Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist

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Presentation transcript:

Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist Columbia River Basin 2016 Water Year Review National Weather Service – NW River Forecast Center www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/rfc/ Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist kevin.berghoff@noaa.gov 503-326-7291

Presentation Outline Very strong ENSO signal before start of 2016 WY 2016 Precipitation and Monthly Temperature Departure from Normal 2016 Snowpack Accumulation and Depletion ESP Water Supply Forecast and Observed Runoff Volumes

3 Month ONI index values since 1950 Peak ONI wy2016(NDJ)=2.3 Current ONI wy2017(JAS)= -0.5

2015/2016 Precipitation Summary % Normal Water year summary 2016 Water Year % Normal Precipitation

Observed Temperature Departures Water Year 2015 / 2016 Comparison Although not as bad as last year, tempts were still warmer than we would like Feb and Apr especially warm 2016 Monthly Temperature Departure from Normal - DegF

2016 Observed Snowpack Conditions % Normal SWE Apr 5, 2016 May 4, 2016 Warm tempts in April….depleted snowpack relative to %normal This graphic shows the relative degree of SWE loss since Apr 5. Low elevation snowpack showing more significant loss, but even higher elev in the upper snake and along crest of the rockies into western mt and north into Canada have lost SWE Warmer tempts, especially in April, causing a more rapid meltoff of snowpack than we would typically see 6

2015/2016 Observed Snowpack Conditions % Normal SWE May 6, 2015 May 4, 2016 Looking better this year compared to last year (record low snowpack in many areas) 7

2016 Water Year Runoff Summary 2016 Water Year Runoff - % Normal 2016 Observed Seasonal Runoff - % Normal Oct –Sep Jan-Sep Apr-Sep MCDQ2 Mica Dam 101 98 97 LYDM8 Libby Dam 92 91 HHWM8 Hungry Horse 87 90 86 DWRI1 Dworshak 96 84 PALI1 Palisades 93 LGDW1 Lower Granite 83 TDAO3 The Dalles 94 89 MCDQ2 LYDM8 GCDW1 HHWM8 LGDW1 DWRI1 TDAO3 PALI1

Observed Monthly Runoff Volume – TDAO3 2016WY Observed Monthly Runoff Volume – WY 2016 TDAO3 – Columbia River at The Dalles Dam - WY 2015 Critical snowpack accum period outlined in red Excessive tempt departures throughout year % runoff above normal…sure sign we were losing snowpack to early, to fast

2016 ESP Review 5714 KAF – 91% 1702 KAF – 86% 2169 KAF – 84% Warm tempts continuously diminished snowpack thru the WSF season

2016 Observed Runoff Volume Historical ONI Perspective

2016 Observed Runoff Volume Historical ONI Perspective

2016 WY Summary Very strong ENSO signal – Impacts on Columbia River water resources unclear Precipitation slightly below normal for water year Near normal in Upper Columbia 90% in Snake 95% above The Dalles Above normal tempts resulting in early runoff and depleted snowpack Most areas below normal seasonal runoff 89% Apr-Sep at The Dalles

NWRFC 2017 Water Supply Briefing Schedule https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/rt/8111931086353869315

2017 Forecast? Questions? NWS/Northwest River Forecast Center Kevin Berghoff, Senior Hydrologist Kevin.berghoff@noaa.gov 503-326-7291

30YR AVG=5342 KAF OBS=5002.5 KAF

OBS=2068.4 KAF 30YR AVG=2419 KAF