WICHE Commission Meeting Coeur d’Alene, Idaho Before we get started, WICHE would like to thank ACT and the College Board for their generous financial support of Knocking at the College Door. Without their partnership and collaboration, these projections would not be possible. AT THE COLLEGE DOOR Monday, May 22, 2017 www.wiche.edu/knocking #Knocking2016

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates Public and Private High School Graduates Nation Four Geographical Regions 50 States and DC First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico Public by Race/Ethnicity For over 40 years, WICHE has produced projections of the numbers of high school graduates. We do the projections for public and private high school graduates for the nation, four geographical regions, 50 states and DC. For the first time, we made projections for Guam and Puerto Rico. We also do projections by race/ethnicity for public high school graduates. I’d also like to mention a few details about the data. We use most recent available data from federal data sources. U.S. Department of Education public data files Common Core of Data (National Center for Education Statistics) Number of births by state and race/ethnicity through 2014, to predict the general trend of youth population through school year 2031-32. Private School Universe Survey (PSS) for private schools Race/ethnicity data are for Publics only Most recent available enrollments data were for school years 2009-10 to 2013-14. Most recent high school graduates counts were for 2008-09 to 2012-13. We provide robust detail in the publication, but what this means is that our projections begin in the past – with school year 2013-14 by and large. Methodology is relatively simple: We use a cohort survival ratio method. Which means that we observe, mathematically, the ratio of the number of students who are in a grade one year compared to the number in the earlier grade the year prior. We use an average from the most recent five years, and give the greatest weight to the most recent year. We do not explicitly model or quantify the various factors that influence how students progress through school, such as grade retention or early promotion, movement between schools, locales or states, economic or other environmental factors. They are implicit in the enrollment and graduate counts and progression ratios. You can find detail about the data and methodology in the appendix of the publication.

U.S. High School Graduates The overall number will plateau for most of the next decade The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population Private high school graduates continue to decline in number and share So, let’s begin with the national trends for high school graduates. The big national headlines are that despite the recent improvements in the official high school graduation rate, the sheer number of youth is moderating. This leads to a slowdown and even declines in the number of high school graduates. And, underlying the limited growth and eventual decreased number of high school graduates are long-predicted decreases in the number of White youth – including those who attend and graduate from private schools -- and growing non-White student populations.

Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected) This figure shows the long-term trend of high school graduates. 1976 to 2013, in grey, are reported counts. Past that, in black, the projections through 2031-32 are shown. After 15 years of steady increases—from 2.52 million in 1996 to 3.47 million in 2013 (the latest year that confirmed graduate counts are available)—it appears that the annual number of U.S. high school graduates will level out at around 3.4 to 3.5 million graduates. WICHE’s projections indicate that the number of graduates per year, nationally, will average around 3.4 million through 2023, before peaking at 3.56 million prior to 2026. This peak, fueled by an increase in the number of non-White high school graduates, represents a 3 percent increase in the number of graduates over the previous high of 3.47 million graduates in 2013. Beyond 2026 or so, the number of high school graduates will decline as fewer children born during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery enter high school through the early 2030s. The number of high school graduates is projected to drop 8 percent after 2025, to 3.25 million. And, as we release these projections, there is no indication of a sustained upward trend in births to suggest a sudden increase in high school graduates after that point.

