HAS THE DOLLAR RALLY RUN ITS COURSE?

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Presentation transcript:

HAS THE DOLLAR RALLY RUN ITS COURSE?

USD has fallen this month, particularly vs EM currencies

The turn began back in January

News is neither bad nor good enough to boost USD

Falling expectations of Fed tightening cause the move

The Fed has followed the market in lowering its forecasts

FOMC is still much more hawkish than the market

Oil prices seem to have found a bottom (for now?)

Sharp fall in US oil rigs portends fall in US oil output

Volatility has fallen & is falling (except in FX!)

Financial stress is back to where it was when Fed hiked

China growth is stabilizing, as are stocks & currency

US economic indicators are no longer disappointing

Can inflation accelerate w.out wage growth accelerating?

Surveys of US inflation expectations vs mkt measures

FOMC is still much more hawkish than the market

Presidential elections haven’t stopped Fed from hiking

EM, commodity currencies have been particularly strong

Money is flowing back into EM markets

CAD, AUD rallying despite adverse commodity moves

Specs have unwound half their long USD positions

Reversals aren’t unusual within long-term trends

Risk Disclaimer: Please note that forex trading and trading in other leveraged products involves a significant level of risk and is not suitable for all investors. Before undertaking any such transactions you should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice as necessary. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, or other information contained in this document do not constitute investment advice.