Role of Agrometeorological Advisory Services in Managing Risk Under Changing Climate DR S. D. ATTRI India Meteorological Department Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi sd.attri@imd.gov.in; sdattri@gmail.com

FWCC 1979 (Scientific Knowledge) ‘Climate Variability and Change as an issue of concern worldwide ’ IPCC WCC-3 (31 Aug-4 Sept. 2009) Societal services ‘Climate prediction and information for decision-making GFCS Observation & Monitoring Climate Research & Modeling Climate Services & Information System Climate Services Application Programme SWCC 1990 Political Awareness ‘More momentum to address Climate Variability and Change’ GCOS UNFCCC Development policy

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RECENT CLIMATE CHANGE IPCC, 2013 Change in surface temperature over 1901–2012 as determined by linear trend. White areas indicate incomplete or missing data. Trends have been calculated only for those grid boxes with greater than 70% complete records and more than 20% data availability in the first and last 10% of the time period. Black plus signs (+) indicate grid boxes where trends are significant (i.e., a trend of zero lies outside the 90% confidence interval) IPCC, 2013

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WARMEST YEARS (1880–2016) Warmest year 2016: +0.83 degree C 15 out of 16 warmest years on record in the 21st century Each of the last three decades warmer than the previous one 2001-2010 as the warmest decade on record. 2011-2015: Warmest

Climatic Variability during Recent Past

OBSERVED TEMPERATURE TREND OVER INDIA (1901-2016) Winter: 0.72°C Pre-monsoon: 0.61°C Monsoon: 0.35°C Post Monsoon: 0.81°C Trend : 0.65°C /100 years

Spatial Variation of mean annual Temperature Changes in last century 1901-2009 1901-92 1901-1990 1901-2015

TREND OF RAINFALL DURING SW MONSOON AND ANNUAL (mm of rainfall in 100 years) 11

Trend in sub- divisional rainfall data (increase/ decrease in rainfall in mm) for different seasons (1901-2003).

Observation Network and Weather Forecast

Global Climate Observing System Core tasks: Defining and regular updating of climate requirements for global observing systems, and; Highlighting gaps in global observing systems for climate, and taking remedial action WMO GCOS Sectt Terrestrial Oceanic Panels Jointly with Global Terrestrial Observing System (GTOS) of FAO integrated system of in situ and satellite observations of the terrestrial-ecosystem Jointly with Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) of IOC. liaison and advocacy for the agreed observing plans Observations in the areas of meteorology and atmospheric chemistry UNEP UNESCO ICSU Atmospheric

CLIMATE CHAGE PROJECTION (IPCC 2013) 2046–2065 2081–2100 Global Mean Surface Temperature Change (°C) mean likely rangec mean likely range c RCP2.6 1.0 0.4 to 1.6 1.0 0.3 to 1.7 RCP4.5 1.4 0.9 to 2.0 1.8 1.1 to 2.6 RCP6.0 1.3 0.8 to 1.8 2.2 1.4 to 3.1 RCP8.5 2.0 1.4 to 2.6 3.7 2.6 to 4.8 Global Mean Sea Level Rise (m) RCP2.6 0.24 0.17 to 0.31 0.40 0.26 to 0.54 RCP4.5 0.26 0.19 to 0.33 0.47 0.32 to 0.62 RCP6.0 0.25 0.18 to 0.32 0.47 0.33 to 0.62 RCP8.5 0.29 0.22 to 0.37 0.62 0.45 to 0.81

Expected Future Change in Monsoon Rainfall and Annual Surface Temp for 2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s under A1B scenario in AR5 Rainfall Temp Krishna Kumar et al, 2009

Per Capita CO2 Emissions Sweden’s example shows that it can be done. They have a plan to lower emissions by another factor of two in the next few decades. Their per-capita GDP is higher than the U.S., and we can observe that wealth and services are more equitably distributed than in the U.S.

