Software Project Management UNIT2 Software Project Management

Overview Different level of estimation Project Evaluation Introduction to Estimation Size Estimation Cost Estimation The emphasis is on the last two items. However, project managers need to understand there are various level of estimation based on the purposes. Spend 30-40 minutes on first 34 slides. Can skip some because they are rather obvious. Software Project Management

Different level of estimation Before decision to do a project The estimation is coarse The estimation is in high level terms Profit? Good to the organization? etc. After decision to go ahead More detailed size and cost estimations are required Software Project Management

Project Evaluation A high level assessment of the project to see whether it is worthwhile to proceed with the project to see whether the project will fit in the strategic planning of the whole organization Software Project Management

Project Evaluation - Why Want to decide whether a project can proceed before it is too late Want to decide which of the several alternative projects has a better success rate, a higher turnover, a higher ... Is it desirable to carry out the development and operation of the software system? Software Project Management

Project Evaluation - Who Senior management Project manager/coordinator Team leader Software Project Management

Project Evaluation - When Usually at the beginning of the project e.g. Step 0 of Step Wise Framework Software Project Management

Project Evaluation - What Strategic assessment Technical assessment Economic assessment Software Project Management

Project Evaluation - How Cost-benefit analysis Cash flow forecasting Cost-benefit evaluation techniques Risk analysis Software Project Management

Strategic Assessment Used to assess whether a project fits in the long-term goal of the organization Usually carried out by senior management Needs a strategic plan that clearly defines the objectives of the organization Evaluates individual projects against the strategic plan or the overall business objectives Software Project Management

Strategic Assessment (cont’d) Programme management suitable for projects developed for use in the organization Portfolio management suitable for project developed for other companies by software houses Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Individual projects as components of a programme within the organization Programme as “a group of projects that are managed in a coordinated way to gain benefits that would not be possible were the projects to be managed independently” Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Issues Objectives How does the project contribute to the long-term goal of the organization? Will the product increase the market share? By how much? Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Issues (cont’d) IS plan Does the product fit into the overall IS plan? How does the product relate to other existing systems? Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Issues (cont’d) Organization structure How does the product affect the existing organizational structure? the existing workflow? the overall business model? Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Issues (cont’d) MIS What information does the product provide? To whom is the information provided? How does the product relate to other existing MISs? Software Project Management

SA – Programme Management Issues (cont’d) Personnel What are the staff implications? What are the impacts on the overall policy on staff development? Image How does the product affect the image of the organization? Staff implications includes skills and numbers Staff development includes trainings, workshops, seminars, conferences, and magazine subscriptions etc. Software Project Management

SA – Portfolio Management suitable for product developed by a software company for an organization may need to assess the product for the client organization Programme management issues apply need to carry out strategic assessment for the providing software company Software Project Management

SA – Portfolio Management Issues Long-term goal of the software company The effects of the project on the portfolio of the company (synergies and conflicts) Any added-value to the overall portfolio of the company Long-term goal: need to ensure that the project fits into the long-term goal of the software company Portfolio: Specialization versus Diversification Added-value: consider whether the project will have an added-value to the overall portfolio of the company Software Project Management

Technical Assessment Functionality against hardware and software The strategic IS plan of the organization any constraints imposed by the IS plan Functionality: evaluate the functionality of the product against available hardware and software Constraints: constraints imposed by the company’s IS plan will affect the development cost Software Project Management

Economic Assessment Why? Consider whether the project is the best among other options Prioritise the projects so that the resources can be allocated effectively if several projects are underway A common way is to compare the expected costs of development and operation of the system with the benefits of having it in production Software Project Management

Economic Assessment (cont’d) How? Cost-benefit analysis Cash flow forecasting Various cost-benefit evaluation techniques NPV and IRR Cost-benefit analysis is to compare the estimated costs of development and operation of a system with the estimated benefits of putting the system in place. Cash flow forecasting is … Why need Cash flow forecasting? It is because the excess of benefits over costs is not sufficient to justify the implementation of a proposed project. Software Project Management

EA – Cost-benefit Analysis A standard way to assess the economic benefits Two steps Identify and estimate all the costs and benefits of carrying out the project Express the costs and benefits in a common unit for easy comparison (e.g. $) Software Project Management

EA – Cost-benefit Analysis (cont’d) Costs Development costs Setup costs Operational costs Development costs: Salaries and employment costs of staff Hardware and software for development platform Setup cost: cost for putting system in place New hardware and ancillary equipments Database conversion Recruitment of staff Staff training Software Project Management

EA – Cost-benefit Analysis (cont’d) Benefits Direct benefits Assessable indirect benefits Intangible benefits Benefits are quite difficult to quantify in monetary terms even if they are identified. Direct benefits are those accrue directly from the operation of the system. Examples: Reduction of staff employment Re-organization of staff Assessable indirect benefits are the secondary benefits. Example: Increase of accuracy through a more user-friendly screen Intangible benefits relate to those benefits that are longer term in nature or those benefits that are considered very difficult to quantify. Enhanced job interest  lower recruitment costs Software Project Management

EA – Cash Flow Forecasting What? Estimation of the cash flow over time Why? An excess of estimated benefits over the estimated costs is not sufficient Need detailed estimation of benefits and costs versus time Cash flow: income and expenditure Software Project Management

EA – Cash Flow Forecasting (Cont’d) Expenditure Income Need to spend money at first (e.g. staff salary, employment cost, hardware and software costs) no matter where the money comes from e.g. resources from company, or money from the bank If the money is from bank, you need to calculate the interest as well. Software Project Management

