Birth Dearth

Birth Dearth Birth dearth – the situation in a country where a low total fertility rate is causing the population to decline.

3 Fundamental Factors that Affect Pop’n Size Total Fertility Rate (avg. # of children born over a lifetime of a typical woman) a. young women are better educated than previous generations. Marry later b. choosing to have a career outside the home. Greater access to birth control. c. more control over their lives Life Expectancy Migration

Birth Dearth Low total fertility rate causes decline Decline will accelerate

Implications of the Birth Dearth

1. Family Structures Many people w/o brothers and sisters No uncles and aunts Changing the character of the family Recall China’s “little emperors” Children may be overwhelmed by the responsibility of looking after parents and grandparents Friends may come to play a greater family-like role Increase in DINKS (Double Income No Kids) couples

2. Aging Population North American Social Security 3 Solutions Lower pension benefits Paying out lower amts Require ppl to work longer Increase premiums; taxes Restrict eligibility based on Income

Intergenerational conflict possible as younger generation must focus so much of their lives supporting huge numbers Older workforce

3. Labour Shortage Early retirement is a reality for many Following generations might have to work longer “Freedom 70”? Migration Challenge for Europe and Japan – regions that are unaccustomed to mass immigration from various parts of the world

4. Economic Effects Concept of never ending growth Growth occurs for 2 reasons: Needs (need stuff) There are more people who want more stuff If there is an implosion the latter could disappear and there would be fewer consumers, which would hurt economy

Shift in World Powers? UN Veto Power – U.S.A., Russia, China, U.K. and France were given this b/c the were the most powerful nations after WWII Will/should countries like India replace them?

Benefits of Dearth Environmental impact Less resources needed? Less waste and pollution?

Why it’s Happening – Status of Women Young women are more educated Birth control More women choosing careers Work for more yrs More control over their lives Marry later Some may choose not to marry

Prevention? Pronatalist Strategies – ideas that encourage people to have more children Eg. Tax benefits, inexpensive day care etc.

Application 1. Some authorities feel that society has fundamentally changed and that larger families are a thing of the past. How do smaller families reflect the realities of modern life? Consider both economic and social realities. 2. Describe how the healthcare needs of countries like Canada will change as the population implosion occurs. 3. Give specific examples of jobs that will become more common and others that will become less common because of demographic change. 4. Discuss the statement, “The birth dearth is essentially a woman’s issue.” True/false? 5. Describe how pension payments are related to the ratio of active and retired workers. Why are pensions being threatened by population changes?