Bab 4 : Peramalan Permintaan

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 Business and Economic Forecasting Mohammad Arief.

Advertisements

Operations Management Forecasting Chapter 4

Bina Nusantara Model Ramalan Peretemuan 13: Mata kuliah: K0194-Pemodelan Matematika Terapan Tahun: 2008.

Consequences of Business Fluctuations Chapter 14.

Ka-fu Wong © 2003 Chap Dr. Ka-fu Wong ECON1003 Analysis of Economic Data.

Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in.

Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in.

Forecasting 5 June Introduction What: Forecasting Techniques Where: Determine Trends Why: Make better decisions.

Forecasting Ross L. Fink.

Chapter 12 - Forecasting Forecasting is important in the business decision-making process in which a current choice or decision has future implications:

Chapter 5 Time Series Analysis

FORECASTING. FORECASTING TECHNIQUES l QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE l ECONOMETRIC OR REGRESSION ANALYSIS l SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION SETS l TIME SERIES ANALYSIS.

To accompany Quantitative Analysis for Management, 8e by Render/Stair/Hanna 5-1 © 2003 by Prentice Hall, Inc. Upper Saddle River, NJ PERTEMUAN 14.

Operations Management Forecasting Chapter 4

Forecasting Introduction Subjects of Forecasts

Department of Business Administration

MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS 12th Edition

Session 5: Demand forecasting

Slides 13b: Time-Series Models; Measuring Forecast Error

Demand Forecasting By Prof. Jharna Lulla.

Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D. Copyright ©2004 by South-Western, a division of Thomson Learning. All rights reserved.Slide 1 Managerial Economics.

Winter’s Exponential smoothing

LSS Black Belt Training Forecasting. Forecasting Models Forecasting Techniques Qualitative Models Delphi Method Jury of Executive Opinion Sales Force.

Time Series “The Art of Forecasting”. What Is Forecasting? Process of predicting a future event Underlying basis of all business decisions –Production.

Operations and Supply Chain Management

Business and Economic Forecasting Chapter 5

Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. Qualitative Forecasts Survey Techniques Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’

Chapter 2 – Business Forecasting Takesh Luckho. What is Business Forecasting?  Forecasting is about predicting the future as accurately as possible,

Managerial Economics Prof. M. El-Sakka CBA. Kuwait University Managerial Economics Prof. M. El-Sakka CBA. Kuwait University Managerial Economics in a Global.

Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting.

Slide 1 Business and Economic Forecasting Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting is a critical managerial activity which comes in two forms: lQuantitative Forecasting.

$100$200$100$300$100$200 $400 $200$200$400 $100$400$100$400 $500 $200$500 $300$500$300$300$500$300$400 $500.

Definition of Time Series: An ordered sequence of values of a variable at equally spaced time intervals. The variable shall be time dependent.

SESSION Last Update 18 th June 2011 Time Series Forecasting.

Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting 1. 1.Importance of Forecasting  Helps planning for long-term growth  Helps in gauging the economic activity (auto sales,

Managerial Economics Demand Estimation & Forecasting.

Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia.  Post Graduate Diploma in.

Time-Series Forecasting Overview Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing Seasonality.

Forecasting. 預測 (Forecasting) A Basis of Forecasting In business, forecasts are the basis for budgeting and planning for capacity, sales, production and.

10B11PD311 Economics. Process of predicting a future event on the basis of past as well as present knowledge and experience Underlying basis of all business.

PowerPoint Slides by Robert F. BrookerCopyright (c) 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. All rights reserved. Managerial Economics in a Global Economy Chapter 5 Demand.

C opyright  2007 by Oxford University Press, Inc. PowerPoint Slides Prepared by Robert F. Brooker, Ph.D.Slide 1.

1 Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting. 2 1.Importance of Forecasting  Helps planning for long-term growth  Helps in gauging the economic activity (auto sales,

Welcome to MM305 Unit 5 Seminar Prof Greg Forecasting.

UNIT - 3 DEMAND FORECASTING. MEANING Demand forecasting refers to an estimation of most likely future demand for a product under given conditions.

The Aim of Forecasting The aim of forecasting is to reduce the risk or uncertainty that the firm faces in its short-term operational decision making and.

FORECASTING Kusdhianto Setiawan Gadjah Mada University.

Demand Forecasting Prof. Ravikesh Srivastava Lecture-11.

Slide 1 © 2011 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or.

Forecasting Chapter 6 7E M ANAGERIAL E CONOMICS F U N D A M E N T A L S O F © 2003 South-Western/Thomson Learning M A R K H I R S C H E Y PowerPoint Presentation.

