Consultant for ARIES Project/UCSD/DOE Response on TPE Graph Action Item L. Waganer Consultant for ARIES Project/UCSD/DOE ARIES Project Meeting 27-28 July 2011 Gaithersburg, MD Page 1

TPE Graph Action Item Redraw the existing graph of TPE cost vs. thermal power and efficiencies to indicate TPE cost vs. electric power (thought current figure may be misleading) Page 2

Turbine-Generator Plant Equipment Costs This account includes the costs for the Turbine Plant Equipment to transport the thermal energy from the intermediate heat exchanger and convert it into electrical energy. This system can either be an advanced Rankine (steam) or a Brayton (helium or other gas) turbine fluid or maybe a combined gas cycle turbine. The costs included are shown on the next slide. Page 3

TPE Cost Accounts and Rationale Subsystem costs relate to: Turbines : input thermal power; temperature and pressure of the heat transfer media; HT Media Generators: gross electric power Thermal power handled; temperature and pressure of the heat transfer media; HT Media Rejected thermal power handled (efficiency of turbine cycle); HT Media Efficiency of turbine cycle determines power level and complexity; HT Media Probably the same as Turbines : input thermal power; temperature and pressure of the heat transfer media; HT Media Probably constant for individual HT Media Page 4

Proposed T-G Cost Algorithms To better represent and parametrically scale T-G costs, these algorithms were proposed: C23 = $350M x (Pth gross/2620)0.70 Rankine = $360M x (Pth gross/2000)0.80 x (ηth gross/.60) Brayton Prior Graph ARIES-ST, η=45% ARIES-RS, η=46% ARIES-AT, η=59% ARIES-CS, η=43% Page 5

Proposed T-G Cost Algorithms This illustrates the same data scaling, plotted as a function of gross electric power, incorporating gross thermal power and cycle efficiency. However the curves are bunched up with the higher efficiency curves moved up and to the right. See the next page for an overlay of the constant thermal power curves. ARIES-AT, η=59% ARIES-CS, η=43% ARIES-ST, η=45% ARIES-RS, η=46% Page 6

Proposed T-G Cost Algorithms The lines of constant thermal power have been added to the curves (cyan lines). 1500 MWth 2000 MWth 2500 MWth 3000 MWth 3500 MWth Page 7

Conclusions The TPE subsystems tend to be influenced more by thermal power, efficiency (thermal constraints) and the heat transfer media (high pressure water or high pressure gas). Only the generator subsystem is influenced by Gross Electric Power. Graphing the TPE cost by Gross Electric Power tends to flatten the curves and obscures the cost drivers. Recommend retaining the cost algorithms as shown. However, remember these cost algorithms represent a very high level “model” and it does not reflect an actual cost estimate – it is just a parametric cost model of the perceived cost drivers that is fitted to prior conceptual cost estimates. Page 8