Populist attitudes and left- and right-wing voting Populist attitudes and left- and right-wing voting. First results from the German 2017 federal election Sigrid Roßteutscher & Lars C. Stövsand Goethe-University Frankfurt/Main International Workshop on Populism and Political Behaviour Università die Siena November 13/14th, 2017

Content: On Populism? Preliminary results: Online-Tracking (10 days pre-election) Role of the Media? Very preliminary results: pre-election cross-section (8 weeks pre- election Tentative conclusions

On populism: Germany: New See Kriesi „WE“ Anti-Establishment Germany: New

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Operationalization: Anger Merkel If you think about Angela Merkel or about what she has done, how angry/fourious are you? (Wenn Sie an Angela Merkel denken oder das, was sie getan hat, wie wütend sind Sie dann?) 1 „not at all angry, 7 „very angry“ 2. Difference who governs Some people say, that it makes a big difference who governs in Berlin. Others say, it does not make a difference. What do you think? (Einige Leute meinen, dass es einen großen Unterschied macht, wer in Berlin an der Regierung ist. Andere meinen, dass es keinen Unterschied macht. Wie ist das bei Ihnen? Difference between parties And how is that in the present political discussion, how big are the differences between the parties? (Und wie ist das in der aktuellen politischen Diskussion, wie groß sind da die Unterschiede zwischen den Parteien?) 2 and 3: 1 „no difference at all“, 5 „very big difference Want Only Votes Parties are only interested in the vote, they do not care about the opinions of the voters. („Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.) 1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Operationalization: All standardized:0 to 1. Populism-scale 0- 4 CDU/ CSU SPD Liberal Green Left AfD Non-Voter Anger Merkel 1,8 11,0 5,6 4,3 17,2 60,2 25,8 No diff. governm. 19,6 25,5 21,0 12,1 28,5 37,0 44,8 No diff. parties 17,5 30,9 23,2 21,2 31,6 38,0 33,3 Only want votes 32,8 44,4 35,3 40,7 52,5 76,4 86,4 Populism index 4,2 14,4 6,7 24,5 57,3 50,0 Note: Percentage with extreme values, highest and second highest. Populism: Higher than 2.5 on a scale from 0-4.

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Logitistic Regression Results: CDU/ CSU SPD Liberal Green Left AfD Non- Voter Anger Merkel .02*** 1.67 .53 .34* 3.90** 47.24*** 1.10 No diff. governm. 1.06 1.65 .63 .77 1.29 .92 1.88 No diff. parties .59 1.84 1.26 .74 1.09 2.11 .69 Only want votes .52 .44* .82 1.17 1.31 10.34*** 17.08* Left-Right-Scale 1.67*** .76*** 1.28*** .66*** .42*** 1.64*** 1.25 Male .59** 1.27 1.35 1.48 .97 High Education .64* .67* 1.20 1.63* 1.19 .44 Age .99 1.02** 1.00 .96* East .50* .57 2.49** 2.05* Pseudo R2 24,2 8,1 5,0 13,0 31,3 42,8 Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Logitistic Regression Results – Populism Index: CDU/ CSU SPD Liberal Green Left AfD Non-Voter Populism index .30*** 1.25 .74* .69* 1.72** 5.78*** 2.02* Left-Right-Scale 1.52*** .77*** 1.27*** .66*** .42*** 1.68*** Male .55** 1.29 1.34 .67 1.53 .98 1.13 High Education .79 .69 1.66* 1.14 1.01 .44 Age .99 1.02** 1.00 .97 East .89 .52* .96 .57 2.48*** 2.40** .51 Pseudo R2 17,3 7,1 4,7 12,5 30,5 34,9 10,5 Note: Reported are Odds Ratios, N=820

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Visualization – Anger Merkel CDU/CSU

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Left party Right party

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Visualization – Populism scale CDU/CSU

2. Preliminary Results: Online-Tracking Left party Right party

3. Role of the Media –Sources of Populism Left-Right-Scale .01 Male .11*** High Education -.21*** Age .00 East .05 Most important source of political information1: Newspaper -.10 Radio -.04 Internet .24*** Personal talk .08 Other source .61*** Index media consumption frequency2 -.00 Index media consumption diversity3 -.06** Single Media Sources4: Public TV news (“Tagesschau”) -.14* Private TV news (“RTL”) .28*** Private TV news (“SAT 1”) .15+ Twitter -.22+ N 885 Adj. R2 12,0 Note: 1Most important source: omitted: TV; 2 Intensity of media consumption; 3 range of different types of media consumed; 4 only significant effects out of 22 possible media sources

