Chapter 2 Population and Health Part 2 Key Issues 3 and 4

Key Issue 3 Why Does Population Growth Vary Among Regions?

Demographic Transition CLICK TO READ Demographic Transition CLICK TO WATCH

Thinking Like A Geographer How/why do demographers use the DTM? How does the DTM show population change over time? Is the DTM still hold true /relevant?

Is the DTM Still Relevant? Critics Say… Based on England only Population growing much faster then ever before Graying Population living longer than ever Medical Revolution- 1900’s

Will There Be a Stage 5? A possible Stage 5 would include countries in which fertility rates have fallen significantly below replacement level (2 children) and the elderly population is greater than the youthful population.

Once Again- Just For Fun! Click on any image to learn more! Animation Song Lecture Rap

Think About It…

Declining Birth Rates A result of Better education for girls and women and knowledge of health care Widespread use of family planning/contraception (NOT a universally accepted practice)

Use of Family Planning Fig. 2-22: Both the extent of family planning use and the methods used vary widely by country and culture.

Malthus on Overpopulation Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus was an English demographer best known for his pessimistic but highly influential views Argued that the population would out run their food, because food increased mathematically and population increased exponentially. Believed war, disease, or famine would equalize population growth unless people used “moral restraint” (February, 1766 – December 23, 1834)

Pick A Green… Any Green CLICK TO WATCH

Neo-Malthusians Claim that more LDC’s are in stage 2 of the demographic transition that ever before in history, thus putting a larger strain on the food supply Believe population growth is out-stripping not just food production, but a wide variety of resources, such as oil and natural gas Argue that population will be in check because of the scarcity of food will increase war, disease and death

Boserup’s Theory Danish economist who theorized that food production can, and will, increase to match the needs of the population. Believed that the threat of starvation and the challenge of feeding more mouths motivates people to improve their farming methods and invent new technologies to produce more food.

Food & Population, 1950-2000 Malthus vs. Actual Trends Fig. 2-20: Malthus predicted population would grow faster than food production, but food production actually expanded faster than population in the 2nd half of the 20th century.

Japan’s Population Decline Japan’s NIR is shrinking Will impact the dependency ratio Immigration is not encouraged Mothers encouraged not to work

Population Futures… Stage 5? Demographers predict the global population will be 9.5 billion by 2050 The majority of the growth will be in LDCs MDCs may move into Stage 5 of the DTM CBRs are lowering, but CDRs are rising (many more elderly)

India’s Population Policies 1st country to develop government family planning program Educate women about birth control, clinics and free birth control devices Legal abortions Sterilization in return for a payment

China’s Population Policies CLICK TO LEARN MORE In 1980, the Chinese government began a temporary one-child policy Need a government permit to have a child Age restrictions on marriage Rewards for having just one child Wealthy families sometimes pay a fee for a second child

Key Issue 4 Why Do Some Regions Face Health Issues?

The Epidemiologic Transition Epidemiologists study the occurrence, distribution, and control of disease that are prevalent among a population during special times, causes, and circumstances The Epidemiologic Transition connects specific health threats to each stage of the DTM Epidemiologists strive to understand distinctive distribution and diffusion patterns of diseases

Quick Overview

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 1 (High CDR) Stage 1 – Infectious/parasitic disease, accidents, animal attacks Black Plague is a Stage 1 example: killed 25 million- ½ of Europe’s population

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 2 (Rapidly Declining CDR) Stage 2 – Receding Pandemics Cholera is a Stage 2 example

The Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 3 (Moderately Declining CDR) Stage 3- Degenerative and human created diseases Decrease in deaths from infectious diseases and an increase in disorders associated with aging Cardiovascular disease and cancer

Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 4 (Low, but Increasing CDRs) APHG Population - Chapter 2 Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 4 (Low, but Increasing CDRs) Stage 4- Delayed degenerative diseases such as heart diseases and cancer Life is extended through medical advances llhammon Spring 2013

Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 5? Reemergence of Infectious Diseases APHG Population - Chapter 2 Epidemiologic Transition: Stage 5? Reemergence of Infectious Diseases reasons for a POSSIBLE Stage 5 Evolution of new strains of diseases (Malaria) Poverty (TB) Globalization and easier travel (H1N1, SARS, AIDS) llhammon Spring 2013

HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2011 APHG Population - Chapter 2 HIV/AIDS Prevalence Rates, 2011 The highest HIV infection rates are in sub-Saharan Africa. India and China have large numbers of cases, but lower infection rates at present. llhammon Spring 2013

SARS Infections in China, 2003 APHG Population - Chapter 2 SARS Infections in China, 2003 China had 85 percent of the world's SARS cases in 2003. Within China, the infection was highly clustered in Guangdong Province, Hong Kong, and Beijing. llhammon Spring 2013

Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000 APHG Population - Chapter 2 Tuberculosis Death Rates, 2000 The tuberculosis death rate is a good indicator of a country’s ability to invest in health care. TB is still one of the world’s largest infectious-disease killers. llhammon Spring 2013

Indicators of Health Demographers also look at infant mortality and life expectancy data Both these data sets follow the MDC/LDC pattern

Provisions of Health Care

Medical Services Most MDCs pay high percentage of medicals costs fro its citizens (USA an exception) Even in MDCs, governments must make choices… less coverage or higher taxes People in LDCs have little help with medical costs

Case Study: Sub-Saharan Africa In some areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, people have exceeded the carrying capacity of the region-not enough resources fro the number of people. This is partly the natural environment, and partly human action. Since women often are responsible for finding food, additional children are a short-term asset

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