Real clothes for Norway’s Emperor Paris, carbon budgets & 2°C mitigation twitter: @KevinClimate web: www.cemus.uu.se Foto: Tina Rohdin Kevin Anderson Isak Stoddard Jesse Schrage Zennström Professor in Climate Change Leadership Deputy Director CEMUS & CSD CCL Coordinator CEMUS & CSD

From Paris to Norway & Bergen via carbon budgets Our Paris commitments Importance of carbon budgets Translating 1.5 & 2°C into Global carbon budgets Estimating Norway’s fair carbon budgets … and what of Oslo’s proposals?

The Paris Agreement established our commitments

Paris – an important diplomatic triumph … hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C …to undertake rapid reductions in accordance with best science …on the basis of equity,

Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports) The mitigation message has changed little in twenty seven years Annual emissions now ~60% higher than in 1990 Even in Norway, CO2 emissions have risen by ~25% since 1990

Backdrop to Paris (& latest IPCC reports) in terms of temperature rise (e.g. 2°C) A focus on 2030, 2050, etc. has no scientific basis It is carbon budgets that matter

Thinking of this graphically…

Carbon dioxide emissions

It’s not what happens at some date in the future that matters Carbon dioxide emissions

but the carbon budget i.e. the area under the curve (e.g. for 2°C) Carbon dioxide emissions The Carbon Budget .

If we delay stringent mitigation today We emit additional CO2 A A Carbon dioxide emissions

A Carbon dioxide emissions B

A B Carbon dioxide emissions Anderson & Bows, 2011, Beyond dangerous climate change: emission scenarios for a new world, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 20-4 … 66% chance of avoiding 2°C B

Quantifying the Paris 2°C challenge

Before Paris … 4°C to 6°C 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

… national pledges add up to... With Paris … national pledges add up to... 3°C to 4°C 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

3°C to 4°C And to stay “well below 2°C” - the carbon budget remaining from 2017 is: - approx. 800 billion tonnes CO2 (i.e. 800GtCO2) 3°C to 4°C 2017 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

2017 ~Zero CO2 by ~2050 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

But Paris also has an important EQUITY dimension - wealthy nations need to transition to zero-CO2 ahead of poorer nations 2017 ~Zero CO2 by ~2050 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

So how is Oslo addressing this challenge?

So what are Norway's commitments under the Paris Agreement?

Sequential logic … Norway has committed to make its fair contribution to reduce its emissions in line with staying “well below 2°C” and “pursuing … 1.5°C” The IPCC provide a range of carbon budgets for these temperatures We derive very ambitious mitigation pathways for poorer (non-OECD) nations Estimate the non-OECD carbon budget & subtract from the global budget This gives an OECD carbon budget (i.e. from 2018 onwards) Divide the OECD budget fairly to give a Norway & Oslo carbon budget

Very challenging mitigation for poorer nations

Apportioning global budgets to Norway (NB. provisional) NB: even v. ambitious mitigation by non-OECD exceeds 1.5°C budgets Apportion remaining 2°C budget to Norway: Gives ~280 to 320MtCO2 from 2018 c.f. 2016 - Norway 44MtCO2 (territorial) - i.e. 6 to 7yrs! approx. 50MtCO2 with aviation & shipping

Headline mitigation message for Norway (NB. provisional) Assuming: 1) Norway is to meet it’s Paris commitment 2) & its policies are to have a scientific foundation … then, mitigate at >13% p.a. starting now ~75% reduction in CO2 by 2025 approaching full decarbonisation of energy by 2035

So how do Oslo’s commitments stack up?

Initial headline comment on Oslo’s commitments Deserve congratulations if they deliver as promised Broadly inline with Paris 2°C mitigation rates Probably the only geographical area to do this But …

Initial headline comment on Oslo’s commitents Equates to ~ 1.5 tCO2/person Norway mean/person is ~ 8.5 tCO2 i.e. over 80% of Oslo citizens’ CO2 is excluded from mitigation

So, if the Emperor is to have real clothes… Oslo to develop 2°C mitigation programme for all sectors Norway to match Oslo’s courageous ambition – now! … and that’s just the start

Norway – a Parisian bellwether Norway has a small highly educated population … with world-beating renewable energy potential … is one of the wealthiest nations in the world And with an oft-deserved ‘ethical’ reputation … but does all this mask a morally suspect legacy?

Norway – a Parisian bellwether 1987 Norway leads with the Bruntland report 1990 IPCC’s first report 1990 Norway establishes its Sovereign ‘wealth’ fund

Norway – a Parisian bellwether In 2017 SWF is worth around 8 trillion NOK i.e. 2 million NOK for every adult in Norway 2005 1998-2012 2013 2014 50% chance 2°C, ~70% fossil fuels in the ground “likely” chance 2°C, near 80%+ Paris 1.5°C over 90% 2017 Statoil keen to begin Arctic drilling (Lofoten & Barent Sea) … or as the FT called it “Oil and the battle for Norway’s soul”

Norway’s future – Bruntland or Statoil? Rapid phase out of Norway’s hydrocarbon assets Moratorium on airport expansion Use the Oslo plan as a catalyst for national decarbonisation Return the SWF to those who have, are & will be paying for it i.e. reparation for poorer, climate vulnerable, communities “… meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs."

and a message of hope to finish … “at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Robert Unger

Tack för att ni lyssnade twitter: @KevinClimate web: www.cemus.uu.se Foto: Tina Rohdin Kevin Anderson Isak Stoddard Jesse Schrage Zennström Professor in Climate Change Leadership Deputy Director CEMUS & CSD CCL Coordinator CEMUS & CSD