Lectures 2 & 3: Portfolio Balance Motivation How can we allow for effects of risk? Currency risk & equity risk (Lecture 2). Country risk (Lecture 3). Key parameters: Risk-aversion, ρ Variance of returns, V Covariances among returns, Cov.

Each investor i at time t allocates shares of his or her portfolio to a menu of assets, as a function of expected return & risk: Sum across investors i to get the aggregate demand for assets, which must equal supply in the market. Invert the function to determine what Etrt+1 must be, for supplies xt to be willingly held. xi, t = βi (Et rt+1 , risk ) .

The general portfolio balance case: The general portfolio balance case: Tobin (1958, 1969)  lots of assets (M, Bonds, Equities), with different attributes &  lots of investors with different preferences. But we will focus more on one-period bonds, and assume uniform preferences among relevant investors. Lecture 2 assumption (most relevant for rich countries): exchange risk is the important risk. We will also consider risk in equity markets. Lecture 3 assumption (most relevant for developing countries): default risk is important.

Portfolio Diversification Starting point: Most investors care not just about expected returns, but also about risk. => rp ≠ 0 => UIP fails. Motivating questions for Portfolio Balance Model:   « What determines the risk premium? How large is it? « How should you manage a portfolio, e.g., a Sovereign Wealth Fund?   « How can we bring more information to bear on the structure of investors’ asset demands? « How do we think about effects of: • Current account deficits, • Budget deficits, and • (sterilized) forex intervention, which had no effects in monetary models?

Open-economy portfolio balance model Demand for foreign bonds by investor i: x i, t = Ai + Bi Et (r ft+1 – r dt+1) ; where x is the share of the portfolio allocated to foreign assets, vs. domestic. « For now, assume foreign assets all denominated in $ (and/or €, ¥, etc.), and domestic assets all denominated in dirham (domestic currency); Then portfolio share xi ≡ S Fi / Wi , where Wi ≡ Di + S Fi ≡ total wealth held; Di ≡ domestic assets held, Fi ≡ foreign assets held, and S ≡ exchange rate. « Assume, for now, no default risk. Then expected real return differential = exchange risk premium rpt ≡ i $t – i d t + Et ∆s t+1 . So x i, t = Ai + Bi rpt .

= Σ [Ai + Bi rpt ] xt = A + B rpt Sum asset demands across all investors in the marketplace: Total demand for foreign assets ≡ xt ≡ Σ [ x i, t ] = Σ [Ai + Bi rpt ] For now assume investors to have identical parameters Ai=A and Bi=B: xt = A + B rpt « where aggregate portfolio share xt ≡ St Ft / Wt , « W ≡ D + SF ≡ total wealth held, « F ≡ total foreign ($) assets held, & « D ≡ total domestic assets held. Financial market equilibrium: assets held = assets supplied….

How do asset supplies get into the market? « Domestic debt is issued by the government: « In “small-country case,” only local residents’ holdings are relevant. Then aggregate supply of foreign assets given by: Note 1: forex intervention, even if sterilized, would subtract from D & add to F. « Note 2: in the general case, the behavior of all investors matters, though x foreigners > x local residents . <= Home bias. See appendix. (The extreme small-country case is: xforeigners = 1.)

Now assume investors diversify optimally Tobin: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.”

Allocation of Portfolio between Bonds & Equity in the Pula Fund “MANAGEMENT OF COMMODITY REVENUES – BOTSWANA’S CASE”   by Linah Mohohlo, Governor, Bank of Botswana, 1999-2016 % allocations to bonds (“fixed income”) vs. equity  very safe ½ & ½ very risky

Efficient Frontier: Allocation of Portfolio between Bonds & Equity “MANAGEMENT OF COMMODITY REVENUES – BOTSWANA’S CASE”   by Linah Mohohlo, Governor, Bank of Botswana, 1999-2016   very risky ½ & ½ very safe

[ Optimally Diversified Portfolios xt = A + B rpt = Minimum-variance + Speculative portfolio portfolio Problem: Choose xt to maximize Et [ U (Wt+1 ) ] Certain assumptions => same problem as Mean-Variance optimization: maximize Φ [E(W+1), V(W+1)] , Φ1>0, Φ2<0. End-of-period wealth W+1 [

} Optimal diversification First-order condition: = 0 . Then . Define , RRA ≡ , & V  V( r$+1 – rd+1). Then . This matches So for the optimal-diversification case B-1 = ρ V and . }

A is the minimum-variance portfolio (in x = A + [ρV] -1 rp): It’s what an investor holds if risk-aversion ρ = ∞. For example, if goods prices are non-stochastic and s+1 is the only source of uncertainty, then V = Var (s+1) and A = α , the share of foreign goods in consumption basket. E.g., if all consumption is domestic (A=α = 0), domestic bonds are safe; very risk-averse investors do not venture abroad (because Cov (rd, r$-rd ) = 0). Also, depending how rp is defined, rp may differ from i - i* - Es by a convexity term = (α – ½) V . (if s+1 is distributed normally, as in the resolution of the Siegal paradox mentioned in an appendix to the forward bias lecture.)

Equities: Whatever is risk-aversion ρ , the optimal portfolio allocates a substantial share abroad, because the min-variance portfolio does. Who holds what portfolio? x ≥ 1.0 ● x=.75 ● Very risk-tolerant Moderately risk-averse x=.3 ● The most risk-averse ● x=0 A foolishly under- diversified American

Macroeconomic Policy Analysis II, Professor Jeffrey Frankel, Appendix: Home bias in portfolio holdings In practice, investors in each country hold relatively more of their own country’s stocks & bonds than the optimal-diversification model seems to say they should. Statistics show that home bias, though high, is declining slowly. Implications for the portfolio balance model? The “small-country” model assumes extreme home bias: Foreigners hold none of the domestic country’s assets. Most finance models go to the opposite extreme: all investors have the same portfolio preferences. The realistic case, e.g., the 2-country model, assumes foreigners have a relatively greater preference for their own assets than do domestic residents. Macroeconomic Policy Analysis II, Professor Jeffrey Frankel,

In practice, most equities are held by domestic residents but this “home bias” has slowly declined.

Home bias in equity holdings has slowly declined.

The 2-country portfolio-balance model Foreign residents are in the market for domestic vs. foreign assets, alongside home residents, with weights wH vs. wF. Now aggregate: . A difference in consumption preferences, H < F , for home vs. foreign residents => some preference for local assets, AH < AF (home bias). If the domestic country runs a CA surplus => Its share of world wealth, wH, rises over time, and foreigners’ share falls. => Domestic preference, AH , receives increasing weight in total global demand. => Global demand for domestic assets rises. => Required expected return falls.