meeting in 2030 China´s GDP should be 40% higher than in the US although income per capita should be no higher than Greece´s current level

4 misconceptions about China We are not in 2007 anymore

Bears Goldilocks

Accelerating technological change New globalization paradigm No ordinary change Accelerating technological change Shift eastwards New globalization paradigm Rapid urbanization Climate awareness Energy transition Exponential Combinatorial Digital China, India, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia Equipment goods, global value chains, energy prices Middle income and developing countries will benefit the most US pulling out from Paris COP 21 is manageable Clean energues, efficiency, mobility

There is a global disruption with few precedents as a result not of one but of 6 driving forces operating at the same time and China is a major contributor in all fronts: Accelerating technological change: China is one of the countries where the digital revolution is unfolding more rapidly Shift eastwards of the world´s center of gravity: China is the largest economy in Asia and in the world New globalization paradigm: China is the world´s n. 1 exporter and n. 2 importer and maintains a comfortable trade surplus Urbanization: The growth of the urban population creates a tremendous opportunity to develop consumer spending and investment in areas such as ports, airports and buildings Climate awareness: China was offered the possibility of becoming the champion of climate change Energy transition: China is, by far, the largest investor in renewable energies

Fear instigated the war, not objective reasons. This is why it is so important on the one hand to understand the true meaning of ‟making America great again‟ and on the other hand exploit the possibilities to develop cooperation between the US and China. Cooperation is the best way to create bridges and avoiding irrational behaviors.