NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Robert Looney, Ch 14 Handbook Transitions to Energy and Climate Security

Classic Energy Trilemma

U.S. Trilemma Scores

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma I U.S. no longer facing a hard trilemma where improvements in the environment must come at the expense of either (or both) energy security and affordable energy Breakthroughs in shale technology have fundamentally changed the U.S. energy picture from one of long term decline to one of being a major energy exporter Oil expansion increases energy security while the lower carbon gas will be increasingly used in power generation With this, policy makers will be faced with what might be called a virtuous trilemma With abundant energy, economic security replaces energy affordability

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma II

U.S. Softer Trilemma II Other changes from the conventional trilemma include national security as a goal that is enhanced by improvements in Energy security Climate security and Economic security National security – traditional view looks at national security largely in terms of Military and intelligence strengths The growth in potential advisory defense budgets Nuclear proliferation, cyber security threats and Rise of rogue nuclear states or state actors

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma III However broader definitions of national security are coming into the picture The 2010 National Security Strategy includes economic instability along with climate change as security threats Similarly the 2010 QDR draws a number of connections between climate change and conflicts, both now and increasingly in the future In the U.S. context – rather than a series of conventional trilemma tradeoffs, the virtuous trilemma represents a series of complementarities

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma IV Complementarities Increased energy security enhances economic security Improved economic security countries to climate security which in turn contributes to Energy security Improvements in each contributing positively to national security These shifts from the conventional trilemma are reflective of Not only of the shale oil and gas boom but also A number of recently observed phenomena and empirical relationships

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma V A number of linkages in virtuous trilemma are straightforward and need no further elaboration Improved economic security contributes directly towards funding those expenditures contributing to national security Improved climate security improved energy security through reducing the threat to the energy grid or energy facilities stemming from excessive heat or violent coastal storms Other critical linkages are less obvious and in need for further elaboration

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma VI Climate security – National Security Pentagon integrating climate change threats into all of its “plans, operations and training” In its 2014 Climate Adaptation Roadmap, the Pentagon details its strategic blueprint to address climate change Climate change a “threat multiplier” that has power to exacerbate many of the challenges the US faces today including infectious diseases and terrorism Empirical studies confirm climate’s impact on conflict Stanford University study found that shifts from normal weather patterns likely to increase the risk of conflict Problem most evident in Middle East and Africa Some point to drought in Syria as a factor behind conflict Boko Haram in Lake Chad region

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma VII While can’t link climate change to violence, terrorism safe to say as water systems fail, as energy reliability vanishes these factors piled on top of misery already in play will increase the risks of conflict and wars Increasingly situations develop where improved energy security and national security are complementary U.S. shale boom clearly case in point In the military area, a lessening imperative to maintain and preserve unstable regions in hostile areas For their part US military developing a spectrum of new fuels, technologies and usage patters in strengthening their own operations thus enhancing national security

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma VIII During the period of sanctions against Iran, increased oil supplies and lower energy prices stemming from the US shale boom aided US efforts to finalize a comprehensive nuclear treaty with that country The shale boom and the likelihood of increased gas exports likely contributed to the U.S. ability to form a coalition of Asian nations willing to form a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) a key element in the US efforts to assure a peaceful Pacific Basin.

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma IX Energy Security – Economic Security Increased energy security stemming from the shale oil and gas boom will also have some clear benefits through assuring improved economic security Sudden spikes in energy prices have been associated with nearly all of the post-WWII recessions At other times, rapid increases in energy prices have had a retarding effect on economic growth and job creation Households left with less to depend on goods and services in general causing slack in the economy resulting in declines in productive investment

U.S. Virtuous Trilemma X Before the shale boom energy prices were increasingly variable This variability often created a vicious circle whereby energy price variability increased uncertainty about future energy prices which in turn deterred investments in conventional types of energy With lower future supplies, sharp increases in oil prices occurred when economic growth picked up Because oil supplies can be increased quickly and incrementally from shale there is a dampening effect on prices not possible from conventional oil In effect this property of shale means the United States may replace Saudi Arabia as the world’s swing producer.