Scientific Attitude vs. Intuition and Common Sense

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Presentation transcript:

Scientific Attitude vs. Intuition and Common Sense

We cannot put so much trust in our gut instinct because intuition can be wrong. What are the two psychological terms that exemplify how our intuition can be wrong?

Hindsight Bias Hindsight bias: Events that don’t seem obvious beforehand seem so looking back. Ex.) Hindsight is 20/20. “I knew it all along!”

Overconfidence We tend to think we know more than we do. We are more confident than correct. We want to seek information that confirms our ideas…once we have the wrong idea we often will not budge from our illogical way of thinking. We tend to overestimate our own success rates.

Even EXPERTS can be overconfident: “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home” --Ken Olson, president of Digital Equipment Co., 1977 “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible” – Lord Kelvin, British mathematician and physicist, 1895 “We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on their way out” – Decca Records, in turning down a contract with The Beatles

Who said the following: “What good fortune for those in power that people do not think” Adolph Hitler We need to become critical thinkers, but how? We need to examine any assumptions we have, and always ask questions to further our understanding.

The “Scientific Attitude” will help us to think critically. We need to become more skeptical. Ask questions like “What do you mean”? and “How do you know”? Have humility. You may have to reject your own ideas when the data does not support them. You have to be able to accept your ideas were wrong and move on.

James Randi and Magical Thinking http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJQBljC5RIo