U.S. High School Graduates Compared to SY 2012-13 (Thousands) 640 Hispanic 184 Asian/Pac. Isl. 32 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 474 Black 298 Private Schools 1,839 White White Hispanic White public school graduates are projected to decrease by 17 percent by the early 2030s, about a quarter million fewer graduates than in 2013. In barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. They are projected to be 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance to majority-minority within the span of these projections. Hispanic high school graduates are the primary growth population, increasing almost 50 percent by 2025, from 640,000 in 2013 to almost 900,000. During the growth years, the additional number of Hispanic graduates more than offsets the declines of White graduates. But then even Hispanic graduates are projected to decrease in number between 2025 and the early 2030s, as a result of the recent birth declines, which were greatest among Hispanics. Asian/Pacific Islander graduates are the only population projected to increase throughout, but they are only about 5 to 7% of the total number of graduates nationally, so their numbers don’t shift the overall trend of decline. Black high school graduates are about 15 percent of the national total and they will be relatively steady in number throughout the projections. The numbers for American Indian/Alaska Native students nationally are very small compared to other students populations, but overall there is a decline. High school graduates from private religious and independent schools are projected to decrease by about 26 percent, to about 80,000 graduates, in reflection of their largely White student demographic, but also due to significant contraction among religious schools over the last decade or so. We couldn’t produce separate counts for Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates or two or more races graduate, because of data limitations. But recent years indicated Hawaiian/Pacific Islander graduates are about 7 percent of the combined Asian total, or about 10,000 high school graduates in recent years. Graduates of multiple races have represented between 1 to 3 percent of non-Hispanic public high school graduates in recent years. Black Asian/Pacific Islander Private schools

U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2010-11 (Actual) through 2011-12 to 2031-32 (Projected) The number of high school graduates from private religious and nonsectarian schools is projected to decline at an even greater rate than the overall trend --- from 302,000 in 2011 -- the last year for which confirmed graduate counts are available for private schools, shown here where the grey line ends, to about 220,000 by the early 2030s—a decrease of 80,000 graduates, or 26 percent. We do not have race/ethnicity for Private school graduates. But other recent data show that about 76 percent of Private school graduates, nationally, are White.

Significant Regional Variation The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states. The national projections mask significant variation by region and among the states.

Regional Divisions This slide is here to demonstrate to the audience how we define the regions.( It’s important to note that North and South Dakota are part of the WICHE region (the Census regions have the Dakotas in the Midwest). You can go through this slide fast.)

Significant Regional Variation Total Public and Private High School Graduates Here we see those regional differences. The number of graduates for each region you see here is the region’s high point. The Northeast and Midwest reached their high points for high school graduates in school year 2009-10. The number of graduates from these regions have already begun decreasing and will continue to decline throughout the projected years. The West region – which includes North and South Dakota because they are WICHE member states -- produces about 30 percent of the nation’s high school graduates. The West has long produced the most diverse classes of high school graduates and the greatest number of Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. But by the early 2020s the South region will surpass the West in the number of Hispanic high school graduates, and will rival the West in terms of diversity.

The West Tracks the National trend 30% of the Nation’s graduates Cedes position as #1 producer of Hispanic graduates to the South by 2025, but remains #1 producer of Asian/Pacific Islander graduates And now let’s look at the trends for the Western region. The West’s share of the nation’s graduates is projected to be about 30 percent of the total throughout the projection period. The West is projected to reach its new high point in 2023-24 with about 860,000 high school graduates. It will remain the second-highest-producing region behind the South during the course of these projections, although it is expected to drop back slightly to about 789,000 graduates by the early 2030s.

Total Western Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected) This figure shows the long-term trend of high school graduates in the West. 2001 to 2013, in grey, are reported counts. Past that, in black, the projections through 2031-32 are shown. After 15 years of steady increases—from 666K in 2001 to 831K in 2013 (the latest year that confirmed graduate counts are available)—it appears that the annual number of U.S. high school graduates will level out at around 3.4 to 3.5 million graduates. WICHE’s projections indicate that the number of graduates per year, nationally, will average around 3.4 million through 2023, before peaking at 3.56 million prior to 2026. This peak, fueled by an increase in the number of non-White high school graduates, represents a 3 percent increase in the number of graduates over the previous high of 3.47 million graduates in 2013. Beyond 2026 or so, the number of high school graduates will decline as fewer children born during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery enter high school through the early 2030s. The number of high school graduates is projected to drop 8 percent after 2025, to 3.25 million. And, as we release these projections, there is no indication of a sustained upward trend in births to suggest a sudden increase in high school graduates after that point.

