Influence of 2000-2050 climate change on U. S Influence of 2000-2050 climate change on U.S. particulate matter: Results from statistical models vs. chemistry-climate models Lu Shen, Loretta Mickley and Lee Murray IGC8, May 3, 2017 Acknowledgements: Hongyu Liu and Jacob group.

Chemistry models may have difficulties in simulating the sensitivity of PM2.5 to temperature variability in the United States.

Projections of future PM2 Projections of future PM2.5 under a warmer climate using GCM-CTMs are inconsistent. Multi-model studies suggest that PM2.5 change due to 2050s climate change will be small, just ±0.1-1.0 μg m-3 [Jacob and Winner, 2009; Fiore et al., 2015]. ΔPM2.5 by 2050s (July, PCM-CMAQ) ΔPM2.5 by 2050s (July, GRE-CAPs ) Day et al. [2015] Avise et al. [2009] But previous studies have never evaluated the long-term ( ~10 years) sensitivity of PM2.5 to the major meteorological variables in the CTMs.

PM2.5 is sensitive to local temperature, but chemistry models do not capture this sensitivity. Method: Calculate the JJA seasonal PM2.5-temperature slopes for at least 9 years in observations and in model output. (a) EPA-AQS obs, (b-e) ACCMIP models, (f) GEOS-Chem (v9-02)

In GEOS-Chem, the underestimate in PM2 In GEOS-Chem, the underestimate in PM2.5-T slopes in JJA is caused by the underestimate in sulfate-T slopes Obs GEOS-Chem μg m-3 K-1 GEOS-Chem (v9-02) SOA simulations for 2004-2012. dPM2.5/dT dSulfate/dT 1. The spatial pattern of dNH4/dT may be related to dSO4/dT. 2. GEOS-Chem doesn’t account for increasing agricultural NOx and NH3 emissions at higher temperatures. dOA/dT dNH4/dT dNO3/dT OA=POA+SOA

The daytime cloud fraction in the lower troposphere in GEOS-5 is too sensitive to temperature variability. Important pathways for sulfate oxidation chemistry (Jacob 1999): Gas phase oxidation by OH Aqueous phase oxidation by either H2O2 or O3 Using GEOS-Chem, we find that ~80% sulfate oxidation in the eastern US occurs in clouds. 2004-2012

We use statistical models to estimate the influence of 2000-2050 climate change on PM2.5 concentrations in the United States.

Why is synoptic circulation important for air quality variability? Correlations of May-June-July PM2.5 in one grid box with surrounding meteorology PM2.5 in this grid box May-June-July (1999-2013) anticyclone

Stack the spatial correlation matrices together (A:13×9×5) We developed a new statistical method to characterize synoptic patterns related to air quality. Identifying the dominating synoptic patterns for each region and each month can be time-consuming. We need a more general method. Stack the spatial correlation matrices together (A:13×9×5) Corr RH vs. PM Corr precip vs. PM Corr uwind vs. PM Corr vwind vs. PM spatial weight variable weight Resize A to F F=ULVT A:13×9×5 F: 117×5 U:117x5 L:5x5 V: 5x5 9 Corr T vs. PM 13 Each element on the diagonal of L represents the magnitude of corresponding synoptic patterns. We will use this method in Part 2.

Including synoptic circulation factors into the regression model increases the R2 between observed and predicted PM2.5 Cross-validated coefficients of determination (R2) between observed and predicted 1999-2013 monthly PM2.5 in US

Shen, L., Mickley, L. J., and Murray, L. T. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2017. Mean 2000-2050 changes in PM2.5 concentrations under climate change (RCP4.5). Method: Build a multivariate regression model using local meteorology and synoptic patterns, and apply this model to the meteorology from 19 IPCC models. Oxidation biogenic emission  Ammonium nitrate In the eastern US, annual mean PM2.5 will increase as much as 1 μg m-3 and JJA PM2.5 increases by ~2-3 μg m-3. Shen, L., Mickley, L. J., and Murray, L. T. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2017.

Thank you!

Mean 2000-2050 changes in PM2.5 concentrations under climate change (RCP4.5). Method: Build a multivariate regression model using local meteorology and synoptic patterns, and apply this model to the meteorology from 19 IPCC models. Oxidation biogenic emission  Ammonium nitrate ΔPM2.5 In the eastern US, annual mean PM2.5 will increase as much as 1 μg m-3 and JJA PM2.5 increases by ~2-3 μg m-3.

Slope of cloud fraction with temperature in the lower troposphere (below 680 hPa) in JJA for 2004-2012. Important pathways for sulfate oxidation chemistry (Jacob 1999): Gas phase oxidation by OH Aqueous phase oxidation by either H2O2 or O3 Using GEOS-Chem, we find that ~80% sulfate oxidation in the eastern US occurs in clouds. GEOS-Chem, JJA, 2004-2012. Negative dSO4/dT in Southeast is mainly driven by negative slopes of dPSO4-H2O2/dT and dPSO4-O3/dT.