Understanding Teacher Shortages

What Do We Know…? Research So what do we know?

The Perfect Storm Is Your District Ready?

Increasing Demand for Teachers Increasing attrition + growing student enrollment + lower pupil- teacher ratios require even more teachers We need more teachers due to increased attrition, growing student enrollment, and lowering class-size ratios to pre-recession levels. Source: Sutcher, L., Darling-Hammond, L., and Carver-Thomas, D. (2016). p. 3

Mismatch between Supply & Demand… Enough teachers overall but not in subjects & locales needed In general, pipelines and pathways produce twice as many elementary teachers as we hire every year, yet we have local and national shortages in many other areas. Compounding the problem… Schools of education are producing far too many elementary teachers – at least twice as many as needed or more. While there are enough teachers OVERALL to meet demand, they are not in the subject areas of locations where we need teachers. So while we often speak of shortages generally, shortages are actually very specific to geographies primarily based on the needs of students, how many teachers are prepared annually in a particular subject, and local retention rates of non-retirement age teachers. This graphic shows that special ed, math, and science are persistent shortages in most states but foreign language and ELL shortages are much more localized. Source: Degree Tree and Sawchuck, 2013. Education Week

Teacher Diversity Continues to Lag National Data Show Gaps between Teacher and Student Demographics Teachers of color have not kept pace with increasing enrollment of students of color. And just as a reminder… we need to be thinking about diversity since NCES data show that the percentage of teachers of color nationally has not kept pace with increasing enrollment of students of color Source: National Center for Education Statistics (2013) 2011-2012 schools and staffing survey.

Fewer HS Students Interested in Teaching Between 2010 and 2015, the percentage of all ACT-tested HS graduates expressing an interest in education majors fell by 2%, or 18,825 fewer potential teachers. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Nation Percent 7% 6% 5% N Count 106,478 103,932 94,458 91,186 89,192 87,653 While a 2% decrease in HS students expressing an interest in education seems small, that’s 18,825 fewer potential teachers Source: http://www.act.org/content/dam/act/unsecured/documents/Future-Educators-2015.pdf

Declines in Teacher Prep Programs Between SY 2009 and 2014, enrollments in TPP programs fell by 35% and completers fell by 22%. Newly released data show that the numbers both of enrollments in - and completers of - teacher prep programs continued to decline through 2014 , but not as sharply as years before. And we know from additional research, that even of completers, ¼ - ½ don’t teach the year after graduating (DeMonte, 2016). Source: Sawchuck, 2016. Education Week

Declines in TFA Applicants Similarly, applications to TFA have fallen 35% since 2013. TFA and other alternative pathway programs are experiencing similar declines. Source: Sawchuck, 2016. Education Week

Recap: The Perfect Storm Multiple reasons to examine your district’s shortage challenges Increasing Demand Increase in attrition of veteran teachers Increasing student enrollments and diversity & policies to reduce class size Potential increased competition for teachers – school choice policies Decreasing Supply Fewer HS students interested in teaching Declining enrollment in all prep pathways Declining program completers Mismatch: Supply Demand in Hard-to-Staff Subjects & Schools Source: Barth, P., Dillon, N., Hull, J., Holland Higgins, B. (2016).

Your Role as District HR Leaders Growing the pipeline Partner and build multiple pipelines Increase alternative certification pathways Consider cost, culture, capacity, time to yield, etc. Gather feedback from principals on which pipelines best meet their needs Collect and share data with every local pathway provider to press for needed changes Use supply and demand + effectiveness data Commit to filling every vacancy Use research to guide your efforts

Research… and Its Implications Things to remember when creating pipeline strategies Research Practical Implications Certification pathway – traditional or alternative – is not a predictor of teacher effectiveness Boyd, et al., 2006 Individual programs show meaningful differences Goldhaber and Liddle, 2011 So… Look less at the pathway and more at the individual program; Recruit from multiple sources Diversity matters when building a pipeline Egalite, Kisida, Winters, 2015 Focus on building diversity beyond traditional pipelines More than 60% of teachers teach within 20 miles of where they went to HS Reininger, 2012 Consider how to tap into your local talent first Teaching experience is the only single characteristic consistently found to be related to teacher effectiveness Rockoff, et al., 2008 Don’t limit potential pipeline options based on arbitrary criteria

Best Practice Strategies Some ideas… Prepare pipeline & pathways analysis reports to share with stakeholders Example: NYC TPP Reports Grow your own teachers Alternative certification programs Para to teacher models Ask high-performing employees for referrals Tap into State partnerships Project Pipeline Repair Focus on retention too

Summary Considerations Growing Your Pipelines to Address Shortages Context – How do the conditions impact the strategies you select for growing your pipeline? Culture – How does a particular strategy fit into your existing organizational culture? Capacity – How does your HR team’s capacity impact the strategy you select? Cost – What are the budget implications of a strategy? Timeframe – When will candidates be available with a particular strategy? Context – Budget; State regs; Do you already have great pipelines? Rural v. Urban; Turnover; New Programs?

Appendix Information

Tools for Extending the Learning Additional Resources – HRinEd.org Getting the “Best Fit” Teacher Activity Analyzing Your Current Pipelines & Pathways Considerations for Growing Your Teacher Pipelines Teacher Referral Campaign Tips & Ideas Developing Meaningful Partnerships Analyzing Your Recruitment & Selection Processes for Missed Opportunities Research & Resources on Teacher Pipelines & Pathways

Defining Pipelines & Pathways Pathways: How you were prepared to teach High School Programs Traditional Pathways College/ University Programs Career Changers & Community Members Key Points in defining pipelines and pathways – A pipeline is how potential future teachers come to teaching, their channels or sources, if you will – while their pathway is the preparation route those in the pipeline take to get certified. Some pipelines provide a pathway to certification (TFA, Universities, Teaching Fellows), but not all pipelines are pathways.  Some pipelines and pathways take longer than others to yield applicants – so you need to take that into account when planning. 80% of teachers still follow a more traditional pathway. Finally, it bears mentioning – highlighted by the leaky drops on this diagram – that not all of the individuals in your pipelines and pathway programs will end up making it to teaching. The activities you use to help recruit the remaining teachers into your applicant pool and then select the best among them – like hiring early, making your district the employer of choice, etc. - remain incredibly important, even if they are not the main focus today. Examples of Pipeline Programs: High School Programs – Educators Rising College/ Universities – Schools of Education with Student Teachers, TFA Career Changers & Community Members – Grow Your Own: Teaching Fellows, NYC Teaching Academies Existing Employees – Grow Your Own: Paras to Teachers, Current teachers getting a new certification Alternative Pathways Existing Employees Pipelines: Sources of future talent