What is happening to religion in S. Korea? Age, period, and cohort patterns of religious change in the past three decades Chaeyoon Lim (University of Wisconsin – Madison) October, 2017 Pew Research Center

Census 1985 - 2015 Sharp decline of % Buddhist Wild swing of % Catholic Protestant standing their ground Rise of None A big change for a decade

Are These Changes Real?

Measuring Religious Affiliation in Census Two-step question (except for 1985) Do you have religion? (If you have a religion) What is your religion? Several notable changes over time in procedure Layout of the questionnaire changed (2005 was unique) Response options changed (Protestant & Catholic vs. Christian (Protestant) & Christian (Catholic)) Sample (20%) and web survey in 2015 Proxy response

Trends in KGSS 2003-2014

% Protestant in National Surveys vs Census Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

% Catholic in National Surveys vs Census - Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

% Buddhist in National Surveys vs Census Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

% No Religion in National Surveys vs Census - Data: 48 national surveys between1982 and 2015, including WVS, Gallup, ISDPR, KGSS, ABS, GAP(N = 55,784)

Some Observations Large variations in survey estimates, even in the same year or in the same source Particularly Buddhism Sample estimates not centered on the Census numbers According to the survey estimates (with uncertainty), Steady growth of Protestant (Stagnant in recent years?) Post-2010 decline of Buddhist Post-2010 increase of no religion (at the expense of Buddhist?) No clear trend for Catholic

What Is Driving These Changes? Age, Period, Cohort

% Buddhists in KLIPS W1, W12, W17 Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

% Protestant in KLIPS W1, W12, W17 Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

% Catholic in KLIPS W1, W12, W17 Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

% No Religion in KLIPS W1, W12, W17 Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study (1998 – 2015)

Some Observations Declining Buddhist: Cohort & Period effects Stable Protestant (might even be growing slightly): Age or life-course effects among older cohorts Uncertainty in how Catholic is doing: depending on life- course effects among younger cohorts Rise of None: Cohort & Period effects

How Stable Is Religious Identity in Korea?

(In)stability of Religious Identification Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study Based on all panel respondents who completed Waves 12 to 17 (N = 9,696) “Always” = Identify with the religion in all six waves “At least once” = Identify with the religion at least in one wave

Religious Identification: Latent Class Analysis Data: Korean Labor & Income Panel Study Based on all panel respondents who completed Waves 12 to 17 (N = 9,696) Latent class analysis with four classes

Some Observations High level of uncertainty, especially among Buddhists About a half of Cluster 1 & 2 swing back and forth between Buddhism & No religion Protestant identity most stable; Catholic identity (surprisingly) unstable

Discussion Declining Buddhism (age/period, cohort); stabilizing Protestantism; Catholicism probably in decline (mainly cohort effect but uncertain future) High level of within-cohort change over life course Age and/or Period effects Weak/fluid religious identity (Buddhist & Catholic) Probably contributing to the high variance among surveys and to the census vs. survey discrepancy

Discussion The Census numbers may not be the “true” parameters for surveys Beyond the “what is your religion” question Taking demography seriously: rapid demographic changes in the past decades.