Nall Report on Aviation Safety Fifth District, Southern Region U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary Flight Safety Seminar Saturday, June 16, 2001 1000 to 1600 U.S. Coast Guard Air Station Elizabeth City, North Carolina

“safe is not the equivalent of risk free” If safe meant freedom from the possibility of harm, few human activities would meet the standard. In fact, the only way to eliminate risk from any activity is to avoid participating in it. While risk does not guarantee injury or make an activity unsafe, it should not be ignored. By analyzing mishaps, we can learn about potential risks and take proactive steps to control them.

While Riding the Subway Statistics Don’t Lie While Riding the Subway 4.3 Million riders per day Average time on the train 22 min. one way That equals 4.3m x 22 x 2 / 60 189,200,000 lifetime minutes each day!

I will live to be 100 years old. That is exactly 100 x 365 x 24 x 60 52,560,000 lifetime minutes

Natural Conclusion Get off the Subway FAST Or I may be on of the 3.6 people spending their entire lives in the subway today!

Statistics Don’t lie Their interpretation may If they show a trend believe it! If they are inconclusive keep looking.

What Does GA Fly?

GA rates higher than the Airlines GA conducts a wider range of operations Wide Variance in Pilot certificate levels Fewer Cockpit Resources More facilities airports 15,000 vs. 700 GA facilities do not have all the resources ILS etc. Crop dusting – banner towing have special risks More takeoffs and landings – the highest risk flight Less resources on the ground – dispatchers, mechanics, loadmasters, etc. Less Wx tolerant aircraft

Weather Related While weather-related accidents dropped slightly in 1999, they continue to have the highest probability of fatalities. In single-engine fixed-gear airplanes, 65 percent (13 of 20) of weather-related accidents were fatal. In single-engine retractable-gear airplanes, 88.9 percent (eight of nine) weather-related accidents were fatal In multiengine airplanes 85.7 percent (six of seven) of weather-related accidents resulted in fatal injuries.

Contributing Factors Weather Night Maneuvering Flight 12.4 % all fatal accidents Night 61.5 % of fatal Instrument approach accidents Maneuvering Flight 29.4% of all pilot related accidents

Personal Business

Instrument vs. Non Instrument At least two flights involved professional pilots attempting VFR operations in weather that included ceilings of less than 100 FEET

Will I ever Fly Again?

Absolutely The pilot-aircraft environment equation is the key to controlling risk. A capable pilot in a well maintained aircraft with proper consideration for flight conditions is one of the safer forms of transportation. Disregard any part of the equation and the risk will rise accordingly, as it does in any other performance activity.

Presentation is available at www.cgaux.com/index.htm