IS THE FUTURE HYDROGEN A Discusion Paper Prepared by Lynn K. Mytelka UNU-MERIT

Hydrogen Fuel Cells Hydrogen Fuel Cells (HFCs) are part of a wave of new technologies that are knowledge based, research intensive and systems embedded. The latter (systems embebededness) contributes to the disruptive nature of this technology and thus to some of the difficulties that have been faced in moving HFCs to the market. This discussion paper deals mainly with the evolution of HFCs in the Transport Sector.

Many Factors Shape the Pace and Direction of Energy Transitions

Proton Exchange Membrain (PEM) Fuel Cells Use a fuel supply to combine hydrogen and oxygen in an electrochemical process that generates an electric current. The process involves an ion exchange polymer membrane as the electrolyte and electrodes of fine metal mesh on which a platinum catalyst is deposited. It converts H2 directly into electricity without combustion or moving parts. If hydrogen is used as the fuel, a fuel cell vehicle (HFCV) is virtually pollution free.

The role of Hybres Making Choices Under Uncertainty-Toyota Making Policy Decisions about Transport, Subsizsidizing limeted change in Energy and the Environment Dealing with Exclusion

1. Making Choices under Uncertainty Since the mid-1990s the emergence of a hydrogen economy & the speed of its arrival have been vigorously debated and time horizons pushed back. Cleaner traditional fuels are emphasized and alternatives such as biofuels are increasingly subject to criticism. the need to identify and critically analyze the factors that shape the direction of change, to contextualize choices and to conceptualize change processes in terms of a portfolio of options overtime.

Policies, Preferences and Competitive Practices TRIGGERS AND DRIVERS Policies, Preferences and Competitive Practices 1996 – 2000 Great Expectations: the Ballard Bus (1993),short time horizons for HFCs, emergence of hybrids 2001 – 2010 Questioning:pushing time horizons into the future, focus on alternative fuels & vehicles 2011 – until ? Debate:commercialisation to early adopters & niche markets , climate change, natural gas, electric vehicls, backlash against biofuels thought to supplant food crops, hydrogen?

THE DEBATE Some said say the bottlenecks are technological and that more basic research is still needed The US Department of Energy (Doe) appears to be making more rapid progress in achieving break- throughs than expected. Platinum loading in 2005, for example, was lower than the DOE’s 2010 target and there was a 20 fold improvement in the catalyst.

2015 1990 2000 Year 2005 1995 2010 30 200 3000 Cost in $/kW (50-kW system) Through 1990, PEMFC cost was dominated by platinum loading (~20g/kW) Today’s high volume estimate is $110/kW Standardized modular design Improved MEA fabrication Reduced catalyst loading Advanced membrane material Source: S.Chalk & J. Miller “The US Hydrogen Fuel Initiative” in L.Mytelka & G. Boyle (eds.) Making Choices about Hydrogen:Transport Issues for Developing Countries, United Nations University, 2008

Some say it is costs THE DEBATE The cheapest hydrogen fuel cell cars planed for the near future will likely cost as much as 35,000 USD (Daimler, Honda, Toyota) and many of these will be hybrids of various sorts (electric, natural gas).

Others see the problem as a lack of infrastructure THE DEBATE Others see the problem as a lack of infrastructure We have already moved beyond hydrogen refuelling test and demonstration projects. Today companies such as Shell, BP and Johnson Matthey are building infrastructure as needed. The pull of demand from cities like Amsterdam and those in the Scandinavian countries that are planning for fleets of hydrogen fuel cell buses by the year 2015, is stimulating the building of refuelling stations. So why is hydrogen once again being put on the back shelf?

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