CHAPTER 12 FORECASTING. THE CONCEPTS A prediction of future events used for planning purpose Supply chain success, resources planning, scheduling, capacity.

Semester-2 Academic Year 2010/2011 Wednesday Room : 209 Major : Management Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics  PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept.

DEMAND FORECASTING & MARKET SEGMENTATION. Why demand forecasting?  Planning and scheduling production  Acquiring inputs  Making provision for finances.

Welcome to MM305 Unit 5 Seminar Forecasting. What is forecasting? An attempt to predict the future using data. Generally an 8-step process 1.Why are you.

Business Cycles and Unemployment

Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting

Operations Management Contemporary Concepts and Cases

Supply Chain Management for Non Supply Chain Management Professionals

Demand Estimation and Forecasting

Principles and Worldwide Applications, 7th Edition

Chapter 5 Demand Forecasting

Forecasting Chapter 11.

Department of Business Administration

Forecasting Elements of good forecast Accurate Timely Reliable

Forecasting is an Integral Part of Business Planning

Prepared by Lee Revere and John Large

Measuring and Forecasting Demand

Chapter 8 Supplement Forecasting.

BEC 30325: MANAGERIAL ECONOMICS

Presentation transcript:

Bab 4 : Peramalan Permintaan Managerial economics Bab 4 : Peramalan Permintaan PhD in Economics, 1998, Dept. of Economics, The University of Queensland, Australia. Post Graduate Diploma in Regional Dev.,1994, Dept. of Economics, The Univ. of Queensland, Australia. MS in Rural & Regional Development Planning, 1986, Graduate School, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor Lecturer : Muchdie, PhD in Economics

Pokok Bahasan Peramalan Kualitatif : Survei, Jajak Pendapat Peramalan Kuantitatif : Analisis Deret Waktu Teknik Penghalusan Metode Barometrik Model Ekonometrik Peramalan Input-Output Ringkasan, Pertanyaan Diskusi, Soal-Soal dan Alamat Situs Internet Studi Kasus Gabungan 2 : Mengestimasi dan Meramalkan Permintaan Listrik di Amerika Serikat

PERAMALAN KUAlITATIF Survey Techniques Opinion Polls Planned Plant and Equipment Spending Expected Sales and Inventory Changes Consumers’ Expenditure Plans Opinion Polls Business Executives Sales Force Consumer Intentions

AnalISIS DERET WAKTU Secular Trend Cyclical Fluctuations Long-Run Increase or Decrease in Data Cyclical Fluctuations Long-Run Cycles of Expansion and Contraction Seasonal Variation Regularly Occurring Fluctuations Irregular or Random Influences

Trend Projection Linear Trend: St = S0 + b t b = Growth per time period Constant Growth Rate St = S0 (1 + g)t g = Growth rate Estimation of Growth Rate lnSt = lnS0 + t ln(1 + g)

Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period VariaSI MUSIMAN Ratio to Trend Method Actual Trend Forecast Ratio = Seasonal Adjustment = Average of Ratios for Each Seasonal Period Adjusted Forecast Trend Forecast Seasonal Adjustment =

VariaSI MUSIMAN Ratio to Trend Method: Example Calculation for Quarter 1 Trend Forecast for 1996.1 = 11.90 + (0.394)(17) = 18.60 Seasonally Adjusted Forecast for 1996.1 = (18.60)(0.8869) = 16.50

Moving Average Forecasts RATA-RATA BERGERAK Forecast is the average of data from w periods prior to the forecast data point.

PEMULUSAN EXPONENSIAL Forecasts Forecast is the weighted average of of the forecast and the actual value from the prior period.

Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method Root Mean Square Error Measures the Accuracy of a Forecasting Method

Barometric Methods National Bureau of Economic Research Department of Commerce Leading Indicators Lagging Indicators Coincident Indicators Composite Index Diffusion Index

Econometric Models QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e Single Equation Model of the Demand For Cereal (Good X) QX = a0 + a1PX + a2Y + a3N + a4PS + a5PC + a6A + e QX = Quantity of X PX = Price of Good X Y = Consumer Income N = Size of Population PS = Price of Muffins PC = Price of Milk A = Advertising e = Random Error

Multiple Equation Model of GNP Econometric Models Multiple Equation Model of GNP Reduced Form Equation

Input-Output Forecasting Three-Sector Input-Output Flow Table

Input-Output Forecasting Direct Requirements Matrix Direct Requirements Input Requirements Column Total =

Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix

Input-Output Forecasting Total Requirements Matrix Final Demand Vector Total Demand Vector =

Input-Output Forecasting Revised Input-Output Flow Table