Weather Observation & Monitoring Network AWS ARG 550 1350 680 RAIN GAUAGE RS/RW NETWORK RADAR

Spatial and Temporal domains of Forecast Nowcast & very short range for next 3- 12 hours (Venue/ location specific) Short Range for next 72 hours (Location/District/ State/Met Sub-division) Medium Range for next 3-10days (City & District) Extended range for fortnight and month (Met Subdivision/State/ Homogeneous regions) Long range for season (Homogeneous regions/country) Early warning system on extreme events

Nowcast Medium range Forecast Thunderstorm Hailstorm Squall GFS-T1534 Spatial Res. 12.5 km Forecast for 10 days

Long Range Forecast April June July August Month of Forecast Issue All India All India June – September Rainfall April Update for All India June – September Rainfall June All India Monthly (July & August) Rainfall All India Second Half of Season August - September Rainfall July All India Monthly September Rainfall August Geographical Regions June – September Rainfall for Four Geographical Regions In addition, Forecast for Date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala in May 23

Agromet Advisory Services

An Overview of Operational Agromet Advisory Services Multichannel Dissemination of Agromet Advisories to the Farmers through SMS and IVR Agromet Field Units at ACZ level Regional and State Meteorological Centers of IMD Value Addition Farmer Awareness Programs Krishi Vigyan Kendras Taking Feedback from the Farmers IMD, NWP Section District and Block Level Forecast Farming Communities Giving Feedback to KVKs and Agromet Field Units

Network under Gramin Krishi Mausam Sewa DAMUs at KVK 23 AAS Units Of IMD 130 Agromet Field Unit at SAUs & ICAR Centres 35 AICRPAM centres under ICAR

Collaborating Agencies Ministry Of Earth Sciences India Meteorological Department National Centre For Medium Range Weather Forecasting Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology Indian Council For Agricultural Research State Agricultural Universities Department Of Agriculture ,Cooperation & FW State Departments Of Agriculture Ministry of Information Technology Ministry of Science & Technology Ministry of Information & Broadcasting (AIR & TV) Print Media Department of Space Min. of Rural Development MSSR Foundation & other NGOs & PP

Targeted Agromet Advisories to farmers In different stages of crops In Farm operations Tactical Decisions Seed Management, Irrigation, Fertilizer Application, Pesticide spraying, etc... Sowing Transplanting Vegetative Grain formation Harvesting, etc... 14,15 slides : Advisories for practical and strategic decisions Strategic Decision: Contingent Planning Medium duration crop Alternate crop Mixed crops etc...

National Level Bulletin State Level Bulletin District Level Bulletin for Chennai

Multichannel Dissemination Forecast from IMD, New Delhi State Met Centres Agromet Advisory Bulletin by AMFUs Personal Contact Radio News Papers Krishi Vigyan Kendra State Agril. Dept. Farmer Television SMS on mobile ~2 crore Website Mausam Khabar Kisan Samachar Farmers feedback Through mobile

One in nine family connected in the country. Salient Achievements To increase to 95.4 million 19.3 8.06 5.06 3.40 636 622 600 593 One in nine family connected in the country. Increase in dissemination of Agromet advisories for millions of farmer from 2012 to 2016 Increase in issue of District Level advisories from 2012 to 2015-16

Economic Impact Assessment by National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) 95% of the farmers (surveyed) have been experiencing an improved reliability of the service in 2015. The incremental profit due to Agromet Advisory Services is assessed to be 25% of their net income.  The Annual Economic Profit of 24% of the community, cultivating 4-principal crops (wheat, paddy, sugarcane and cotton), after using the Agromet Advisory Service in 2010, was assessed at Rs. 38,463 crs and this has raised to Rs. 42,000 crs in 2015. Gramin Krishi Mausam Seva has the potential of generating net economic benefit up to Rs. 3.3 lakh crores on the 22-principal crops alone when Agromet Advisory Service is fully utilized by 95.4 million agriculture-dependent households. 

AUTOMATION OF AGROMET ADVSIORY Use of Regionally Integrated Multi-Hazards Early Warning System under customization or other agencies. Distinction in the advisory for Irrigated and Rainfed agriculture is being customized. RIMES is already functional at Myanmar, Bangladesh, Srilanka.

Automation of Agromet Advisory System Overview Observed Rainfall and Temperature Data Agromet Decision Support system WRF Model Forecast 3 days lead time (3 x 3 km) Short SMS based on 5 days forecast information IITM- GFS Model Forecast 4-10 days lead time (12.5 x 12.5 km) 10 Day Agro-met bulletin Agriculture Information: Location, Major Crop and Cultivar Dynamic crop weather calendar Crop health and soil wetness Crowd sourcing through network

…thank you