Set Up for Instructor MGH Display: Try setting your resolution to 1024 by 768 Run Powerpoint. For most reliable start up: Start laptop & projector before connecting them together If necessary, reboot the laptop Run Firefox. Load Psych 548 webpage. Psych 548, Miyamoto, Win '17

Set Up for Students Turn on your computer; log in. Open a browser to the Psych 548 website (you can get it from MyUW) http://faculty.washington.edu/jmiyamot/p548/p548-set.htm Download the zip file: p548.zip . Unzip the zip file. This process will create a subdirectory of your downloads directory. The files for today’s class are in this directory or one of its subdirectories. Psych 548, Miyamoto, Win '17

Notes re Lecture 05-1 P548: Bayesian Stats with Psych Applications Instructor: John Miyamoto 01/30/2017: Lecture 05-1 Note: This Powerpoint presentation may contain macros that I wrote to help me create the slides. The macros aren’t needed to view the slides. You can disable or delete the macros without any change to the presentation.

Lecture probably ends here Outline ## Lecture probably ends here Psych 548, Miyamoto, Aut ‘16

Psych 548, Miyamoto, Aut ‘16

Problem 5 from Assignment 3 (re Posterior Predictive Distributions) Suppose that this year, you taught an undergrad course on statistics for the first time. You had 25 students and you found that 8 had previously used R in another course. Assume that these students were a random sample from a population of psych undergrads and that future classes that you teach will be random samples from exactly the same population. Assume that before you taught this class you had no idea how many students would have previously used R so that your prior distribution for this proportion was beta(1, 1). The next slide summarizes your statistical model. Psych 548, Miyamoto, Win '17

Problem 5 from Assignment 3 (cont.) Prior distribution for theta = beta(1, 1) (theta = the proportion of students who have used R) Data from the class that you taught: 8 successes, 17 failures (Success = student previously used R) Posterior distribution for theta = beta(9, 18) Question: Next year you will teach another class of 25 students. What should be your probability distribution over the number of students in this future class who will have previously used R? This is the same as asking: What is your posterior predictive distribution for the proportion of students who have previously used R? Psych 548, Miyamoto, Win '17

Psych 548, Miyamoto, Aut ‘16

Two Logically Equivalent Contracts You will mow the lawn You will wash the dishes. I will provide you with the equipment that you need for these jobs. When you have completed the work, I will pay you $50. Contract 2 When you have completed the work, I will pay you $50. You will mow the lawn I will provide you with the equipment that you need for these jobs. You will wash the dishes. A model file is a description of a statistical model. It is not a procedure for computing the values of variables. The order of statements does not matter (except once in awhile). Psych 548, Miyamoto, Win '17 #

Psych 548, Miyamoto, Aut ‘16

Set Up for Instructor Turn off your cell phone. Close web browsers if they are not needed. Classroom Support Services (CSS), 35 Kane Hall, 206-543-9900 If the display is odd, try setting your resolution to 1024 by 768 Run Powerpoint. For most reliable start up: Start laptop & projector before connecting them together If necessary, reboot the laptop Psych 548, Miyamoto, Aut ‘16