ENFIELD Enrollment Projected to 2018 Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 ENFIELD Enrollment Projected to 2018 Peter M. Prowda, PhD 80 County Rd Simsbury, CT 06070-1206 peteprowda@yahoo.com (860) 658-9919 Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Presentation Organizer Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Presentation Organizer Enrollment History Projections by Level Contributing Factors Prior Projections Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Enrollment History Enrollment from 1970 to Date Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Enrollment History Enrollment from 1970 to Date Enrollment has been cyclical All-time peak enrollment of 13,627 in 1971. From 1971 peak to 1989 trough -7,393 students or -54.3 percent. State enrollment declined 31.5 % between 1971 and 1988 Growth period: 1989 to 1998: +639 students, or +10.3.1 percent. State grew 24.5% between 1988 and 2004. Start of another period of decline: 1998 to 2008: -577 students or 8.4 percent. On October 1, 2008, enrollment was 6,296 students. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Projections by Level Total Enrollment Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Projections by Level Total Enrollment Past ten years Enfield enrollment down 577 students or 8.4% Enfield's enrollment decline was less than that of Windsor Locks (-8.7 percent), but greater than that of Stafford (-5.7 percent), East Windsor (-5.6 percent), Plainville (-5.4 percent) and Thompson (-4.7 percent). Projection: -100 next year; -614 by 2018, 9.8 percent ten-year decline. Statewide decline of 4.0% projected. In addition to these students in 2007: 516 non-public; 48 regional magnets; 121 other public schools; 33 home schooled. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Projections by Level K-6 Enrollment Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Projections by Level K-6 Enrollment In ten years elementary enrollment went from 3,581 to 3,111 students. It has declined 470 students, a 13.1% loss. State K-6 down 4.6% in same period. Projection: +15 to +20 next year; -180 by 2018 or 5.8 percent. State K-6 projected to be down 2.2 percent in same period. Across 9 elementary schools, the average loss is 2 children per year. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Projections by Level 7-8 Enrollment Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Projections by Level 7-8 Enrollment Past ten years: Middle school enrollment declined by 192 students or 17.2%. State 7-8 enrollment up 5.8 percent in same period. Projection: Next year, -45 to -50. A return to current level in 2011, then decline to about 820 in 2018. 10-year decline: -11 students or 10.8%. Statewide -6.8% in same period. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Projections by Level 9-12 Enrollment Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Projections by Level 9-12 Enrollment History: 2,085 in 1998, peaked at 2,182 in 2000, 2,075 in 2008. -10 pupils between 1998 and 2008. -0.5 percent. State 9-12 gained 20.1% in same period. Projection: Down 75-80 students next year. Down 335 by 2018, a 16.1% decline. State 9-12 projected to decline 9.1%. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors 2008 Enrollment by Grade Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors 2008 Enrollment by Grade Observations: Largest grade is 9th (in part due to retentions). Smallest is Grade 6. (Metropolitan Learning Center and new Public Safety Academy). Average HS grade is 520 students. Average MS is about 460 and average elementary is about 440. HS decline easily predictable from lower enrollments in earlier grades. If current conditions hold K class of 2008 will have: 426 in 2015 Grade 7 and 495 in 2017 in Grade 9 . Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Births 1980 to 2013 Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Births 1980 to 2013 Births trended upward from 1980 to 1991 and then started to decline. Peak of 678 births in 1991. 436 recorded by state in 2006. . Births in 2008 projected at 422. Town clerk recorded 173 in 2008 thru June vs 187 in 2007. Births in 2008-2013 estimated from CT State Data Center projection of women of child-bearing age + estimated 2005 Enfield fertility. 1999-2003 births (current K-4): 458 average 2004-2008 births: 437 average (these have already been born, only 2008 estimated) 2009-2013 births: 441 average There were 8,750 women of child-bearing age in Enfield in 2000. CT State Data Center projects: about 7,300 in 2005; about 6,500 in 2010 and about 6,400 in 2015. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Birth to Kindergarten Growth Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Birth to Kindergarten Growth This compares births to first kindergarten enrollment 5 and 6-years later. Eg: Kindergarten enrollment of 5-year olds entering K for the first time in 2007 plus 6-year olds entering K for 1st time in 2008 compared to births in 2002. Yield has ranged from high of 92% in 2001 to low of 73% in 1993 and 1995. Most recent estimate: 85% for 2003 birth cohort. Projection based on 87.2% growth from birth to kindergarten enrollment + 7.4% retention rate of kindergartners. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Estimated Student Migration Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Estimated Student Migration Estimated ranged from a high of 2.9 percent in 2002 to -0.7 percent in 1999. In 8 of the past 11 years it was positive. The estimated rate in 2008 was 0.7 percent. The projection assumes an average in-migration of 0.61 percent. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Net New Housing Units Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Net New Housing Units In the past ten years the number of net (of demolitions) new housing units constructed in Enfield ranged from 86 in 1998 to 15 in 2007. Projection assumes an average of 30 net new housing units constructed annually. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Estimated Sales of Existing Units Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Estimated Sales of Existing Units The estimated number of sales of existing homes ranged from 548 in 1997 to 813 in 2004. There were 631 sales in 2007. The projection assumes 718 sales annually. Based on total sales thru October, number of sales of existing homes estimated at 570 in 2008. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Contributing Factors Non-Public Enrollment Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Contributing Factors Non-Public Enrollment Non-public enrollment ranged from a high of 887 students in 2000 to a low of 516 students in 2007. Reflects in-state count only. Number attending out-of-state is not known. 2007 count represented 7.5 percent of the combined public and non-public enrollment, compared to peak of 11.6% in 2000. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Prior Projections Accuracy of Prior Projections Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Prior Projections Accuracy of Prior Projections Cohort survival method is accurate for short and mid-range planning The 8 enrollment projections that I did between 1999 and 2006 had one-year error rates that averaged 0.9 percent. The 5 projections done between 1999 and 2003 had an average five-year error rate of 3.4 percent, which is 0.67 percent annualized. My last projection for Enfield, which I did in 2006, is running 1.1 percent high after two years. Peter M. Prowda, PhD

Enfield Enrollment Projections to 2018 Enfield Board of Education Meeting January 27, 2009 Enfield Enrollment Projections to 2018 Questions? Peter M. Prowda, PhD peteprowda@yahoo.com (860) 658-9919 Peter M. Prowda, PhD