Population Dynamics Dr. Salem Thawaba Birzeit University

Human Population Dynamics 1-Population Development Modern humans (30,000-50,000) efficient hunting, and more control on environment. 12,000 BC, human population was 10 millions. Beginning of agriculture stage (growing of grain and vegetables and raising of animals), first permanent settlements were established 7000 B.C. (Pakistan, China, Africa, Egypt and Iraq), communities established, civilizations developed, manufacturing techniques evolved.

World population in A.D.0 was estimated 250 million. In 1750 population increased to 750 million (because of settlement, and improving agricultural practice, and domestic animals) “more healthy conditions” In 1750 industrial revolution began in Europe and North America.

During 100 years the population of Europe and N During 100 years the population of Europe and N. America was doubled (400 million by the year1850). 1750-1950, The population of the world increased from 2.5 billion to more than 5 billion. In the mid 1990s the world population was 5.5 billion, adding 100 million each year. Recently it is 6.6 billion people. 8 billion 2020, 10 billion in 2050.

Last 200 years or less for Last 50 years or less Industrial Revolution Improvement in sanitation and medicine Last 50 years or less Transfer of technology, i.e. medical, agricultural (Green Revolution)

Growth of the world population in some major historic ages .

2- Population densities Surface area of earth = 197 million square miles. 75% of the earth is uninhabitable, 71% ocean and 4% in Antarctic and the Greenland icecap. We can live on 25% of the earth, which is 0.25 ×197 × 10^6 = 49.25 × 10^6 square miles.

Human Population is 6 billion, so the density is (6 × 10^9) / (49.25 × 10^6) ~ 120 people per square mile. (it was 111 people per sq.mile in 1995). Means that each person would have 5.3 acres (acre is about a football field). Mongolia, 4 people per sq. mile. Tokyo (8 million), 34,000 people per sq. mile.

China (1.2 billion), 300 people per sq. mile. India (900 million), 800 people per sq. mile. Europe, exceeds the average by factor of 3 to 4.

Europe and Japan demonstrate high population densities. Crowding in a country like India, comes from the cities, Influx of people coming from the countryside for better living conditions and services and mainly for jobs, is faster than services. For example Bombay was a city of 1.0 million in 1948 and in the mid of 1990s it has more than 10 million people.

Estimated populations of megacities in 21st century

3 - (Developed, North, Industrial)/ (Developing, South) 1995 4.4 b. in Developing countries-77% And 1.3 b. in developed countries – 23% 2025 developing – 84% And 16% developed. Today, India and China together account for 37 % of the world’s population.

Developed and developing countries

Urbanization: 1950 30% of the World lived in cities 1985 41% 2025 60%

In 1970, 4 cities had pop. More than 10 M. 1985, 10 cities, 6 in the developing world. 1995, 15 – 11 in the developing world. 2020, 24 – 18.

3 fifths of the world consume very little and live on the edge of poverty level One fifth in extreme poverty. One fifth lives in good conditions Developed con. (25%) used 70% world energy (1993). US of pop. 4.6% consumed 20% fossil fuel Developing con. (75%) consumed 29% commercial energy. India (16%), consumed 2% of global energy.

Consumption patterns.

Birth rate (developing) 30-50 per 1,000. In developed, 10-15. Fertility (developing) 6-8. In developed (US-2.1, UK-1.8, Japan-1.5) Life expectancies(developing)40-60 In developed 70. Age under 15 (developing) 40%-50%. In developed 20%.

Yemen has the world's highest fertility rate 7. 6%, with Oman (7 Yemen has the world's highest fertility rate 7.6%, with Oman (7.2%), Uganda (7.1%) and Niger (7.1%) close behind.  The lowest infant mortality rate is in Japan, at 4 deaths per 1,000 births. The highest is in Sierra Leone at 169.5 infant deaths per births. Global fertility has fallen from 5 births per woman in the 1950s to 2.7 births per woman. UNFPA

Population growth. In 1994: 1 second 6 humans 1 minute 360 1 hour 21,600 1 day 518,400 1 week 3,628,800 1 month 15,768,000 1 year 189,216,000

“If the population of the world were to grow at the present rate for six hundred years, There would then be only one square yard per person It is inconceivable that this should happen, But the important question is: Why will it not happen?” P. Appleman, the Silent Explosion, p. 137