Session 4: Biofuels: How Feasible Are Large-Scale Goals for Biofuel Penetration in the US and Canada? Ken Andrasko, EPA Session Objectives: Gauge technical and economic potential for large-scale biofuels production and use in Canada and US, Implications for GHG mitigation portfolios, commodity crops, energy supply, and the environment. US biofuel initiatives include “25x’25” (25% renewable share of energy by 2025) and President’s “Biofuels Initiative” (making cellulosic ethanol cost competitive by 2012 and displacing 30% of U.S. gasoline with biofuels by 2030). Potential Canadian initiatives include provisional goal of all gasoline containing 5% biofuel by 2010.

What Are We Talking About?? Potential Bioenergy Integrated Production System: Air, Water, & Land Use Change Impacts Land use change Bioenergy Crop Inputs: Water, chemicals Siting & energy use of conversion plants Water Quality impacts

Bioenergy Raises Land Use & Allocation Issues Woody Crops at Higher Prices (e.g., $44/t biomass) Could Be Competitive in Most of U.S. East and MidWest Corn stover harvest

GHG mitigation from forestry & agriculture: over time, by activity

Session 4: Biofuels: How Feasible Are Large-Scale Goals for Biofuel Penetration in the US and Canada? Some Questions: What feedstocks and technologies are feasible for liquid transportation and electricity generation, for large-scale targets before and beyond 2030? How do biofuels compete with other GHG management options? Commodity supply and price, land, and environmental tradeoffs? How can we improve modeling of biofuels to support climate policy? How feasible are initiatives being discussed ??