FISHERIES MANAGEMENT – WHAT’S COMING NEXT? Doug S Butterworth MARAM (Marine Resource Assessment and Management Group) Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, South Africa A CAUTION Niels Bohr: Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future

OUTLINE Science and Scientists ENGOs and Ecolabeling Objectives for Management Governance What should industry be doing?

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS SCIENCE - ASSESSMENT GENETICS No – not for stock structure Abundance estimation using genetic fingerprinting and mark recapture concepts Close kin (parent-offspring) Genetic tagging (avoids reporting rate problems) 3

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS SCIENCE – EAF/EBFM Ecosystem Based Fisheries Management By-catch controls Increasing emphasis Species interactions (predator-prey) Important, but progress will be slow Habitat impact “Eye of the beholder” Environment/Climate change Predictive ability a good way off 4

I) SCIENCE AND SCIENTISTS Reduction of financial support Especially Governments, except perhaps ENGOs Diminishing quantitative expertise I see only the USA investing seriously in succession for the baby-boomer cohort A DEFINITE CONCERN 5

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs - A mixed blessing Provide pressure for necessary improvements but Over-emphasise special interest agendas A KEY PROBLEM The typical ENGO public fund-raising model Requires continual “issues” to motivate funds provision Hence no agreement on an issue is likely to be final 6

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING THE 2008 WATERSHED Under ENGO pressure, the supermarket buyers of Northern Europe agreed to sell fish products only if they were MSC certified They thereby performed a silent and unrealised coup d’etat on Ministers of Fisheries as to who decides fisheries policy A MAJOR GAME CHANGER 7

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING MSC – SEPTEMBER LANDMARK RULING ADJUDICATOR RULING (given ENGO objection): Certification must fail without a harvest control rule formally accepted by the managing authority A VERY POSITIVE STEP? Isn’t pre-agreement of what to do when stock status deteriorates a sine qua non for sound management? 8

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs will continue to press for more stringent MSC criteria BUT Developing countries will be increasingly unable to meet such criteria Lack of expertise/infrastructure Loss of incentive/opportunity to improve fisheries management where most needed HOW WILL THE MSC REACT? 9

II) ENGOs AND ECOLABELING ENGOs: THE GREAT PUSH FOR MPAs WHY? MPAs HAVE LIMITED POTENTIAL TO IMPROVE UTILISATION OF FISH RESOURCES????? PERHAPS AN OUTFLANKING STRATEGY? INDUSTRY INFLUENCE GENERALLY DOMINATES IN FISHERIES DEPARTMENTS AND RFMOs CONTINUING APPEALS THEN DIRECTED RATHER TO, EG, THE UN GENERAL ASSEMBLY MOTIVATED BY A CONCERN THAT STANDARD FISHERIES MANAGEMENT WILL FAIL? – JUSTIFIED? 10

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT EG THE US MAGNUSSON-STEVENS ACT AVOID OVERFISHING: F > FMSY OVERFISHED: B < (0.5)BMSY - NEEDS RECOVERY BUT HOW WELL CAN WE ESTIMATE MSY AND BMSY? FOR MOST USA STOCKS PROXIES HAVE TO BE USED MIXED SPECIES FISHERIES - CHOKE STOCKS NEW ENGLAND: Only half of overall groundfish TACs landable Fishery facing economic extinction 11

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT MORE REALISM NEEDED DROP THE F < FMSY REQUIREMENT MANAGE FOR GREATER CATCH STABILITY OVER TIME ADVANCES IN SPECIES-INTERACTION MODELLING ARE NEEDED CAN ALL SPECIES IN A MIXED FISHERY DELIVER MSY, BMSY SIMULTANEOUSLY? BUT FOR CLEARLY DEPLETED STOCKS, INSIST ON SOME INCREASE BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS: RISES IN THE REAL COST OF FUEL WILL NECESSITATE HIGHER ABUNDANCES IN THE LONGER TERM 12

III) OBJECTIVES FOR MANAGEMENT PROPERTY RIGHTS NECESSARY FOR AN INCENTIVE TO CONSERVE BUT LIMITS (FISHERY SPECIFIC) ARE NEEDED ON MAXIMUM HOLDINGS RIGHTS IN PERPETUITY ARE OFTEN POLITICALLY PROBLEMATIC NEED SOME MECHANISM TO ALLOW LIMITED CHANGE IN THE LONGER TERM 13

WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY? NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION IV) GOVERNANCE WHAT WORKS? AND IN CONTRAST WHERE ARE THERE PROBLEMS AND WHY? NO-ONE HAS A PERFECT SOLUTION WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs? CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY COMMUNICATION 14

IV) GOVERNANCE WHO SHOULD DETERMINE TACs? THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE THE US EXPERIMENT: SCIENTIFIC (SSC) TAC ADVICE (BASED ON PRE-SET GENERAL GUIDELINES) MAY NOT BE EXCEEDED NOT IDEAL IRRESPONSIBLE COMMENTS AND INSUFFICIENTLY INTERESTED/EXPERIENCED PEOPLE NEEDS A BALANCED GROUP OF SCIENTISTS, MANAGERS AND STAKEHOLDERS 15

AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY IV) GOVERNANCE CONTROL RULES vs AD HOC NEGOTIATION/FLEXIBILITY THE DAYS OF INDUSTRY DOMINANCE ARE GONE RECENT MSC ADJUDICATION FOR CONROL RULES SCIENTISTS OVERWHELMINGLY FAVOUR THE CONTROL RULE APPROACH DON’T BE SCARED OF SUPPOSED INFLEXIBILITY SOUND RULES WILL GIVE YOU (THROUGH DUE PROCESS) GREATER STABILITY BETTER PROTECTION AGAINST MAVERICK INFLUENCES AND DECISIONS 16

(THE INADEQUACY THEREOF) 200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM BOTH SIDES IV) GOVERNANCE COMMUNICATION (THE INADEQUACY THEREOF) MANAGERS AND INDUSTRY SELDOM HAVE A GOOD UNDERSTANDING OF FISHERY MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES OFTEN AREN’T PREPARED TO SPEND SUFFICIENT TIME TO LEARN THEM MANAGERS CHANGE TOO FREQUENTLY SCIENTISTS THEIR PRESENTATION STYLE IS GENERALLY HOPELESSLY INAPPROPRIATE FOR LAY AUDIENCES HOW RELIABLE ARE THEIR PROMISES OF GAIN TOMORROW FROM PAIN TODAY? (New England???) 200% IMPROVEMENT NEEDED FROM BOTH SIDES 17

V) WHAT SHOULD IDUSTRY BE DOING? INVEST MORE IN SCIENCE AND FISHERY INDEPENDENT SURVEYS MAKE MORE USE OF CREDIBLE SCIENTIFIC ADVISORS (AVOIDING THE HIRED GUN ROUTE) IMPROVE INDUSTRY-GROUP CO-ORDINATION BASE POSITIONS ON DEFENSIBLE PRINCIPLES AVOID SHORT-TERM EXPEDIENCY, WHICH WILL RETURN TO BITE YOU 18

Thank you for your attention