Vulnerability assessment of ecosystem to climate change in Xuan Thuy national park Mai Phuong Thao, Nguyen Lan Huong Natural Resources Management Faculty, Vietnam National University of Forestry, Hanoi, Vietnam ABSTRACT 3. METHODS 4. RESULTS 4. RESULTS (cont.) Climate change has been taking place on a global scale, their expression is different between regions, but we can some general characteristics: increased in temperatures, excess rainfall in the rainy season, reduce precipitation in the dry season, increasing in the extreme phenomena (like droughts and floods) occur more often, the operation of the hurricanes are more complex, El Niño appeared more often with turbid fluctuations.. Vietnam is severely affected by climate change. Climate change influences on natural system, including human. And ecosystem is one of the most vulnerable element in this system, especially mangrove ecosystem. 4.2.. Sea level rise 4.1. Baseline and exposure 3.1. Study site Xuan Thuy is national park in Red River Biosphere Reserve, the first Ramsar site in Southeast Asia, In comparision with other region in Red River Biosphere Reserve, Xuan Thuy national park tend to suffer more external factors like storms and sea level rise. Xuan Thuy national park has 14 habitat types, including natural and artificial habitats. 3.2. Methodology The buffer flood risk area is 6301 ha. The total area is 19288 ha, or 32.67% of buffer zone area is threatened by sea level rising. Fig.2. Map of study sites 1. INTRODUCTION 4.3. Impact ranking There are 2 main approaches in the world : impact-based approach and vulnerability-base approach. In Vietnam, IUCN and WWF have used chẹcklists to assess the climate change vulnerability. However, these checklist do not depict priorities and .lthe magnitude. Vulnerability-base approach is method approach by assessing social-ecological sensitivity, adaptability. Acording to IPCC (2007) , Vulnerability is “The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed; (E) also its sensitivity (S) and its adaptive capacity (AC)” Defined by formula: Baseline at 1345.2 mm, precipitation in wet season will reach at 1412.46 mm, with 4 or 5 days have extreme high rainfall Baseline precipitation in dry season is 358.42 mm. daily maximum daily precipitation is 78.4 mm Number of extreme hot day is 5.41 days in 2050. Number of extreme cold days will increase by almost 2 to 3 days in 2050 4.1.1. Baseline and change in precipitation 4.4.Vulnerability ranking V= E*S-AC 2. OBJECTIVES Dry season precipitation changes by 0.5% or projected precipitation in 2030 is 359.64 mm, Wet season precipitation changes by 0.7 % in 2030, 1.26% in 2050 Daily maximum daily precipitation in dry season is 78.4 mm Goal Determine the vulnerability of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy National Park, Nam Dinh Province. Objective - Applying spatial analysis tools for comparing,, defining potential threats and calculating flood risks area between regions to figure out degree of risks. - Identifying climate change impacts level of ecosystem in Xuan Thuy national park . - Determining vulnerability level of ecosystems through sensitivity and adaptive capacity to different risks. 5. CONCLUSIONS 4.1.2. Baseline and change in temperature CAM method is a qualitative method. So the result depend on researcher experiences. Some sub-factors would be put into S or AC Need combination of documentary evidences, local experiences & expert judgment about complex sectors. 3.3 . Matrix REFERENCES Nguyen Thi Sinh, 2012, Study on Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Xuan Thuy National Park and proposal for the response direction Nguyen Xuan Trinh, Do Dinh Chien, Nguyen The Dong, Hoang Viet, Tran Thi Mai Huong, Huynh Thi Mai, Huynh Tien Dung, Hakan Berg,WWF project: Mainstreaming an ecosystem based approach to climate change into biodiversity conservation planning in Vietnam GIZ,Impact and vulnerability assessment due to Climate Change to Social Ecological Systems (SES), 3/6/2016. ICEM, CAM brief method, www.icem.com.au MONRE, Climate change and sea level rise scenarios developed for Vietnam, 2012 Wet season (or hot season) average daily maximum temperature will increase by 0.76 degree C in 2030, 1.32 degree C in 2050. Dry season average daily maximum temperature change is 0.8 degree C to 1.4 degree C in 2030.