Media Release Event National Press Club Tuesday, December 6, 2016

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Presentation transcript:

Media Release Event National Press Club Tuesday, December 6, 2016 Western Interstate Commission For Higher Education Media Release Event National Press Club Tuesday, December 6, 2016 AT THE COLLEGE DOOR www.wiche.edu/knocking #knocking2016

Knocking at the College Door: Projections of High School Graduates Projections for Public and Private High School Graduates and by Race/Ethnicity (Public Only) Nation Four Geographical Regions 50 States and DC First-time projections for Guam/Puerto Rico

The overall number of high school graduates will plateau for most of the next decade

Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

The racial/ethnic mix of high school graduates in the United States will continue to shift significantly toward a more diverse population of graduates

Total U.S. Public and Private High School Graduates, by Race/Ethnicity, School Years 2000-01 to 2012-13 (Actual) through 2013-14 to 2031-32 (Projected)

Projected Cumulative Change in U. S Projected Cumulative Change in U.S. High School Graduates after School Year 2012-13, by Race/Ethnicity (White)

Projected Cumulative Change in U. S Projected Cumulative Change in U.S. High School Graduates after School Year 2012-13, by Race/Ethnicity (Hispanic)

Projected Cumulative Change in U. S Projected Cumulative Change in U.S. High School Graduates after School Year 2012-13, by Race/Ethnicity (Asian/Pacific Islander)

Projected Cumulative Change in U. S Projected Cumulative Change in U.S. High School Graduates after School Year 2012-13, by Race/Ethnicity (Black)

Projected Cumulative Change in U. S Projected Cumulative Change in U.S. High School Graduates after School Year 2012-13, by Race/Ethnicity (American Indian/Alaska Native)

There is significant regional variation

Regional Divisions of the United States

Total Public and Private High School Graduates, by Region, 2000-01 through 2031-32

High School Graduates by Region and Race/Ethnicity - South

High School Graduates by Region and Race/Ethnicity - West

High School Graduates by Region and Race/Ethnicity - Midwest

High School Graduates by Region and Race/Ethnicity - Northeast

Variation Among States: Projections through 2032 California – Projected to decrease by 13.5 percent Texas – Projected to increase by 17 percent New York – Projected to decrease by 5.5 percent Florida – Projected to increase by .5 percent Illinois – Projected to decrease by 18.7 percent

The number of students graduating from private high schools will decline

U.S. Private High School Graduates, School Years 2000-01 to 2010-11 (Actual) through 2011-12 to 2031-32 (Projected)

#knocking2016 Want to Learn More? www.wiche.edu/knocking Access the interactive data tool, receive updates, or download the report Joe Garcia President, WICHE jgarcia@wiche.edu Demarée Michelau Vice President, Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE dmichelau@wiche.edu Peace Bransberger Senior Research Analyst , Policy Analysis and Research, WICHE pbransberger@wiche.edu #knocking2016