NASA's Flight Missions, Present to 2020 Richard Fisher Heliophysics Division NASA HQ NASA's Flight Missions, Present to 2020 Space Weather Workshop 30 April 2008

NASA's programs provide a strategic "research arm" for our National Space Weather Program … and ~2-6$M invested/per mission for SW data support

Heliophysics Objectives Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard Our Outward Journey Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

The Strategic Triad of Heliophysics Programs Theory Models Data

The Strategic Triad of Heliophysics Programs Theory Models Data Change over past five yrs: LWS TR&T: ~90$M invested Theory: ~3$M/year SR&T: 10% increase CCMC: significant investment toward model verification and other services Data environment: VxO & resident archive investment nearing fruition 9 VxOs Holding and the distributing the data

New Space Weather Forecasting Tool from Heliophysics Science Program EVA Abort Command Issued Solar electrons reach the Earth-moon system about one hour before the solar proton radiation hazard arrives. This sketch is an artists‘ view of the radiation field in the inner heliosphere ~ten minutes after the release of solar energetic particles from the Sun. The Posner research has shown that relativistic electrons … electrons traveling at nearly the speed of light …are always present in solar particle eruptions. That is, for impulsive events at the Sun, such as a flare, the event appears to accelerate all particles to relativistic energies. Because the electrons travel much faster than the protons, the onset of MeV protons at 1AU is always delayed over the onset of relativistic electrons. Moreover, it has been found that events maintain coherence to the degree that for an observer sitting at Earth, the rate of increase in electron and proton intensities are correlated and largely determined by the magnetic connection distance from the flare location to the foot point of the observer. For the event shown in the paper and illustrated here, the relativistic electrons reached 1 AU at the time when the ~30MeV protons were still within 0.2 AU from the flare location. The fast-moving electrons follow the magnetic field ahead of the protons almost instantaneously connecting to L1-based monitoring equipment. The warning electrons can be used as a reliable sign of a pending proton storm ahead. When the electron signal is detected, operational decisions can be made for a proactive response to the pending event … rather than a reactive response to an event already engulfing an explorer. NEXT SLIDE … New research has shown that electrons traveling at the speed of light are always present in solar particle eruptions. These electrons – traveling much faster than the hazardous solar energetic protons – follow the magnetic lines of force from the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, they can be used as a reliable early warning sign of hazardous radiation ahead.

Electron Rise Parameter Even in the case of the fastest-rising major proton event on record (Jan. 20, 2005), the electron precursor signal was detected 20-25 minutes in advance. EVA Abort Complete SOHO COSTEP: A one-hour warning has the potential to provide the advanced notice needed for efficient EVA planning. Here we show the concept twenty minutes to one hour later when the hazardous solar protons have reached the Earth-moon system. Depending on the time necessary for any given operational decision …. such as an EVA abort … the exposure of astronauts to the protons can be reduced substantially with this early warning technique. The average delay time, as you will see in just a few slides, is on the order of an hour. Although more dangerous events can be faster. In their paper, the Posner team studied the events listed in the NOAA GOES Proton Event List. This set of events contains all major solar particle events during the years 1996 through 2002, and is also useful because it includes smaller and intermediate size events. The team developed an empirically-based forecasting matrix … given a measure of the intensity of the precursor electrons, and how fast the intensity engulfs you, one can predict the approximate intensity of the proton storm coming from behind. As you may see here, slower rising electron events portend a less intense proton event. Such forecast matrices have been developed for a range of energy bandpasses for a fairly complete forecast of the pending proton energy spectra. This work was found to be immediately useful by the Johnson Space Center Space Radiation Analysis Group. These are the folks charged with ensuring that the radiation exposure received by astronauts is within established safety limits. The forecasting model uses real-time data from the SoHO COSTEP instrument and began operational use early this year. I have to give one caution at this point …the basic premise behind this forecasting technique … that electrons and protons accelerated promptly close to the sun travel to the Earth-Sun system at a rate proportional to their mass … is designed for forecasting prompt events that to originate close to the Sun. As we know though, interplanetary shocks also accelerate protons to energies above 10 MeV in large numbers during shock transits between the Sun and the Earth system. Luckily though, the energy spectra for these DELAYED EVENTS can be quite soft and only a few events have been detected beyond 30 MeV. Also these shock-related events tend to rise slowly compared to the PROMPT events and so, until new forecasting techniques are developed for these DELAYED events, actual proton measurements at L1 are usually sufficient to reduce exposure, as the increase in intensity from such events is much more gradual in comparison to the PROMPT events …. NEXT SLIDE …. OTHER NOTES: The Posner team has noted that a more focused event list tailored for human exploration activities at the moon may be able to predict a lower limit for flux values for protons above 30 MeV. Electron Intensity This is an important example of the potential for further rapid transition of SMD Research to SOMD/ESMD Operations – May 2007 to Feb 2008 – this new prediction tool has entered V&V by the JSC/SRAG for future Shuttle, ISS, and CEV operations. Slow Fast Electron Rise Parameter Empirical Forecasting Matrices Translate Solar Electron Data into +1h Proton Hazard Forecast (Posner, Space Weather, 2007)

Current Fleet of Heliophysics Assets (including strategic partnerships with other national and international agencies) TWINS (2) C/NOFS This is an illustration of our current fleet of missions. Many are Earth-orbiting … several are deployed further out in our solar system. All, without exception, are science missions and are regularly reviewed for their continued science value. All, without exception, perform science functions that inform our nations Space Weather Research efforts. What I want to review with you today though, is the status of those that we ALSO leverage for the purpose of providing real-time or near-real-time space environment monitoring data. We believe very strongly that good data is GOOD DATA and if it is at all possible to go that extra mile to provide access to that data for useful SW purposes, Dr. Fisher has made a commitment to do so. AIM White = deployed Yellow = in development

ACE a "gold-standard" for L1 Space Weather monitoring In addition to the prime objective of discovering the composition of the solar corona, solar wind, local interstellar medium (ISM), galactic matter, ACE represents: TWINS (2) C/NOFS a "gold-standard" for L1 Space Weather monitoring has resources to maintain ops beyond ~2024 national effort required to maintain similar capability for the future AIM

SoHO In addition to the prime objective of studying the Sun, from its deep core to the outer corona, and the solar wind: a prime source of near-real time solar data for space weather prediction (although not quite 24-7 beacon mode) intent is to maintain SW capabilities through the Bogart mode into the next decade TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

STEREO In addition to the prime objective of understanding the fundamental nature and origin of coronal mass ejections: near real-time SW beacon for images, in-situ particle and fields, and radio data Important SW asset until spacecraft move beyond contact horizon Research to Ops demonstration of importance of off-axis observations TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

C/NOFS TWINS Caution: not NASA prime assets! capability exists for real-time near-Earth space environment data Opportunity for inter-agency cooperation for supply of new type of SW data and operational models? TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

SDO In addition to the prime objective of understanding the how and why of the Sun's magnetic changes: real-time, full resolution access to solar irradiance data and the source of that irradiance anticipated to be important real-time SW asset to advance state-of-the-art predictions Research to Ops challenge of high resolution spatial, temporal, & spectral information TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

RBSP/MMS In addition to the prime objectives of these missions: Intent is to deploy SW beacons on these missions if deemed feasible, economical, and beneficial. Research to Ops challenge will be the adoption of a distributed sensor net coupled to large-scale data-assimilation space environment models.  TWINS (2) C/NOFS AIM

Flight Mission Development to 2020