Is Arkansas’s progress in degree completion at risk? Lessons from the 50th Anniversary SREB Fact Book on Higher Education Arkansas Legislative Task Force on Higher Education Remediation, Retention, and Graduation Rates Little Rock, Arkansas October 9, 2007

Why progress in degree completion is at risk. Why college affordability is a growing problem. Why degree completion is more important than ever.

College enrollment trends… are promising. (See pp. 40-50 of “big book”.) College enrollment growth is one of the nation’s most dramatic stories of the last 50 years — and it is a story to which SREB states made a major contribution. Black student enrollment reaches historic threshold. In the SREB region, black students represented at least as high a percentage of college students (21%) as of the total population (20%) in 2005.

Enrollment Growth 1995 to 2005 See Page 11 in Featured Facts. Women Women accounted for most of the college enrollment growth in every SREB state from 1995 to 2005. In Arkansas, there were an additional 28,800 women enrolled in college in 2005 than in 1995 and an additional 16,300 men. In percentage terms these were the largest increase among the SREB states. Women Men

Black & Hispanic Enrollment Growth 1995 to 2005 See Page 12 in Featured Facts. Black & Hispanic Enrollment Growth 1995 to 2005 Black and Hispanic Total College enrollment of black and Hispanic students grew rapidly from 1995 to 2005 in virtually every SREB state. In Arkansas, there were 13,600 more black and Hispanic students enrolled in 2005 than in 1995. This was a 90 percent increase, compared with a 46 percent increase in total enrollment. Arkansas also had the highest rate of increase in the region in the number of white students (35 percent). Black and Hispanic Total

Women and minorities… also lead growth in degrees.

Increase in Bachelor’s Degrees Earned Arkansas, 1995 to 2005 See Page 21 in Featured Facts. Increase in Bachelor’s Degrees Earned Arkansas, 1995 to 2005 Women 1,600 2,600 11,186 bachelor’s degrees were awarded in Arkansas in 2005; 2,600 more than in 1995. Women accounted for 62% of the total increase (nationwide and regionally the figure was 69%). Women went from 57% of graduates in 1995 to 58% in 2005.

Increase in Bachelor’s Degrees Earned Arkansas, 1995 to 2005 See Page 22 in Featured Facts. Increase in Bachelor’s Degrees Earned Arkansas, 1995 to 2005 Black & Hispanic 800 2,600 Black and Hispanic students accounted for nearly 30% of the growth. They were 11% of graduates in 1995 and 16% by 2005.

More students … are sticking to their studies.

See Page 18 in Featured Facts. Increases in Student Progression Public Four-Year Colleges and Universities 70% 69% 1994 cohort = 2000 rate / 1999 cohort =2005 rate “Progression” includes students who, by six years, graduate, remain enrolled or who have transferred. 73%

Increases in Student Progression Public Two-Year Colleges See Page 20 in Featured Facts. Increases in Student Progression Public Two-Year Colleges 53% 45% 1997 cohort = 2000 rate / 2002 cohort = 2005 rate Arkansas is one of 6 SREB states above the regional average. 48%

But… alarming gaps remain. See pages 17 and 19 in the state Featured Facts booklet.

Differences in Percent of Adults with Bachelor’s or Higher Degrees See Page 8 in Featured Facts. Differences in Percent of Adults with Bachelor’s or Higher Degrees Arkansas SREB

Differences in Percent of Adults with Bachelor’s or Higher Degrees Arkansas SREB For white adults: region up 4 percentage points — Arkansas up 2 points. For black adults: region up 3 percentage points — Arkansas up 2 points. For Hispanic adults: region up 2 percentage points — Arkansas up 1 points.

18- to 24-Year-Olds in College United States, 2006 See Page 10 in Featured Facts. 18- to 24-Year-Olds in College United States, 2006 Overall = 39% Even after years of progress, a lower proportion (25 percent) of Hispanic young adults attended college than black young adults (33 percent) and white young adults (43 percent).

college graduation rates in the See pages 17 and 19 in Featured Facts. And… college graduation rates in the SREB region are below United States averages. See pages 17 and 19 in the state Featured Facts booklet.

See Page 17 in Featured Facts. College Graduation Rates Public Four-Year Colleges and Universities, 2005 The average U.S. six-year graduation rate of full-time freshmen who first enrolled to earn a bachelor’s degree in a public four-year college or university in 1999 was 54 percent. In the SREB region, the average was lower — 52 percent. Seven SREB states had graduation rates greater than the U.S. average. Arkansas had a 39 percent graduation rate.

Graduation rates Public Four-Year Colleges and Universities United States, 2005

College Graduation Rates Public Two-Year Colleges, 2005 See Page 18 in Featured Facts. College Graduation Rates Public Two-Year Colleges, 2005 The U.S. average three-year graduation rate for full-time freshmen who first enrolled in public two-year colleges to pursue associate’s degrees or vocational certificates in 2002 was 22 percent. The average in the SREB region was 17 percent. Two SREB states had rates greater than the U.S. average. Arkansas’s rate (20 percent) was above the regional average but below the national average.

Graduation rates Public Two-Year Colleges United States, 2005

Population changes… may put progress in degree completion at risk. How’s that?

Projected Population Growth Arkansas See Page 2 in Featured Facts. Projected Population Growth Arkansas 2.8 million 3.2 million Half of the population growth in America over the past 10 years was in the 16 SREB states. More than half of the population growth in America over the next 20 years will be in the 16 SREB states. AR is expected to grow 6% (176,500) compared to the regional average of 12% and the national average of 9%.

