PUBLIC OPINION, THE MEDIA, AND INTEREST GROUPS

Public opinion Political socialization: the process of learning and forming opinions about politics Agents of political socialization (Welch, pp. 76-81) Family School Peers Media Adult experience

Ideology An organized set of opinions and beliefs that contribute to a coherent political outlook Maddox and Lilie’s categories of ideology Government intervention on social issues Government intervention on economic issues Pro-economic intervention, anti-social intervention: Liberal Pro-both types of intervention Populist Anti-both types of intervention Libertarian Pro-social intervention, anti-economic intervention: Conservative

Public Opinion Polling Random sampling (scientifically accurate surveys must involve random sampling of the population) No self-selection; this would only involve people with strongly held views on the issue, who make the effort to make their views known. They may not be mathematically representative of the population as a whole.

Margin of error Also known as sampling error A mathematical measure of the accuracy of a poll, expressed as +/- a certain percentage. This means there is a 95% probability that, if the entire population were surveyed, the results would be within x% of the poll results. The larger the sample, the smaller the margin of error, and therefore the more accurate the poll.

Presidential polls october 2016 MONTANA Trump 43, Clinton 27, Johnson 7, Stein 2; + 4 NEW HAMPSHIRE Clinton 44, Trump 36, Johnson 10, Stein 6; + 3.2 FLORIDA Trump 45, Clinton 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2; + 3.2 ( These don’t add up to 100 because of undecided.)

MONTANA 95% probability that Trump’s actual percentage is between 39-47 95% probability that Clinton’s actual percentage is between 23-31 So… 95% probability that Trump has AT LEAST 39 95% probability that Clinton has NO MORE THAN 31 Conclusion: Trump is leading in Montana by at least eight points. Actual result: Trump 56.47%, Clinton 35.93%

NEW HAMPSHIRE 95% probability that Clinton’s actual percentage is between 40.8-47.2 95% probability that Trump’s actual percentage is between 32.8-39.2 So… 95% probability that Clinton has AT LEAST 40.8 95% probability that Trump has NO MORE THAN 39.2 Conclusion: Clinton is leading in NH. Actual result: Clinton 46.8%, Trump 46.5%.

FLORIDA 95% probability that Trump’s actual percentage is between 41.8-48.2 95% probability that Clinton’s actual percentage is between 39.8-46.2 Possible scenarios: Trump 48.2-Clinton 39.8 Trump 45, Clinton 43 Clinton 46.2-Trump 41.8 Conclusion: FLORIDA IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL. Actual result: Trump 48.6%, Clinton 47.4%.

Public opinion polling Tracking poll A poll taken repeatedly in the days before an election to compare the candidates’ performance from day to day “Clinton is widening her lead over Trump” means that her performance in a poll is better than her performance in a previous poll. The polls in 2016 gave Clinton a lead, though it narrowed closer to Election Day. The polls correctly predicted Clinton’s win in the overall popular vote. State-level polls in individual states such as Michigan incorrectly predicted that Clinton would win. It was because of the incorrect predictions in certain state polls that Trump’s win in the Electoral College was not forecast by most polling organizations.

Public opinion polling Exit poll Taken outside polling places after people have voted on Election Day. A random sample of voters are chosen to project a winner even before the votes are counted. Does not include people who vote absentee by mail. Improperly constructed model in Florida 2000 Presidential race led to mistaken predictions and confusion.

MEDIA What do Welch and her co-authors argue are the real and perceived biases of the media? (Ch. 5) How the media have evolved historically Newspapers were originally founded as partisan vehicles but developed into objective mass media Radio and television served to give people the same information at the same time The Internet and the proliferation of cable news channels means we get our news from different sources (people who watch Fox News or read conservative Websites believe different things than people who watch MSNBC or read liberal Websites) What difference does it make? Harder to reach agreement on facts, let alone opinions Makes political dialogue more argumentative and negative

The Media http://www.businessinsider.com/study-watching-fox-news-makes-you-less-informed-than-watching-no-news-at-all-2012-5

INTEREST GROUPS Madison’s “factions” were groups with a common interest that sought to promote that interest at the expense of the public interest Contemporary examples: interest groups, economic classes, political parties Public interest vs. private interest group: public seeks benefits for whole of society, private only for themselves Exclusive vs. non-exclusive benefits: you have to join the group to get exclusive benefits, but you don’t have to join to get non-exclusive benefits

INTEREST GROUPS “Free rider” problem: Economist Mancur Olson argues that public interest groups/non-exclusive benefit groups have difficult recruiting members because there’s no incentive to join if you get the benefits anyway Required for interest group activity: organization, leadership, identifiable membership, means of communication This takes money. E.E. Schattschneider argues that this gives what he called the “pressure group system” an upper-class bias

INTEREST GROUPS Activities: lobbying, mobilization, campaign contributions Direct lobbying: Contacting decision makers directly to express their views Indirect lobbying: Having the membership contact the decision makers Mobilization: Communicating with the membership to encourage them to do something Campaign contributions: Interest groups make contributions to candidates in the form of political action committees (PACs) or SuperPACs. PACs are subject to contribution limits in federal elections but SuperPACs can spend as much as they want if it’s not coordinated with the candidate. Independent campaign expenditures from groups like “Americans for Prosperity” or “Crossroads GPS”