Evaluating North Atlantic Ocean Circulation and Properties B. Moat1, B. Sinha1, J. Hirschi1, P. Holliday1, G. McCarthy1, and S. Olsen2 1) NOC UK, 2) DMI RAPID ARRAY OSNAP GSR EEL OVIDE What’s happening in the Subpolar North Atlantic (from observations) 2) High resolution hindcast and coupled model evaluation (BLUE-ACTION) Aim: look at the heat and freshwater transport anomalies into the Arctic. 3) Links to Ocean Metrics STATION M 2.1 Assessment of key lower latitude influences on the Arctic and their simulation [Lead: NERC; Participants: UoS, NLeSC, MPI, HAV, GEOMAR, NIOZ, SAMS, MRI, MSS, UHAM, UNIRES, CNRS, DMI, UIB, NCAR, WHOI, MEOPAR] [Start: Month 1, End: Month 36; Deliverables associated to this task: D2.1, D2.2, D2.3, D2.4]
At key locations, Blue-Action *** will compare observations of heat and freshwater transport to state-of-the-art coupled climate models (HadGEM-Charisma, IPSL, CESM) and high resolution ocean-only models (e.g., NEMO (1/24°)). In-situ ocean data originating from transport mooring arrays (TMAs) and hydrographic GO-SHIP sections will be complimented with remote sensed data from Argo profiling floats, from underwater gliders and satellite data (including existing missions, and new missions data from Jason-3 and Sentinel-3, when they are operational). ***Correspondence, compensation or feedback between these ocean heat transport estimates and atmospheric heat transport will be examined in the coupled model simulations (D2.1) [NERC, MPI, UoS, NLeSC, GEOMAR, SAMS, NIOZ, MRI, HAV, MSS, UHAM, CNRS, UNIRES, UIB, NCAR, WHOI].
 RAPID 2004. OVIDE. Every 2 years since 2002. OSNAP: 2014 to present. Data released in the Autmn of 2017. EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. M: 1948 to 2008. Mooring in place. 4 CTD to 100m a week. 1 2000m CTD weekly. ¼ degree eqivalents with an N216 atmosphere. Rcp 8.5 b) go6 and geo7 atmos (25km resolution) Qunatify different water massess across EEL, OVIDE ? volcanoes, solar, aerosols,  greenhouse gases (ALL FORCED) Baring strait – University of Washington Rebecca Woodgate ? 0.8Sv inflow and 26 Sv psu Station M – 1948 to 2009 daily CTD to 1000m, weekly CTD to 2200m. Mooring since 2010 (DNMI?) Testing ? Is the AMOC realistic ??? Modelling Workshop Evaluating climate and Earth System models at the process level. 23-24 May 2017, Brussels.

EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. 2.1 Assessment of key lower latitude influences on the Arctic and their simulation [Lead: NERC; Participants: UoS, NLeSC, MPI, HAV, GEOMAR, NIOZ, SAMS, MRI, MSS, UHAM, UNIRES, CNRS, DMI, UIB, NCAR, WHOI, MEOPAR] [Start: Month 1, End: Month 36; Deliverables associated to this task: D2.1, D2.2, D2.3, D2.4]
At key locations, Blue-Action *** will compare observations of heat and freshwater transport to state-of-the-art coupled climate models (HadGEM-Charisma, IPSL, CESM) and high resolution ocean-only models (e.g., NEMO (1/24°)). In-situ ocean data originating from transport mooring arrays (TMAs) and hydrographic GO-SHIP sections will be complimented with remote sensed data from Argo profiling floats, from underwater gliders and satellite data (including existing missions, and new missions data from Jason-3 and Sentinel-3, when they are operational). ***Correspondence, compensation or feedback between these ocean heat transport estimates and atmospheric heat transport will be examined in the coupled model simulations (D2.1) [NERC, MPI, UoS, NLeSC, GEOMAR, SAMS, NIOZ, MRI, HAV, MSS, UHAM, CNRS, UNIRES, UIB, NCAR, WHOI].
 RAPID 2004. OVIDE. Every 2 years since 2002. OSNAP: 2014 to present. Data released in the Autmn of 2017. EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. M: 1948 to 2008. Mooring in place. 4 CTD to 100m a week. 1 2000m CTD weekly. ¼ degree eqivalents with an N216 atmosphere. Rcp 8.5 b) go6 and geo7 atmos (25km resolution) Qunatify different water massess across EEL, OVIDE ? volcanoes, solar, aerosols,  greenhouse gases (ALL FORCED) Baring strait – University of Washington Rebecca Woodgate ? 0.8Sv inflow and 26 Sv psu Station M – 1948 to 2009 daily CTD to 1000m, weekly CTD to 2200m. Mooring since 2010 (DNMI?) Testing ? Is the AMOC realistic ???