Hispanic Population Growth Arkansas See Page 3 in Featured Facts. Hispanic Population Growth Arkansas 41,100 +100,000 141,100 Hispanic population increases are the overriding demographic trend. Hispanics made up 9% of the SREB region’s population in 1996. (From 2% to 5% in AR.) The gain of 6.6 million by 2006 moved the Hispanic population to 14% of the total. Hispanic growth accounted for 41 percent of the total increase in population to 2006 and, 43% of all Hispanics in the SREB region in 2006 arrived since 1996. 71% of all Hispanics in Arkansas in 2006 arrived since 1996.

See Page 4 in Featured Facts. Projected Changes in Public High School Graduates Arkansas, 2004 to 2018 2004 Hispanic up 8,774 (92% of total increase) from 3% of total to 27% of total Asian up 578 from 1% to 3% of total Black up 122 from 21% of total to 16% of total American Indian up 7,000 will stay 1% of total White down 981; goes from 74% of total to 53% of total. Only four SREB states (GA, KY, NC, SC) are projected to have any increase in the numbers of white graduates.

Arkansas possibly faces… a historically unprecedented stagnation of progress in educating the population. If the population in Arkansas grows as projected and attainment rates remain the same for each race/ethnic group, then the percent of 25 to 44-year-olds… …with less than a high school level education will grow from 19% to 20% (40,600 more) ...with no more than a high school diploma or a GED credential stay at 26% (52,200 more) …with no more than some college or an associate’s degree will grow from 27% to 28% (37,500 more), and …with a bachelor’s degree or higher will remain at 18% (25,700 more). So, if rates don’t change, we’re in trouble.

The college affordability gap … has grown for middle- and lower-income students. See page 127 in the “big” Fact Book. Sixty-three percent of undergraduates at public 4-year colleges and universities in the United States in 2004 did not have enough money to cover the annual costs of college. Even after family contributions, scholarships, grants and work/study participation, students from middle- to lower-income families faced a shortfall, or gap.

Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States See Page 24 in Featured Facts. Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 1986 1996 2006 Highest —> 2 percentage points up Middle —> 12 percentage points up Lowest  43 percentage points up!!!

Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States See Page 24 in Featured Facts. Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 1986 1996 2006 Highest —> 2 percentage points up Middle —> 12 percentage points up Lowest  53 percentage points up!!!

Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States See Page 24 in Featured Facts. Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 1986 1996 2006 Highest —> 2 percentage points up Middle —> 12 percentage points up Lowest  53 percentage points up!!!

Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States See Page 24 in Featured Facts. Income Required to Pay for One Year Public University, United States Annual household income Percent required for one year’s tuition, fees, room and board 1986 1996 2006 Highest —> 2 percentage points up Middle —> 12 percentage points up Lowest  53 percentage points up!!! Middle- and lower-income students face increased affordability pressure. (Another example from page 132 of “big” Fact Book: A maximum Pell Grant covered 72% of tuition, room and board at a public university in 1976. In 2006 a maximum Pell Grant covered just 30%. Is this affordability pressure likely to lessen?

Rising tuition and fees… by far the largest source of new funds for colleges and universities.

See Page 33 in Featured Facts. Appropriations and Tuition Growth Public Colleges, Arkansas, 2001 to 2006 $46.6 million Two-Year Colleges Grant or Loan $38.8 million Two-Year Colleges: $1.20 in tuition for every additional $1 in appropriations. Four-Year Colleges: $2.10 in tuition for every additional $1 in appropriations. [Not adjusted for inflation] With this funding trend, the outlook for tuition price relief for students and their families is not good. And, to keep from getting the idea that all this additional money means the institutions are in good financial shape, look at pages 30 and 31 of the state Featured Facts report to see how enrollment growth and inflation have diminished funding growth. $116.1 million Four-Year Colleges $56.3 million

The facts add up to lessons learned. Progress in degree completion will be at risk, if we do not find ways to help more students gain access to and successfully complete postsecondary programs. “Adding up” points 1 through 6 … “Population growth is expected to be the greatest for racial/ethnic and lower-income groups who have been the least likely to go to college, the least likely to graduate from college and who face the largest affordability gaps in paying for college. This means that SREB states’ continued education progress will be challenged. Without immediate and expanded efforts, our region will see an increasing number of undereducated working-age adults outpace the rise in the more highly educated. Should this come to pass, our region’s economic and social progress will be threatened. We must find ways to help more students gain access to and successfully complete postsecondary education programs.” Dave Spence

Postsecondary education … still the best bet for higher pay for individuals and for economic competitiveness for states. Not all college graduates earn more than those with only a high school education or less, but on average the differences are significant. (See pages 14 and 15 of state Featured Facts.) The fastest growing, highest-paying jobs will require education beyond high school. Total: = +13% (18.9 million) Doctoral = +31% (594,000) Associate’s = +25% (1.4 million) Bachelor’s = +20% (3.3 million) Master’s = +19% (407,000) Professional = +19% (356,000) Postsecondary vocational = +18% (1.4 million) Work experience or on-the-job training = +10% (10.4 million) [Bachelor’s plus work experience = +17 percent (1.1 million)]

State Incomes Related to Adults with Bachelor’s or Higher Degrees 2005 Few states have a low proportion of Bachelor’s degrees and a high per capita income. Few states have a high proportion of Bachelor’s degrees and a low per capita income. Low income / Low education = 26 states High income / High education = 13 states Low income / High education = 3 states High income / Low education = 6 states 1 state low ed high/low income borderline 1 state high income high/low ed borderline Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 2005 and Bureau of Economic Analysis

Lessons from the 50th Anniversary SREB Fact Book on Higher Education, For further information contact Joe Marks at the SREB office. Lessons from the 50th Anniversary SREB Fact Book on Higher Education, 2007