The Endangerment Findings: What They Are, How They Are Done, and Who Does Them Prepared by Dr. David W. Schnare, Esq.

Honesty Disclaimer: The “smoke” on the first slide, like the photo on the left above is just water vapor and CO2 with particulate matter captured by pollution control equipment. The picture on the right is unburned carbon, lots of particulate matter and is emitted without any pollution control. It is the Papal Smoke Stack.

The “Take Away” From this Presentation The Endangerment Finding can only be reconsidered if it begins with reconsideration of the science on which such a finding must be based. As others will discuss, a finding of endangerment can only be found if the science demonstrates a change in climate physics and phenomena outside their historical normal variation. The MOST critical player in a science redux is the Office of Science and Technology Policy, a White House office Congress made responsible for the Climate Science Special Report.

There isn’t just one Endangerment Finding! Authority and Duty to Make an Endangerment Finding There isn’t just one Endangerment Finding!

Authority and Duty to Make an Endangerment Finding § 108(a)(1)(A) – Air Quality Criteria and Control Techniques For the purpose of establishing national primary and secondary ambient air quality standards, the Administrator shall publish and revise, a list which includes each air pollutant--emissions of which, in his judgment, cause or contribute to air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. [This then requires publication of a NAAQS forcing States to control emissions to remain in attainment.] § 111(b)(1)(A) – Standards for performance for new stationary sources The Administrator shall publish and revise a list of categories of stationary sources if in his judgment it causes, or contributes significantly to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. [and within one year, regulate those new sources] § 202(a)(1) – Emission standards for new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines The Administrator shall by regulation prescribe and revise standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of new motor vehicles or new motor vehicle engines, which in his judgment cause, or contribute to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. § 115(a)&(b) – International air pollution, working through §110(a)(2)(H)(ii) requires State Implementation Plans to prevent or eliminate the endangerment The reason reconsideration of the endangerment finding is so important is not merely the current rules like the clean power plan. Rather, there are multiple authorities that DEMAND regulation if there is an endangerment finding. Climate alarmists could sue EPA for failure to do a mandatory regulatory act under the current endangerment finding.

Authority and Duty to Make an Endangerment Finding § 231(a)(2)(A) – Establishment of [aircraft emission] standards The Administrator shall, from time to time, issue proposed emission standards applicable to the emission of any air pollutant from any class or classes of aircraft engines which in his judgment causes, or contributes to, air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. § 183 (f)(1)(A) – Tank vessel standards The Administrator shall promulgate standards applicable to the emission of VOCs and any other air pollutant from loading and unloading of tank vessels [ships] which the Administrator finds causes, or contributes to, air pollution that may be reasonably anticipated to endanger public health or welfare. § 615 – [Stratosphere] If, in the Administrator's judgment, any substance, practice, process, or activity may reasonably be anticipated to affect the stratosphere, especially ozone in the stratosphere, and such effect may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, the Administrator shall promptly promulgate regulations respecting the control of such substance, practice, process, or activity, and shall submit notice of the proposal and promulgation of such regulation to the Congress.

The 2009 CAA 202(a) Greenhouse Gases Endangerment Findings EPA finds that the elevated concentrations of the six greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations. EPA finds that the combined emissions of greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the greenhouse gas air pollution which endangers both public health and welfare.

The 2015 CAA 111(b)&(d) Greenhouse Gases Endangerment Findings EPA must make endangerment and cause-or-contribute-significantly findings for emissions from a source category it intends to regulate under the new source and the existing source authorities. In the CAA section 111(b) rule for CO2 emissions for new affected EGUs EPA discusses the endangerment and cause-or-contribute-significantly findings and explains why the EPA has already made them for the affected EGU source categories so that the EPA is not required to make them for CO2 emissions from affected EGUs, and, in the alternative, why, if the EPA were required to make those findings, it was making them in that rulemaking.

But there is only ONE finding that matters: That Greenhouse Gases Endanger Human Health and the Welfare. The other findings are simply whether the source of the GHGs “significantly” cause or contribute to the endangerment.

How does EPA make its endangerment finding? “The EPA has carefully reviewed recent assessments in keeping with the same approach outlined in Section VIII.A of the 2009 Endangerment Finding, which was to rely primarily upon the major assessments by the USGCRP, the IPCC, and the NRC of the National Academies to provide the technical and scientific information to inform the Administrator’s judgment regarding the question of whether GHGs endanger public health and welfare.”

Can EPA Conduct a Red Team Blue Team Reconsideration of the Science On its Own? Only if It has the full cooperation of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; It addresses each of the “lines of evidence” on which EPA relied; and, It does so through a process that provides for “Notice and Comment”.

The Foundational Questions a Science Review Must Address, regardless as to whether it is done at OSTP or EPA: Because the entirety of the endangerment finding relies on only two physical phenomena, the foundational issue is whether scientists can identify a “human signal” greater than the normal variation of: Temperature; and Ocean pH.

If increasing Human-caused GHG levels have induced an increase in temperatures, it should be observable in the “daily high” temperatures: Average Daily Maximum Temperatures at All US HCN Stations 1900 1980 2000

Percent of Summer Days Over 95 Degrees (F) at all US HCN Stations 1900 1980 2000

pH changes are within normal variation

The history of science shows that theories are perishable The history of science shows that theories are perishable. With every new truth that is revealed we get a better understanding of Nature and our conceptions and views are modified. Nikola Tesla The saddest aspect of life right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom. Isaac Asimov