Branching Simulations Tsvet Ross-Lazarov COMET Instructional Designer

Fire Weather Simulation Point your browsers to: https://www.meted.ucar.edu/training_module.php?id=1300#.WZxUgz6GPcs

Simulation Benefits enhance safety experiences not readily available in reality modify time frames make rare events more common control complexity

Creating a Simulation Learn and analyze the phenomena Create and refine the underlying model Make design decisions Transfer the model into software Develop the user interface Develop instructional supports

Create Underlying Model Effective learning simulations Rule of 3s 3 hours without shelter 3 days without water 3 weeks without food

Which elements make up the model in the fire simulation Which elements make up the model in the fire simulation? Select all that apply. Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms. State your confidence in the forecast. Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive. State the expected impacts. Describe the weather situation using appropriate science terms. 20% Response Counter

Design Decisions Sequence and type of actions How many choices What feedback to give Text, graphics, interface

What are the questions in the model? Select all that apply. What will the weather do today? Where should the firefighters work? When will the weather begin? Where will the storms be in relation to the fire? How confident are you in the forecast? What will be the main impacts? 17% Response Counter

Model Actions Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms. State your confidence in the forecast. State the expected impacts. Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive. What will the weather do today? When will the weather begin? Where will the storms be? How confident are you in the forecast? What will be the main impacts? Select option that indicates calm response

Design Decisions 3 questions with 3 choices each 27 possible paths Text and images quicker and cheaper

Feedback is Balancing Act Natural vs Artificial Feedback Natural Problem without solution Artificial Prevents errors

What type of feedback did we give in the fire weather simulation What type of feedback did we give in the fire weather simulation? Select the best answer. Natural Artificial Mixture 33% Response Counter

Feedback is Balancing Act Immediate vs Delayed Immediate Message about error Delayed Natural feedback

Did we use Delayed or Immediate feedback? Select the best answer. 50% Response Counter

Feedback is Balancing Act Learners like Immediate and Artificial feedback Delayed and Natural Produces lasting learning Mistakes and consequences Novice learners Immediate and Artificial feedback Experienced learners Delayed and Natural

Simulation Exercise Communicate probability and Impacts 60% chance of 300mm of rain = minor flooding 10% chance of 600mm of rain = catastrophic flooding Create a two question simulation with two options each. Communicate the probability of precipitation in a clear and concise way free of meteorological terms Communicate potential impacts from the precipitation based on the concerns of the emergency manager.

Create the Model Address partner's main concern in a simple language free of science terms. State your confidence in the forecast. State the expected impacts. Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive. Handout (5 min)

Possible Model Express the probabilities for the most likely and less likely scenarios Explain the impacts from the more likely scenario - minor flooding will result. Describe the potential for catastrophic flooding. Remain calm if the partner becomes angry with you. Don’t become defensive. Handout (5 min)

Create a Simulation Map Handout (5 min)

Possible Simulation Map

Questions, Options, Feedback What will the weather do today? When will the weather begin? Where will the storms be? How confident are you in the forecast? What will be the main impacts? Select option that indicates calm response Handout (5 min)

Possible Questions Scenario: You have received a call from Emergency Manager How much rain will fall over our town? In 6 out of 10 instances (60%) 300 mm; in 1 out of 10 instances (10%) 600 mm. There is a 10% chance of 600 mm from this storm but it could be less. What are the impacts? In the more likely scenario, minor flooding will result. But there is the potential for catastrophic flooding. There is potential for catastrophic flooding in the town.

References Brown, Peter C. (2014-04-14). Make It Stick. Harvard University Press. Kindle Edition. Alessi, S., & Trollip, S., (2001). Multimedia for Learning, Methods and Development. Needham Heights, MA: Allyn & Bacon.