NSF-ARCSS Committee Meeting NSF-ARCSS Freshwater Integration study (FWI) Review of Status and Progress Charles Vörösmarty NSF-ARCSS Committee Meeting Washington, DC 2-4 May 2007 Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Convened by the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office

Goals Arctic-CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH Freshwater Initiative (FWI) Are Fundamentally Synthetic Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying? • Quantify Stocks and Fluxes • Document Changes to the Arctic Hydrologic Cycle Q2: If So, Why? • Understand the Source of the Change: Attribution Q3: What Are the Implications • Develop Predictive Simulations of Feedbacks to the Earth and Human Systems Arctic-CHAMP= Community-wide Hydrologic Analysis and Monitoring Program ASOF = Int’l Arctic-Sub-Arctic Ocean Flux study

BROAD PORTFOLIO OF PROJECTS -CHAMP/ASOF/SEARCH- Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007 Majority of the 22-funded FWI Projects active -- Near completion of 5th year of effort for the original 18 projects and 4th year for 4 additional projects FWI continues to generate tangible products (some high profile), “brand-name”

FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2007 >100 peer-reviewed publications giving attribution to support from ARCSS and FWI >100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums, including the ACIA, ARCSS Synthesis Retreats, AGU Fall and Spring Meetings/Union Session, EGU, ASLO, & many others More than 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students Outreach efforts include an AGU Press Conference, interviews on CNN, involvement in a multimedia documentary effort by NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., and feature interviews on NPR’s ‘All Things Considered’, to name a few examples

The Arctic Freshwater Budget Example of FWI Synthesis: Budgeteers Group The Arctic Freshwater Budget • Well-circumscribed topic and end-point • Provides a critical system-wide view • Entrained many perspectives/FWI contributors • Provides critical raw material upon which to proceed further Serreze et al., 2006, JGR-Oceans

CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTION Working Group Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems White et al. JGR, Biogeosciences (submitted) Francis et al., (in prep.) Document basic character of 

“Strands” of evidence for an Intensified Water Cycle ET-Eastern US Forests Growing Season Soil Moisture “Strands” of evidence for an Intensified Water Cycle CM per /DECADE +0.3 +0.1 +1.0 Amazon +3.1 +0.9 Huntington et al. 2003, Ag.For.Met v. 117 +0.8 Costa & Foley 1999, JGR v. 104 +2.5 New et al. 2000, J. Climate v. 13 Surface VP trend, 1975-95 Folland et al., IPCC/TAR Rosenlof, 2003, Science 302:1691-2. Stratospheric water

Coherent Tracking of Fresh Water What does “intensification” look like? 2nd derivative of  CCSM3 Modeled Eurasian River trend over 20th century = 6.7e-3 Sv/century (2.11 km3/yr) Results in 7% increase in Eurasian river flow over the century Agrees well with observed trends discussed by Peterson et al. (2002) (12%, 2.05 km3/yr) Data Gap Model Forecasts to 2100 Coherent Tracking of Fresh Water Holland et al., 2006

Anticipated FWI Sunset Products & Activities: 2007+ Many forthcoming individual project articles JGR-Biogeosciences Special Issue (24 submitted) AGU-Eos FWI summary Support water-oriented session at Arctic Forum • Arctic-CHAMP Capstone Synthesis WS (2008) (int’l as an IPY-affiliated meeting) Planning for IPY and beyond (HYCOS, HYDRA, ICARP II) Last All-Hands, Bodega Bay CA (cast as workshop on key findings) Perhaps another capstone…..