1940 1960 1995 Census and forecast, Mexico from 1940 to 2050.

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Presentation transcript:

1940 1960 1995 Census and forecast, Mexico from 1940 to 2050

"Mortality trajectory and distribution of ages at death for the oldest old: comparing HMD with empirical data" Jean-Marie Robine*, Karen Siu Lan Cheung**, and Graziella Caselli** *Inserm, Montpellier, **University of Rome, La Sapienza Human mortality over age, time sex, and place, The 1st HMD Symposium, Rostock, June 18-19, 2004

Trends in extreme longevity, including a comparison of data sources for mortality analysis at very high ages Two main research questions

Mortality trajectory? Kannisto-Thatcher Database

International Database on Longevity (IDL)

Complete (age-bias free) and validated data (110+) Content of IDL Complete (age-bias free) and validated data (110+) Country of death N Source Obs. Period England and Wales 53 ONS 1968-2003 France 49 INSEE 1987-2002 Italy 21 ISTAT 1969-2000 Japan 96* MHW 1963-2003 (sept, 30th) Denmark 2 CRS 1968-2003 (july,1st) Quebec 8 ISQ 1974-2002 USA 326 SSA 1980-2003 Switzerland 4 OFS ? *for Japan, only 29 cases have been validated 5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

Complete ? and validated ? data (110+) Content of IDL Complete ? and validated ? data (110+) Country of death N Source Belgium 5 ? Netherlands 19 Nordic countries (Finland, Norway, Sweden) 5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

Incomplete and validated data (110+) Content of IDL Incomplete and validated data (110+) Country of death N Source Australia 11 Press reports Canada (out of Quebec) 10 5th Workshop on Supercentenarians Tokyo June 14-15, 2004

Mortality trajectory?

Compression or expansion of longevity?

Compression or expansion? Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

Different increases in life expectancy and mode Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

Increase in M and decrease in SD(M+), France & Sweden, 1806-2000 Sources: INED period life tables for France and HMD for Sweden

Can we use the HMD?

qx series, Swiss complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1988-93

qx series, Life tables, 1999-2002 Some graduations

dx series, Swiss complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1999-2002

Swiss qx series, HMD versus complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1929-32 / 1988-93

Swiss dx series, HMD versus complete life tables, 1876-80 / 1929-32 / 1988-93

Swiss qx series, HMD versus complete life table without graduadion, 1999-2002

Swiss dx series, HMD versus complete life table without graduadion, 1999-2002

Age at mode in Italy, La Sapienza database and HMD

Age at mode (x axis) and standard deviation (y axis): actual and fitted values with a log-linear model, 1980-2000

Compression or expansion in Japan?

Last dx, HMD versus empirical data, Switzerland, females 1876-2002