ESA CCI : http://www.esa-sst-cci.org/ Cci 1991 to prsent ESA CCI : http://www.esa-sst-cci.org/ EN4 : www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/

Berx: http://data.marine.gov.scot/dataset/sub-polar-gyre-index Thus, when the SPG is strong, there is an eastward shift of cold, fresh waters, as a branch of the NAC peels off into the Rockall Plateau (RP, Figure 2). Conversely, a weak SPG allows subtropical waters to extend north and west, spreading warm, saline conditions over the RP [Hátún et al 2009a]. Therefore, the SPG index (calculated from altimetry) is used as an indicator of the climatic forcing over the NA [Hátún et al 2005, Hátún et al 2009b, Häkkinen and Rhines 2004]. McCarthy: https://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v521/n7553/full/nature14491.html Berx: http://data.marine.gov.scot/dataset/sub-polar-gyre-index

EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. 2.1 Assessment of key lower latitude influences on the Arctic and their simulation [Lead: NERC; Participants: UoS, NLeSC, MPI, HAV, GEOMAR, NIOZ, SAMS, MRI, MSS, UHAM, UNIRES, CNRS, DMI, UIB, NCAR, WHOI, MEOPAR] [Start: Month 1, End: Month 36; Deliverables associated to this task: D2.1, D2.2, D2.3, D2.4]
At key locations, Blue-Action *** will compare observations of heat and freshwater transport to state-of-the-art coupled climate models (HadGEM-Charisma, IPSL, CESM) and high resolution ocean-only models (e.g., NEMO (1/24°)). In-situ ocean data originating from transport mooring arrays (TMAs) and hydrographic GO-SHIP sections will be complimented with remote sensed data from Argo profiling floats, from underwater gliders and satellite data (including existing missions, and new missions data from Jason-3 and Sentinel-3, when they are operational). ***Correspondence, compensation or feedback between these ocean heat transport estimates and atmospheric heat transport will be examined in the coupled model simulations (D2.1) [NERC, MPI, UoS, NLeSC, GEOMAR, SAMS, NIOZ, MRI, HAV, MSS, UHAM, CNRS, UNIRES, UIB, NCAR, WHOI].
 RAPID 2004. OVIDE. Every 2 years since 2002. OSNAP: 2014 to present. Data released in the Autmn of 2017. EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. M: 1948 to 2008. Mooring in place. 4 CTD to 100m a week. 1 2000m CTD weekly. ¼ degree eqivalents with an N216 atmosphere. Rcp 8.5 b) go6 and geo7 atmos (25km resolution) Qunatify different water massess across EEL, OVIDE ? volcanoes, solar, aerosols,  greenhouse gases (ALL FORCED) Baring strait – University of Washington Rebecca Woodgate ? 0.8Sv inflow and 26 Sv psu Station M – 1948 to 2009 daily CTD to 1000m, weekly CTD to 2200m. Mooring since 2010 (DNMI?) Testing ? Is the AMOC realistic ???

WP2.1 Model-observation and re-analyses comparison at key locations for heat transport to the Arctic RAPID ARRAY OSNAP GSR EEL OVIDE STATION M 1) NEMO Ocean only hindcast 1/12° 1958 to 2015 1/12° 1958 to present day (ACSIS) 2) Three (HadGEM3) - Coupled simulations All are 1/12° Ocean N512 Atmosphere 20 year control run b) 100 year control run (RUNNING NOC) fixed present day CO2 c) 100 year “all-forced” run to present day and then a RCP scenario 1950 to 2050 (RUNNING UK MET OFFICE ?) 2.1 Assessment of key lower latitude influences on the Arctic and their simulation [Lead: NERC; Participants: UoS, NLeSC, MPI, HAV, GEOMAR, NIOZ, SAMS, MRI, MSS, UHAM, UNIRES, CNRS, DMI, UIB, NCAR, WHOI, MEOPAR] [Start: Month 1, End: Month 36; Deliverables associated to this task: D2.1, D2.2, D2.3, D2.4]
At key locations, Blue-Action *** will compare observations of heat and freshwater transport to state-of-the-art coupled climate models (HadGEM-Charisma, IPSL, CESM) and high resolution ocean-only models (e.g., NEMO (1/24°)). In-situ ocean data originating from transport mooring arrays (TMAs) and hydrographic GO-SHIP sections will be complimented with remote sensed data from Argo profiling floats, from underwater gliders and satellite data (including existing missions, and new missions data from Jason-3 and Sentinel-3, when they are operational). ***Correspondence, compensation or feedback between these ocean heat transport estimates and atmospheric heat transport will be examined in the coupled model simulations (D2.1) [NERC, MPI, UoS, NLeSC, GEOMAR, SAMS, NIOZ, MRI, HAV, MSS, UHAM, CNRS, UNIRES, UIB, NCAR, WHOI].
 RAPID 2004. OVIDE. Every 2 years since 2002. OSNAP: 2014 to present. Data released in the Autmn of 2017. EEL: 1975 to 1996. then EEL to present. Annual. M: 1948 to 2008. Mooring in place. 4 CTD to 100m a week. 1 2000m CTD weekly. ¼ degree eqivalents with an N216 atmosphere. Rcp 8.5 b) go6 and geo7 atmos (25km resolution) Qunatify different water massess across EEL, OVIDE ? volcanoes, solar, aerosols,  greenhouse gases (ALL FORCED) Baring strait – University of Washington Rebecca Woodgate ? 0.8Sv inflow and 26 Sv psu Station M – 1948 to 2009 daily CTD to 1000m, weekly CTD to 2200m. Mooring since 2010 (DNMI?) Testing ? Is the AMOC realistic ???

