A New Methodology to Predict the Axial ICME Magnetic Field at 1 AU

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Presentation transcript:

A New Methodology to Predict the Axial ICME Magnetic Field at 1 AU M. K. Georgoulis1 & S. Patsourakos2 1 RCAAM of the Academy of Athens 2 Physics Dept., University of Ioannina To appear as Near-Sun and 1 AU Magnetic Field of Coronal Mass Ejections: a Parametric Study, S. Patsourakos & M. K. Georgoulis, A&A, in press (arXiv 1609.00134)

Objective and Steps of the Study To best constrain the ICME axial magnetic field (B0) at 1 AU using solar observations and heliospheric propagation. ICME axis orientation not examined at this stage SOLAR Focus on CME source active regions and calculate their magnetic helicity Aim to identify eruption-related helicity changes (ideally) NEAR-SUN Follow the helicity conservation principle and attribute helicity changes to eruptions Forward-fit CME axis, orientation & radius INNER-HELIOSPHERIC Propagate B0 in inner heliosphere by using a power-law heliocentric fall-off function Constrain power-law index by demanding agreement at L1 Credit: Demoulin & Dasso (2009)

Monte-Carlo modeled Near-Sun CME B0 Lundquist flux rope Credit: Thernisien et al. (2009)

Extrapolated ICME B0 at 1 AU From an initial αB ∊ [-2.7, 1.0], an optimal agreement with observations is achieved for αB ≃ -1.6 Typical B0-values at 1 AU (L1) between in the range (10, 40) nT

Summary and limitations MAIN FINDINGS For the first time, diagnostics used from solar photosphere to L1 Ballpark agreement between measured/modeled axial fields of Mcs at L1 and findings hereby Inner heliospheric radial fall-off power-law index constrained at ~ -1.6 Typical ICME B0-values at (10, 40) nT LIMITATIONS At this stage, analysis is not automated ICME axis orientation not examined Further assumptions toward assigning helicity to near-Sun CMEs and forward-modeling parameters