AP HUMAN GEOGRAPHY CHAPTER 5 CLASS NOTES Processes and Cycles of Population Change

UNIT 2 ESSENTIAL Q What does Population tell us about the world, its countries, & their relationships to one another?

CH. 5 Guiding Q What does population growth and the TYPE of growth tell us about a country’s Demographic Transition Stage? (DTS MODEL)

The Population Explosion of the 20th Century!!! What have been the keys to Human Population GROWTH??? Carrying Capacity (Matrix Scene)

Thomas Malthus Theory Population increases at an Exponential rate Means of Subsistence (food supply) increases at an Arithmetic rate So what will happen???

Malthus Theory

Pick a Side! Is Malthus correct??? Neo-Malthusian: Supports ideas of Malthus Anti-Malthusian: NOT in agreement!!! What are arguments against Malthus? Why theory not true??? (At least 100%)

Malthus Theory

Natural Increase (POP.) ??? Crude Birth Rate (CBR) Crude Death Rate (CDR) Infant vs. Child Mortality Rate Why is this data important to know???

High Birth & Death Rate Where in the World do we see??? WHY!!!!

Low Birth / Death Rate Where in the world do we see??? WHY!!!!!

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) # of children born to women of child bearing age Why are TFRs falling in the world??? Replacement Fertility Rate (A TFR of 2.1 is needed to maintain a stable population over time (50 countries below this) = Negative Growth!!!

Past Limits on Population Growth (until 19th Century) What (past) kept Human POP in check??? (What Changed???)

High Life Expectancy

Demographic Change Formula To figure out the Total POP. change TP = OP + B – D + I – E TP : total population OP: original population B: births D: deaths I: Immigration E: Emigration

Living Old… DEPENDENCY RATIO – Ratio of # of people either too old or too young to provide for themselves TO the # of people who must support them through their own labor n : 100 n = the number of dependents AGE RANGES??? POP PYRAMID

POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids)

POPULATION PYRAMIDS (“Age – Sex” Pyramids) What does this tell us???

Account for Variations??

Dependency Ratio Show Pop Pyr Vid

What is the PROBLEM Here!!!

What is happening to POP in each??? Rapid Growth (MISC Events) Slow Growth Negative Growth Kenya Baby Boom USA Italy, Germany Nigeria Baby Bust UK, France Singapore, Japan Jordan, Yemen Mass Migration Gov’t Policy

Nigeria 1963

Nigeria 2003 Show Fertility Rate VID

Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

Demographic Transition (Cycle) 4 STAGES MODEL Development Model Using: BR / DR (Based on Europe Model of Growth (UK)) 1. High Stationary Stage – high fertility (BR), high mortality (DR), little long term POP growth Subsistence Econ, Farming, Mining (very poor, undeveloped countries) -Really NO country today in Stage 1

Demographic Transition Cycle MODEL

2. Early Expanding Stage – high BR, declining DR POP growth rate high Development / State Organization / Gov’t., Food Supply & Country Stable, Health, Resource Exploitation, Trade

DTC con. 3. Late Expanding Stage - Now declining BR, already low DR so continued POP growth, but will slow Industrialization (Rev.), Social Change (Women) Manufacturing Base, Urbanization, Trade, Econ. Opportunities

4. Low Stationary Stage – low fertility, low mortality, low POP growth rate (level off – TFR at or below 2.1) Modernization, Education, Women Rights, Service Economics, Consumerism = CORE COUNTRIES (Rich, Industrialized)

Key Questions… Why Unwise to assume that ALL countries’ growth follows DTCM (Europe)? Stationary Population Level (SPL) (DTM Stage 5?) World’s pop. will stop growing in 21st Cen. (Will Stabilize) Why??? How???

CH. 5 Guiding Q What does population growth and the type of growth tell us about a country’s demographic transition stage?