Temperature/Heat transports at 26.5°N 4 3 2 1 -1 -2 -3 (Moat et al. 2016, JGR-Oceans) RAPID thick line, model thin line ORCA083 (PW) RAPID (PW) FC 2.54±0.16 2.50±0.25 EKMAN 0.34±0.31 0.35±0.30 Mid- Ocean -2.02±0.27 -1.81±0.31 WBW 0.12±0.21 0.12±0.18 EDDY -0.02±0.06 0.08±0.03 Total heat transport 0.93±0.32 1.24±0.36 Temperature/Heat Transports (PW) RAPID: 17.20±4.60 Sv ORCA083: 15.18±4.03 Sv Extending to SALT and FW fluxes. 1/12° NEMO hindcast model overestimates the Southwards Mid-Ocean temperature transport. Model HT 0.3 PW lower than RAPID, but good agreement in the variability.

Heat transports at 26.5°N 2 COUPLED 1/12 CONTROL 1.1 ± 0.26 PW COUPLED, R2=0.92 HINDCAST, R2=0.84 Johns 2011, R2=0.94 Heat transport (PW) 1.1 ± 0.26 PW 0.94 ± 0.22 PW Mean over RAPID period = 1.24±0.36 PW NEMO 1/12 HINDCAST MOC (Sv) 0 30 Larger variability in 20year coupled model 1/12 degree RAPID: 17.20±4.60 Sv ORCA083: 15.18±4.03 Sv COUPLED : 15.3 ± 3.6 Sv Rsquare COUPLED = 0.92 Rsquare hinf = 0.84 10 year coupled mean HT 1.0823 +/- 0.25746 PW 10 year ocean only mean HT 0.93641 +/- 0.21831 PW Johns 0.079*MOC-0.12 Extending to SALT and FW fluxes. 25Km resolution atmosphere 8.3 km, becoming finer at higher latitudes such that at 608N/S it becomes 4.6 km. Model info : Hewitt et al. (2016) Roberts et al. (2016)

OSNAP Challenge 2017 (NOC won) NEMO 1/12 hindcast OSNAP time series from the array will be released October 2017. OSNAP time series out in October 2017

FSC FSC IF DS DS EGC Inflow Overflow/Outflow Østerhus et al., in prep. Center for Ocean and Ice Inflow Overflow/Outflow FSC FSC IF DS DS EGC Østerhus et al., in prep. Steffen M. Olsen, DMI, Copenhagen DK (smo@dmi.dk)

26N AMOC time series: April 2004 to Oct 2015 (update to Feb 2017 in October ) http://www.rapid.ac.uk/rapidmoc/rapid_data/datadl.php Contact: gerard.mccarthy@noc.ac.uk or ben.moat@noc.ac.uk 26N HT time series : April 2004 to March 2014 update to Feb 2017 in October ) http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/users/mocha/mocha_results.htm Contact: Bill Johns bjohns@rsmas.miani.edu OSNAP time series : Summer 2014 to Summer 2016 (will be released in the Autumn 2017) http://www.o-snap.org/ Contact: Stuart.Cunningham@sams.ac.uk OVIDE : every two years since 2002. ( 2018 and 2020 cruises in planning stage ) https://cchdo.ucsd.edu/ Contact: Marie-Noelle Houssais mnh@locean-ipsl.upmc.fr Faroe Shetland Channel Transport Mooring Array  ( 1993 to present ) Barbara Berx B.Berx@MARLAB.AC.UK; Karin Margretha H. Larsen Bering Strait : 1990 to present. http://psc.apl.washington.edu/HLD/Bstrait/Data/ woodgate@apl.washington.edu