EA – Cash Flow Forecasting (Cont’d) Need to forecast the expenditure and the income Accurate forecast is not easy Need to revise the forecast from time to time Expenditure: Staff salary, recrutment costs, bank interest We only calculate the bank interest, if any. Alternatively, we can calculate the bank repayment as one of the expense and the bank loan (principle) as one of the incomes. Income: Payment on completion and Payment by phases Payment by phases is more likely to occur in outsourcing projects. Forecast is not easy: Not much information at the early phases of the project The project may span several years Revise the cash flow forecast quarterly, or even monthly. Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques Example Year Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Project 4 -100,000 -1,000,000 -120,000 1 10,000 200,000 30,000 2 3 20,000 4 25,000 5 100,000 350,000 50,000 Net Profit 60,000 150,000 45,000 Payback ROI 12% 4% 10% 11% Simple example: (where negative values represent net expenses, positive values represent net incomes) Assumptions: 1. Cash flow take place at the end of each year. 2. The year 0 figure represents the initial investment made at the start of the project. Let the student to do the calculation themselves during the lecture. Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques Net profit = Total income – Total costs Payback period = Time taken to break even Return on Investment (ROI) Net profit Advantage: simple to use Disadvantage: ignores the timing of the cash flow Payback period Advantage: simple to calculate, not particular sensitive to small forecasting errors Disadvantage: ignores any income (or expenditure) after the payback period Return on Investment (ROI) Advantage: simple and easy to calculate, quite popular Disadvantage: 1. ignores the timing of the cash flow 2. Potentially very misleading because it is very tempting to compare the rate of return with the current interest rates Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV Net present value (NPV) It is the sum of the present values of all future amounts. Present value is the value which a future amount is worth at present It takes into account the profitability of a project and the timing of the cash flows NPV Advantage: takes into account the profitability of a project and the timing of the cash flows that are produced. Disadvantage: 1. hard to select an appropriate discount rate 2. NPV might not be directly comparable with earnings from other investments or the costs of borrowing capital. Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV (cont’d) Discount rate is the annual rate by which we discount future earning e.g. If discount rate is 10% and the return of an investment in a year is $110, the present value of the investment is $100. Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV (cont’d) Let n be the number of year and r be the discount rate, the present value (PV) is given by Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV (cont’d) Issues in NPV Choosing an appropriate discount rate is difficult Ensuring that the rankings of projects are not sensitive to small changes in discount rate Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV (cont’d) Guidelines: Use the standard rate prescribed by the organization Use interest rate + premium rate Use a target rate of return Rank the projects using various discount rates Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – NPV (cont’d) Disadvantage May not be directly comparable with earnings from other investments or the costs of borrowing capital Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – IRR Internal Rate of Return (IRR) The percentage discount rate that would produce a NPV of zero A relative measure Use Excel to demonstrate the calculation of NPV and IRR. See file ‘lect03-npv.xls’. The IRR being a relative measure does not indicate the absolute size of the return. Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – IRR (cont’d) 11 9 8 -3000 3000 6000 9000 12 10 Discount rate (%) Net Present Value($) Software Project Management

Cost-benefit Evaluation Techniques – IRR (cont’d) Advantages Convenient Directly comparable with rate of return on other projects and with interest rates Useful Dismiss a project due to its small IRR value Indicate further precise evaluation of a project Supported by MS Excel and Lotus 1-2-3 It is convenient in the sense that further calculation are not required. It is useful in the sense that, in many cases, it is sufficient to dismiss a project or indicate further investigation of a project even though it is an approximation. Software Project Management

Estimation Why? – to define the project budget and to ‘refine’ the product to realize the budget Who? – the manager What? – size and cost When? – always How? – techniques and models Software Project Management

Issues related to Estimation Difficult to make accurate estimation Better to have previous data and analyze the actual values against their estimates so that you know how accurate you are Even better to have previous data of the whole organization so that you know how accurate the estimation method, if any, used within the organization is Even you have your own personal historic data and those of the organization, there is still no guarantee that your next estimation is an accurate one.  Software Project Management

Positive Attitude Towards Estimation Use your estimation as a guide to manage your project From time to time, you need to revise your estimation based on the current status of the project Software Project Management

Estimation Approaches Expert judgement Ask the knowledgeable experts Estimation by analogy Use the data of a similar and completed project Pricing to win Use the price that is low enough to win the contract Software Project Management

Estimation Approaches (cont’d) Top-down An overall estimate is determined and then broken down into each component task Bottom-up The estimates of each component task are aggregated to form the overall estimate Algorithmic model Estimation is based on the characteristics of the product and the development environment. Top-down: An 14-month project would have broken down into 4 months on plans and requirements specification; 4 months on months on product design; 2 months on detailed design; 2 months on coding and unit testing; 3 months on integration testing and user-acceptance testing; and 1 month on training. Bottom-up: The reverse of top-down. Most models in estimation are algorithmic models. Software Project Management

Size Estimation Problems related to size estimation Size Estimation Model Function Point Analysis (FPA) Software Project Management

Problems related to size estimation Nature of software Novel application of software Fast changing technology Lack of homogeneity of project experience Subjective nature of estimation Political implications within the organization Nature of software is about its complexity and invisibility Novel application of software: each time the software to be developed has some unique features. Fast changing technology: technology changes very fast, how well the personnel can manage the new technology is still not known yet. Lack of homogeneity of project experience: past data is not available for present estimation Political implications: The marking director tends to push the product to be on the market at an early stage. Project manager may then have a tighter schedule as planned. Software Project Management

References Hughes, B., and Cotterell, M. (1999) Software project management, 2nd ed., McGraw Hill Pfleeger, S.L. (1998) Software Engineering: Theory and Practice, Prentice Hall Royce, W. (1998) Software Project Management: A Unified Framework, Addison Wesley Center for Software Engineering, USC (1999) COCOMO II Model Definition Manual. Software Project Management