Making Space for Water Risk Mapping: Coastal Erosion Project Update Southeast Strategic Regional Coastal Monitoring Programme Friday 19th October 2007 Geoff Astle Senior Project Manager Environment Agency Geoff.Astle@Environment-Agency.gov.uk

Making Space for Water Programme/Project Brief MSfW Programme Brief: “To provide greater clarity for both the public and those involved in flood and coastal erosion risk management” Project Brief: “…we will identify appropriate means to develop our coverage in order to model and map the risks from coastal erosion…” “…identify appropriate means of making this information publicly available. ”

Coastal Erosion (HA4b) Project Objectives Map the coastline susceptible to erosion and instability from natural processes Predict future coastline positions based on existing defences and management practices Consider ways in which both hazard and risk associated with coastal erosion can be generated for England Look at ways in which this can be graphically illustrated through mapping Develop processes to support implementation of the above Contribute to wider review of policy, regulation, organisation responsibility and communications strategy

Risk Mapping: Coastal Erosion (HA4b) Project Scope England and Wales The assessment should cover the whole of the coastline (defended and undefended) Not estuaries (as defined by first round SMP boundaries) Erosion only Not flooding (complement flood maps) Nor flooding as a consequence of erosion

Coastal Erosion (HA4b) Project Products Local Authorities 1 to 10,000 scale maps To inform SMP2 development, planning process, etc General Public 1 to 50,000 scale maps To complement “What’s in Your Back Yard” Flood Maps

Making Space for Water FD2324 and HA4b FD2324: R&D, Defra, 2005 HA4b: National application of FD2324 FD2324 HA4b

Making Space for Water FD2324/RACE

Making Space for Water FD2324/RACE Techniques for Coastal Defences Techniques for Recession Engineering Judgement Qualitative Assessment Broad Numerical Analysis Detailed Calculation of Failure Probabilistic Models Technical Judgement Futurecoast Assessment Site Specific Assessment Single Rate Recession Method Probabilistic Models

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Collate Database Software Tools (x3) Processes & User Guide Create baseline position

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Collate Database Software Tools (x3) Processes & User Guide Create baseline position

Making Space for Water HA4b Create Baseline: Database Spatial Data OS MasterMap Aerial Photography LiDAR Recession Data Defra’s Futurecoast Defence Data NFCDD Bespoke Data

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Collate Database Software Tools (x2) Processes & User Guide Create baseline position

Making Space for Water HA4b Create Baseline: Software

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Collate Database Software Tools (x2) Processes & User Guide Create baseline position

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Create Database Create Software Tools (x2) Test tools & processes Create baseline position First National Run

Making Space for Water HA4b First National Pass No defences No active intervention Current management policy 3 Epochs: 20, 50, 100 years Best estimate and confidence bands

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Create Database Create Software Tools (x2) Test tools & processes Create baseline position First National Pass “Beta” Testing

Making Space for Water HA4b Beta Testing Independent consultants Local Authorities Selected frontages Further modification of software and user guide

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Create Database Create Software Tools (x2) Test tools & processes Create baseline position First National Pass “Beta” Testing November 2007 Local Validation

Making Space for Water HA4b Local Validation Support Initial Training 6-week windows Telephone Support Local Validation Update initial coastline position Update recession information Update defence parameters Re-run erosion calculations Confirm results Provide feedback

Making Space for Water HA4b Local Validation

Making Space for Water HA4b Local Validation

Making Space for Water HA4b Project Timelines Project Inception June 2006 Create Database Create Software Tools (x2) Test tools & processes Create baseline position First National Pass “Beta” Testing November 2007 Local Validation Initial Hazard Maps March 2008 Risk Maps December 2008

Making Space for Water HA4b Risk Maps Scoping of Asset Quantification Identification and Source property, infrastructure, landmarks, etc. Assessment of Use applicability on a national scale, currency, accessibility, licensing implications, etc. Quantification Mechanisms assessment of means of quantification (cost, count, area, etc.) Presentation of Results graphical and tabular presentation of the final results

Making Space for Water Current Project Position: Beta testing/further refinement of software First National Run (3 scenarios) Finalising & communicating programme for Local Validation Local Validation begins November 2007

Making Space for Water Thank You Geoff.Astle@Environment-Agency.gov.uk