4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Operationalization: Populisms-Items (CSES) A. What they call compromise in politics, is in reality only a betrayal of principles. (Was in der Politik Kompromiss genannt wird, ist in Wirklichkeit nur ein Verrat von Prinzipien.) B. The people and not the politicians should make the most important decisions. (Das Volk, und nicht die Politiker, sollte die wichtigsten politischen Entscheidungen treffen.) C. The members of the German parliament must obey the will of the people. (Die Abgeordneten des Deutschen Bundestags müssen dem Willen des Volkes Folge leisten.) D. The political differences between elites and the people are bigger than within the people. (Die politischen Unterschiede zwischen Eliten und dem Volk sind größer als die Unterschiede innerhalb des Volkes). E. A citizen would represent my interests better than a professional politician. (Ein Bürger würde besser meine Interessen vertreten als ein Berufspolitiker) F. Politicians talk too much and do too little. (Die Politiker reden zu viel und machen zu wenig.) 2. Want Only Votes Parties are only interested in the vote, they do not care about the opinions of the voters (Die Parteien wollen nur die Stimmen der Wähler, ihre Ansichten interessieren sie nicht.) Media The German media discusses important themes one-sidedly/biased. (In Deutschland werden wichtige politische Themen in den Medien einseitig diskutiert.) 1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree

4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Operationalization: 4. Euroscepticism A. Germany should support EU member states with large economic and financial problems. (Deutschland sollte EU-Mitgliedsstaaten, die starke wirtschaftliche und finanzielle Schwierigkeiten haben, finanziell unterstützen.) B. European integration should be pushed further. (Die europäische Einigung sollte weiter vorangetrieben werden.) 1 fully disagree, 5 fullly agree (re-coded)

4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Populism and Euroscepticism in the German electorate (in percent) Fully agree Rather /fully N Compromise is betrayal 12,0 32,5 2037 The people should decide 17,0 36,6 2149 MPs must obey the people 39,9 72,9 2133 Diff. elites and people bigger 26,5 61,2 1927 A citizen represents better 10,3 26,9 2088 Politicians talk too much 34,0 64,3 2154 Only want votes 16,5 41,5 Media is biased 24,7 51,9 2084 gt 2,5 gt 3 Populism index (0-4) 36,0 16,1 1752 Fully disagree EU: financial solidarity 11,5 27,6 2145 EU: more integration 5,3 13,4 2125

4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Populism and Euroscepticism: German parties (mean values) CDU/ CSU SPD Liberal Green Left AfD Non-Voter Compromise is betrayal 2.8 3.0 2.7 3.3 3.7 The people should decide 2.9 3.8 MPs must obey the people 3.9 4.1 4.3 Diff. elites and people 3.6 3.5 4.0 4.2 A citizen represents better 2.6 3.4 Politicians talk too much 4.5 4.4 Only want votes 3.1 Media is biased 3.2 Populism index (0-4) 2.2 2.4 2.3 EU: financial solidarity 2.5 EU: more integration 1.9 2.0 1.7

4. Very Preliminary Results: Cross-section pre-election Logistic Regression results (Odds Ratios): CDU/ CSU SPD Liberal Green Left AfD Non-Voter Populism .56*** 1.01 .77* .71* 1.95*** 3.49*** 2.79*** EU: financial solidarity 1.09 .91 1.29** .69*** .78** 1.17 1.39** EU: more integration .92 .86* .86 .84 1.06 1.69*** Pseudo R2 3,0 0,8 1,2 4,8 3,1 19,5 11,4 Pseudo R2 with single items 3,9 1,5 2,0 6,7 3,8 21,8 13,8

5. Tentative conclusions There is left- AND right-wing populism in present-day Germany No impact of political ideology on populist attitudes But: - far more consequential on the right - right: populism & euroscepticism, left: only populism - non-voters: potential reservoir for (right-wing) populist parties Single strongest effect: hatred/fury /anger with Chancellor Merkel If no: Vote for Christian Democrats and other „established“ parties (in particular, Liberals and Greens) If yes: vote for populist parties, in particular right-wing Open question is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestation for all „ills“ of the „system“ (establishment, migration policy etc.) how much would populism explain after controlling for anti-immigrant sentments? in a post-Merkel world?

5. Tentative conclusions There is left- AND right-wing populism in present-day Germany No impact of political ideology on populist attitudes But: - far more consequential on the right - right: populism & euroscepticism, left: only populism - non-voters: potential reservoir for (right-wing) populist parties Single strongest effect: hatred/fury /anger with Chancellor Merkel If no: Vote for Christian Democrats and other „established“ parties (in particular, Liberals and Greens) If yes: vote for populist parties, in particular right-wing Open question is Merkel a symbol/ a personal manifestation for all „ills“ of the „system“ (establishment, migration policy etc.) how much would populism explain after controlling for anti-immigrant sentments? in a post-Merkel world? THANK YOU !

Populism - SPD

Populism – Liberals and Green

Merkel Anger - SPD

Merkel Anger – Liberals and Green