Transport Economics in Small (Island) States James Reeves MA BA Hons Senior Technical Director, Economics and Finance IMC Worldwide

Introduction Graduated with MA Transport Economics 1989 26 years in consultancy, 2 years in UK Local Authority Worked in 43 countries Roads, rail, aviation, ports and shipping, urban transport Economic appraisal, national transport planning, infrastructure financing

Worked in 43 countries

IMC Worldwide 120 staff Currently working in 25+ countries Can trace history back directly to 1968 Core is engineering, institutional strengthening, economics and finance Also environment, social studies, monitoring and evaluation, trade, urban development www.imcworldwide.com/jobs/

IMC Economics and Finance 8 people Current projects – Philippines, Egypt, Dominica, Serbia, Belarus, Caribbean Region, Swaziland, Kenya, Nepal PPP Transaction Advisory, Climate Change Adaptation, Public Investment Management, Road Sector Reform, National Development Planning, Programme Evaluation

Niue National Transport Strategy

Niue National Transport Strategy ToR Develop a new National Transport Strategy Develop a 3 year National Transport Sector Action Plan Identify opportunities for revenue generation Support applications to the Green Climate Fund for key Infrastructure Stakeholder consultation and presentations

Transport Strategy Objectives Effectiveness Efficiency Resilience ensuring that the transport system meets the needs of Niue and supports social and economic development programmes improving the way services are planned and delivered ensuring that revenue generated within the transport sector, stays within the transport sector making Niue’s transport infrastructure resilient to the impacts of climate change and disasters maximising reliability and minimising losses due to the transport system

Cyclone Heta, Niue, 2004

Aviation Airport recognised as critical asset Retaining ICAO license is crucial Maintenance issues paramount Need to improve passenger experience Try to attract more services from different places

Maritime Wharf recognised as Niue’s most critical asset Need to protect the wharf from climate change Wharf crucial for ship operations Major maintenance planned on sea walls Wharf needs to have more space and operate 24/7

Roads Roads provide the key linkages between villages Mix of coastal ring and cross island roads Some key links not sealed

Key Objectives Providing effective planning and implementation of maintenance programmes for key assets Ensuring effective budgeting for operational and maintenance activities Ensuring that the transport system supports the achievement of the NNSP Incorporating climate change adaptation and disaster risk mitigation into all plans Ensuring that transport infrastructure can meet the requirements of Niue’s international treaties and statutory obligations Minimising the carbon footprint of the transport system and wherever possible incorporating low carbon technologies.

Elements of the Strategy No sweeping changes to service delivery Continue to review the role of the private sector in delivery Adopt the user pays principle across the sector Recognise critical assets Ensure improved asset maintenance Build the human resource within the sector Responding to climate change is paramount Providing more resilience to climate change and disasters is the focus of all policy Transport strategy includes aviation, maritime, roads and major plant Legal, institutional and financial issues are considered

Niue National Transport Strategy Prioritisation Framework

Niue National Transport Strategy What happens next? Strategy and Action Plan have been approved by Parliament Funding for key schemes needs to be agreed Application to GCF for feasibility studies Purchase new equipment using the Niue Trust Fund Finalise agreements for NZ and China for key schemes

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica Terms of Reference Complete condition, hazard and risk assessments Identify interventions to increase resilience Complete economic appraisal of investment options Undertake stakeholder consultation Complete environmental and social safeguards studies

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica Why is this road important? It serves a population of over 5,000 It is the only link to major settlements along the south coast Around 3 km of the road is alongside the sea The road was badly damaged by tropical storm Erica in 2015 It serves the brewery!

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica Elements of the Project Repair the road surface Install river training works Replace inadequate bridges Stabilise landslide areas Install new coastal protection measures Improve road safety features Reinstate previous downside failures Install rock nets

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica Measurement of Economic Benefits Benefits of improved road surface (reduced roughness, shorter journey times) Reduced damage to infrastructure Reduced costs of dislocation Reduced likelihood of dislocation Likely reduced length of dislocation Reduces need for emergency response Reduced need for relocation of people

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica Costs of dislocation 8 hour closure Delays to trips 3 day closure Delays to trips, loss of income 10 day closure Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions 20 day closure Delays to trips, loss of income, costs of emergency provisions, costs of emergency transport and accommodation

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica

Loubiere – Bagatelle Road Climate Change, Dominica What Happens Next (What should have happened) Approval of recommended option (Q3 2017) Detailed design (Q4 2017 – Q2 2018) Construction (Q3 2018 – Q4 2019) After Hurricane Maria (What is now likely to happen) After cleanup and emergency works Revisit feasibility study Produce new/revised recommendations

Key Questions Can we make everything resilient, economically? How do we value the benefits of reducing the effects of climate change and disasters? Small (island) states face a common set of problems. What are the potential solutions, when you don’t have enough people, enough money, or enough resource?