High School Graduates in the Western Region Change from SY 2012-13 (thousands) 278 Hispanic 86 Asian/Pac. Isl. 14 Am. Ind./Alaska Native 42 Black 54 Private Schools 356 White About 30 percent of the nation’s graduates will be from the Western region by 2030. While White high school graduates are projected to decline by 10% percent by the early 2030s (about 38,000 fewer than 2013). The number of Black high school graduates is relatively stable throughout the years projected, at about 36,000 per year (a decline of about 18 percent). Hispanics are projected to increase from 278,000 to 281,000 (reaching a high point of 343,887 in 2023-24) – about 1% growth). Asian/Pacific Islander graduates have modest growth at around 3%, increasing from 86,000 to 89,000. American Indian/Alaska Native high school graduates are projected to decrease by about 26% to about 10,588 from 14,403 by the early 2030s. The West should expect a decline in private high school graduates of about 25 percent, from 54,429 in 2013 to about 40,644 in the early 2030s.

Really Robust Increase High School Graduates by State, Cumulative Percent Change, 2012-13 to 2024-25 Decline Moderate Increase Robust Increase Really Robust Increase CA (-4%) NM (6%) SD (12%) UT (29%) AK (-2%) OR (7%) AZ (13%) ID (34%)    WA (8%) NV (14%) ND (38%)  MT (9%) HI (17%) CO (18%) WY (21%)

High School Graduates in West Western Region 821K / year on average 4% by 2023-24 then 8% by 2032 Non-White 3% to 57% of Public Total 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32 Finally, let’s take a quick peek at some of the states in the West. We’ll have time to go into detail during the small group discussion about each of the states, but I do want to take some time here to examine some of the states. The Western region as a whole is shown… If a state is not projected to exceed the number of graduates in 2013, it does not have a new high -- you will only see the starting and ending number of graduates.

High School Graduates in California White California 426,400 on average, 14% by 2032 Non-White  5% to 74% of Total Hispanic Black Asian/Pacific Islander As you can see, California is the top producer, with 13 percent of the nation’s graduates. It’s projected to decline overall but the share of the non-white population is increasing and is expected to by 74 percent of the total by the end of the projection period. Private Schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

High School Graduates in New Mexico White White New Mexico 20,200 on average 15% by 2032 Non-White  6% to 77% of Total Hispanic Hispanic Black American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Overall, decrease in the total, but an increase of 6% in Non-White population to 77% of the total. Private Schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

High School Graduates in Montana White White Montana 10,000 on average Non-White  5% to 18% of Total White Hispanic Hispanic Black Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander Not much growth overall, slight uptick in non-White population. American Indian/Alaska Native Private Schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

High School Graduates in North Dakota White White North Dakota 8,900 on average Non-White  20% to 32% of Total White White Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic Black Black Hispanic American Indian/Alaska Native Asian/Pacific Islander The numbers in North Dakota are quite startling in both overall numbers and growth in non-White share. American Indian/Alaska Native Private Schools 2013-14 2019-20 2025-26 2031-32

www.knocking.wiche.edu Report State Profiles Download Data You can obtain the projections in a variety of formats by going to our website at www.knocking.wiche.edu. You can get PDF copies of the report, which includes the state-by-state numbers in Appendix A. You can download the projections as an Excel file on the Data page. And, you can view State, Regional and National Profiles about the projections and including other contextual indicators such as academic preparation, educational attainment and family incomes by race/ethnicity for the state.

www.wiche.edu/knocking #knocking2016 Want to Learn More? Joe Garcia President, WICHE jgarcia@wiche.edu Demarée Michelau Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE dmichelau@wiche.edu Peace Bransberger Senior Research Analyst , Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE pbransberger@wiche.edu #knocking2016