What better example than Finally, What’s the Bottom Line?

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Presentation transcript:

What better example than Finally, What’s the Bottom Line? The Lighter Side Celebrations: What better example than New Years? Finally, What’s the Bottom Line?

An obvious prediction: New Years celebrations Concatenation across all (24) time zones Cumulative excess deviation of means Model Prediction Weak Replication

Broughton: Taking the metaphor to heart Evoked Response in the Electrogaiagram: Signal averaging: Mini-Celebrating time zones

Evoked Response in the Electrogaiagram: Maxi-celebrating time zones, Signal averaging

An Alternative Analysis Variance of the Scores Sum of zi2-1 across eggs is c2 with N df Equivalent to variance s2 of egg scores Large cumulative deviation Reflects distribution spread, variability of means Reflects large deviations in either direction

Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement Y2K New Year 1999-2000: Coherent engagement? Radin makes an independent prediction Reduction of Variance across eggs Odds, GMT

New Years 2000-2001: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized, Squared, Smoothed

New Years 2001-2002: Variance Reduction Signal Average over 37 time zones Normalized as Z-scores, Smoothed 5-Min Smoothing Window

What do we have in hand? Where do we want to go with it? Four years of data 50 eggs around the world More than 100 formal studies About 65% positive outcome About 20% individually significant Many analyses remain to be done

Formal Chi-square outcome sequence versus random draws from Chi-square distribution

A subset of the formal trials, compared with Pseudo-random data

Bottom line: the full formal database 113 global events over 4 years

Bigger Picture: What is our aspiration? Sharpen and focus our questions Aim for theoretical understanding Capture insight about creative mind Consider evidence that we are one Contribute to better future for culture

We think the world apart We think the world apart. What would it be like to think the world together? -- Parker Palmer, educator http://noosphere.princeton.edu