What is the data telling us about international student recruitment? AARON PORTER Director of Insights aaron.porter@hotcourses.com @AaronPorter

Agenda Topics for discussion Geopolitical changes over the last 2 years have shaken up the global student market. What has happened? How can Insights shape your international recruitment strategy? Topics for discussion Introducing Insights TEF – early signs Understanding Brexit Trump, travel ban, Trudeau International Student Survey

Introducing Insights

Why is data so important? Creates understanding of the sector allowing better decision making and increased efficiency and effectiveness Identify opportunities: New geographical markets, new target audiences. Identify threats: Competitors, declining demand, new modes of study

Making sense of big data We now live in a world of big data and the Higher Education sector has as significant amounts of data. External data HESA UCAS Hotcourses Group Insights Internal data Enquiries Applicants Enrolments

Using the right data at the right time DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS (Population, wealth, mobility etc.) PRE-HE ATTAINMENT (Schools, K12 data) STUDENT RESEARCH (Hotcourses, Google Analytics etc.) GRADUATION (Completion, DLHE etc.) ENROLLMENT (Student Records Systems, HESA etc.) ENQUIRY & APPLICATION (Internal, National systems eg. UCAS)

Insights Data Our Insights tool uses the data from our 69 million visitors to identify real-time student behaviour, demographics, trends and market demand. Provides access to a unique data source (a larger sample than UCAS) which is real-time and is searchable by key indicators such as: subject, location, socio-economic background, competitor institution. Show the impact of BREXIT on student searches in real-time What impact is TEF having on student demand now? What courses are popular this year and with whom? Which second tier Indian cities is my university popular in? Which areas of the UK are my competitors recruiting students from? When are students starting their university searches?

Real time Insights Tool Domestic Tool Performance Tool International Tool 69m global users across the Hotcourses sites

TEF early signs

TEF – Wonkhe analysis IS TEF MAKING A DIFFERENCE? Wonkhe’s David Kernohan analysis of UK prospective student interest in TEF. IS TEF MAKING A DIFFERENCE?

TEF – early signs

Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change) TEF impact – who cares? Searches from UK and India for TEF ranked institutions (% change) July – Oct 2016 vs July – Oct 2017 UK India UK India UK India

Understanding Brexit

UCAS EU applications dropped by 5% Brexit impact - EU demand One year on from the EU Referendum, how can we quantify the impact of the leave vote? UCAS EU applications dropped by 5%

Smaller slice, larger pie UK market share of searches may be down, but volumes are up…

EU funding announcement How much impact did the UK government’s EU funding announcement have on search trends?

EU funding, offsets UK decline Impact of UK gov EU funding announcement on study European student searches.

Trump, travel ban, Trudeau

Trump effect on Middle East How has the US Presidential vote impacted Middle Eastern study choices?

Trump’s travel ban - Iran How did Trump’s travel ban impact Iranian study choices? Executive Order 13769

India – the Canada story Canada success story is prominent in Indian searches. The UK also fares well.

Trend Spotting (India over time) JUL 15 - JAN 16 - DEC 15 JUN 16 JUL 16 - JAN 17 - DEC 16 JUN 17 Source: Hotcourses

India – the Canada story Canada has jumped from 5th most popular to the most popular study destination. Demand from India for destinations (market share) 12 months prior to and after 1 Nov 2017 Rank 1 Nov 2015-31 Oct 2016 1 Nov 2016-31 Oct 2017 1 USA 27.8% Canada 23.0% 2 Australia 17.7% 19.8% 3 UK 13.2% 15.6% 4 Singapore 10.9% 13.5% 5 10.3% 8.1% 6 New Zealand 9.1% 7.8% 7 Malaysia 5.0% 3.3% 8 Ireland 2.0% 2.7% 9 Netherlands 1.4% 1.7% 10 Other 2.6% 4.5%

India – regional diversification Regional shifts in India are occurring. Delhi in particular has seen big drops. 2015-16 2016-17

International student survey

Survey of our users What are the key issues influencing prospective international students? Total responses – 1,964 Key findings: Most international students consider university as the No.1 factor when planning to study abroad (39%), followed by course (37%) and country (24%) However in Indonesia and Brazil, course was the number factor. Topic issues for international students when choosing a university (most important, 4 or 5/5): Career prospects/Graduate outcomes 86.3% Cost of study (e.g. tuition fees, living costs) 85.9% Security/Safety 85.7% Scholarship options 85.1% Academic strength/Teaching quality 84.6% Student welfare (apart from HC Russia) 77.1% Top faculties/Subject areas/Courses (apart from HC Thailand) 75.7% Admissions/Entry requirements/English language requirements 70.8%

Build content around students Teaching/Provision

Survey - Key takeaways Institution is most important. You need to think about how you are getting your brand out there. Politics matters, but it’s not insurmountable. Whether you’re governed by Trump or Trudeau get your positive message across. Course content is important. Need to provide in-depth course information. Keep your course portfolio under review. An important gateway for student choice.

Conclusion – the world has changed Real-time data is essential given the pace of change. UCAS, HESA etc cannot be used for agile destination and individual uni marketing anymore. TAKE OUTS FROM TODAY More competitive, volatile market, new players Despite this, pockets of opportunity to be found at regional level Students more aware and receptive to macroeconomic factors than ever with internet, social media Real-time data combined with prospective student surveys needed to react to rapidly changing demand

Insights@hotcoursesgroup.com aaron.porter@hotcourses.com Thank you Insights@hotcoursesgroup.com aaron.porter@hotcourses.com @HotcoursesGroup