Group on Earth Observations XIV Plenary GEO Week 2017 Global Drought Information System (GDIS) Global Initiative Will Pozzi, Executive Director USA NOAA National Climate Data Center National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) NOAA National Climate Program US Drought Task Force

Presentation Topics Why Global? Global Drought Vulnerability Water Sustainable Development Goal 6.4

Why Global? Droughts can be synchronized across both Western and Eastern Hemispheres Droughts can cover significant proportions of North America, Sub Saharan West Africa, Horn of Africa (East Africa), East Asia (particularly China), South Asia, the Philippines and Indonesia, Southern South America, and Australia The largest Droughts can be produced by global secondary atmospheric-ocean circulations Ninety-five percent of droughts in Eastern Australia occur during El Nino episodes (but a drought does not occur during every single El Nino) Sahel Droughts occur during Southern Tropical Atlantic Ocean SST transients Mediterranean droughts occur during North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) episodes Russian droughts can occur during West Russia East Atlantic Patterns Droughts can increase during Climate Transients CMIP5 predicts increases in drought frequency in the future

The current month’s Global Drought Information System (http://www

Continental Drought Monitors support Higher Resolution Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) in the Global Drought Observatory of the Joint Research Centre (European Commission) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI-3) in the South America Drought Observatory of the Joint Research Centre (European Commission)

Continental Drought Monitors support Higher Resolution Fraction of Absorbed PAR Anomalies, a measure of water stress in vegetation

Drought Identification cannot be completely automated Requires Consultation among Drought Managers, Meteorologists, Hydrologists, Groundwater specialists, Agricultural Operators, and Ecologists

Drought Vulnerability Like other natural hazards, drought impacts contain both a natural and a social component Vulnerability to drought varies spatially and is determined by social factors that lead to exposure, coping mechanisms, and resilience. The social factors include number of people exposed, per capita water availability, and water use trends which change over time.

Water Sustainable Development Goal Target 6 Water Sustainable Development Goal Target 6.4 “By 2030 substantially increase the water use efficiency across all sectors, and ensure sustainable withdrawals and supply of freshwater to address water scarcity, and substantially reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity.”

Water Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 6 Water Sustainable Development Goal Indicator 6.4 “Level of water stress: freshwater withdrawals as a proportion of available freshwater resources.”

Two Activities involving the largest Water Withdrawal Agriculture Energy Power Plant Cooling Water

Activity involving the largest Water Consumption Agriculture Note: Water consumption in the energy sector is no larger than energy consumption in the other industrial sectors (however, the magnitude of impacts (consumption) can vary spatially with location).

What can the Group on Earth Observations do What can the Group on Earth Observations do? (with regards to the Water Sustainable Development Goal 6.4) Agriculture: 1.Develop Satellite Constellation to Monitor Agricultural Crop Types and Crop Areas 2.Monitor Water Consumption over these agricultural areas (evapotranspiration) Energy: 1.Identify Water Consumption (and Withdrawal) per plant type (Subcritical and supercritical pulverized coal fossil fuel plants, natural gas combined cycle plants, and Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle, nuclear plants, and concentrated solar) and plant age.

Agricultural Satellite Constellation Revisit frequency has to be high enough to capture multiple cloud-free images during each growing season GEOGLAM (GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring): Lansat, Sentinel 2, and India Resourcesat 30 meter medium resolution is not high enough to resolve subsistence plots in Sub Saharan Africa, India, Indonesia, Central America, and other areas. (Whitcraft, et al 2015, remote sensing, 7)

What is the Global Drought Information System? Partnership catalyzing innovation in global drought research Partnership with World Climate Research Program (& GEWEX) Drought Interest Group on the WCRP Grand Challenge for Extremes Partnership with World Meteorological Organization Assists Regional Climate Centers under Global Framework of Climate Services for drought monitoring, forecasting, and early warning Partnership with ECMWF exploring the limits of probabililstic seasonal drought forecasting Development/Deployment of Continental Drought Databases for each continent Verifying Rigorous Documentation of Global Drought Incidence, Spatial Extent, and Duration to monitor rates of change of drought with climate change for IPCC

Global Drought Information System Governance World Meteorological Organization Group on Earth Observations World Climate Research Program