DJF SEASONAL FORECASTS Dominica

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Presentation transcript:

DJF SEASONAL FORECASTS Dominica Vernie M-Honore’

Dominica

Climatology

Rainfall Average probabilities: A 46 N 19 B 35 Canefield: A 65 B 23 Douglas-Charles: A 26 B 47 Average rainfall probabilities tending to above normal. Interests in the north east should pay particular attention to daily forecasts as there is some signal for below normal rainfall. This is important as there have been months of rainfall deficits in the wet season. Normal is approximately 200-500mm at Canefield and Douglas-Charles respectively.

Temperature Average probabilities: A 25 N 27 B 48 Conflicting signals/ forecasts (from different models). High uncertainty. Unable to provide clear forecast.

Drought Outlook: Nov2014-May2015 Probability of moderately dry or worse: 59% Relative odd: 6 Due to these odds results (6 times more likely of impactful drought) drought warning is being issued. We continue to advise persons especially those with interests in the north-east to stay updated and to take measures that will help conserve water. Stay tuned to weather forecast.