Macro Outlook

Brief Macro Outlook – October TRINITY SMF Brief Macro Outlook – October

Federal Reserve Interest rates Labour market TRINITY SMF Federal Reserve Interest rates Labour market FX – Interest rates, retail sales, Industrial Production. Outlook Is this bull run coming to an end?

ECB Inflation pick up Current monetary policy stance TRINITY SMF ECB Inflation pick up Current monetary policy stance Future? Predict aggressively loose monetary policy finally to lead to a pick-up in Eurozone Inflation by the end of the year. Pick up in the euro

TRINITY SMF Germany Remains economic powerhouse of Europe with domestic demand driving growth Tight labour market to pass through to wages and consumer Data has not been hectic – PMIs falling, Industrial production Merkel to announce in December whether to run for chancellor, populist AfD since gained support causing potential political headwinds

TRINITY SMF France Inflation pressures remain subdued, oil price should see an uptick Despite one-off events, PMIs up in 3/4 sectors restoring of confidence, including services sector (70% of GDP) Dire labour market conditions - 10.5% unemployment just below 18 year high.

Britain GDP slowing BoE Monetary policy stance TRINITY SMF Britain GDP slowing BoE Monetary policy stance GBP falls to 31-year low, series of depreciations FTSE 100 value, vary of FTSE 250 companies Data has been positive – Retail, manufacturing and services

TRINITY SMF Switzerland Maintaining an expansionary monetary policy, deposit rate -0.75 Inflation forecasts trimmed back – 0.3% – 0.2% in 2017, 0.9% - 0.6% in 2018 The value of the Swiss Franc has held steady YTD.

Commodities Oil Production cut raises prices Not overly bullish – why? TRINITY SMF Commodities Oil Production cut raises prices Not overly bullish – why? Gold Gradual softening since Brexit vote Trump and U.S. interest rates