SANDAG Inaccuracies November 2017 Proprietary & Confidential.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
THURSTON REGION MULTIMODAL TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING MODEL IMPLEMENTATION IN EMME/2 - Presentation at the 15th International EMME/2 Users Group Conference.
Advertisements

Salt Lake City Downtown Transportation Master Plan Light Rail & Bus; Presentation Background and Introduction August 23, 2006.
400 North Orange Avenue Orlando, FL
Long Range Visioning Workshop November 13,14,15 th 2007 Tim Watkins Envision U.
SAN DIEGO I-15 INTEGRATED CORRIDOR MANAGEMENT PROJECT Alex Estrella, SANDAG.
Twin Cities Case Study: Northstar Corridor. ●By 2030, region expected to grow by nearly 1 million, with 91% to 95% of new growth forecast to be located.
San Mateo Rail Corridor Transit Oriented Development Plan ABAG/MTC/ULI Workshop September 29, 2006.
Serra Mesa Planning Group. What and Why of Redistricting Drawing of district boundaries for elected office Happens every 10 years at all levels of government.
Tom Fairchild The R&D initiative of Arlington County Commuter Services.
Materials developed by K. Watkins, J. LaMondia and C. Brakewood TODs & Complete Streets Unit 6: Station Design & Access.
Multimodal Concurrency: Response to 2005 Legislative Session Briefing for House Local Government Committee November 30, 2006 King Cushman Puget Sound Regional.
Sequential Demand Forecasting Models CTC-340. Travel Behavior 1. Decision to travel for a given purpose –People don’t travel without reason 2. The choice.
Oceanside-Escondido Rail Line Final Project Presentation John R. VelascoMay 12 th, 2003.
GOING NOWHERE FAST? Roy Samaan 14 March 2011 UP 206 A Effects of Service Reduction on Transit Quality.
2040 Long Range Transportation Plan for River to Sea TPO September 26, 2014.
New Partners for Smart Growth 11th Annual Conference San Diego February 2, 2012 New Parking Standards for Affordable Housing.
August 3, Introductions 2. Status Reports 3. Demographics Presentation 4. Community Engagement—Plan Norwalk by MindMixer 5. Project Team—City.
Land Use Benefit/Cost Transit Slides. Development – Sprawl – Traffic – Roads An Important Local Issue In America  “What do you think is the most important.
Bus Rapid Transit: Chicago’s New Route to Opportunity Josh Ellis, BRT Project Manager Metropolitan Planning Council.
1 Module 8 STATION AREA PLANNING. 2 Module 8 Station Area Planning Key Concepts and Definitions Station Area Planning Process 1.Define the Station Area.
ENVISION TOMORROW UPDATES AND INDICATORS. What is Envision Tomorrow?  Suite of planning tools:  GIS Analysis Tools  Prototype Builder  Return on Investment.
Performance Analysis Presentation to the National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (NCR-TPB) November 28, 2012 Adopted: July 18, 2012 Item.
 City of Hamilton – Transportation Sustainable Mobility Summit – October 27, 2013.
Urban Sprawl. Urban Sprawl, outward spread of built-up areas caused by their expansion. It is the result of urbanization.
Business Logistics 420 Public Transportation Lecture 18: Demand Forecasting.
Scenario S: Preferred Alternative. Scenario S: Creating Mixed-use Centers Around Major Transportation Areas Is The Primary Driver Of Improved Transportation.
2004 State of the Commute Survey: Assessing the Impacts of Regional Transportation Demand Management National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board.
TOD Technical Assistance Panel June 21, rd STREET, San Pablo CA.
A New TOD Policy for Regional Transit Expansions Steve Heminger Executive Director March 11, 2005.
EPA’s Development, Community and Environment Division: T ools for Evaluating Smart Growth and Climate Change February 28, 2002 Ilana Preuss.
Colby Brown, Citilabs Dennis Farmer, Metropolitan Council
San Joaquin Valley Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS) Update July 25,
Impact of the California High Speed Rail System Lee Ann Eager, Chief Operating Officer Economic Development Corporation serving Fresno County.
Baseline Scenario Quality Growth Strategy.
An AQ Assessment Tool for Local Land Use Decisio ns 13 th TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference May 9, 2011 Reno, Nevada Mark Filipi, AICP.
It’s All About Fairness National Impact Fee Roundtable Denver – October 2005 Dr. Arthur C. Nelson, FAICP Professor & Director Urban Affairs & Planning.
Transit Choices BaltimoreLink Ad-hoc Committee Meeting January 12, 2016.
Smart Growth and Air Quality: Design Concepts to Protect Human Health David B. Goldstein, Ph.D. Natural Resources Defense Council San Francisco, CA
Walk Statistics.  The question has been asked: “Is Lomas a better BRT corridor than Central?”  The purpose of this analysis is to compare the two corridors.
Urban Land Use Chapter Major Land Uses 1. Residential (40%) 2. Transportation (33%) 3. Commercial (5%) 4. Industrial (6%) 5. Institutional and Public.
RFQ/P Opportunity Site 1 (1.4 acres) Catalyst Retail Anchor Tenant  Site 2 (.54 acres) & 4 (.63 acres)  Stand alone retail or mixed of uses with retail.
Urban Land Uses 6 Land Classifications. 1.0 Residential Land Uses includes all the places where people live often takes up to 40% or more of the developed.
1 CPA Request to expand the Oaks Mall Activity Center and change land use to Mixed Use 87 acres 8000 Block of W Newberry Rd.
D-O LRT Station Neighborhoods
Induced Travel: Definition, Forecasting Process, and A Case Study in the Metropolitan Washington Region A Briefing Paper for the National Capital Region.
Voorhees Town Center Vision
75% of Hudson Valley residents drive alone to work
City of Stoughton Comprehensive Plan Update
Transport in the South Peninsula
Airport and Ground Access Choice Modeling
Cellular Layouts Cellular Production Group Technology
Planning Commission November 4, 2010
Pamlico Neighborhood of Norfolk, VA
How have the physical features and the distribution of oil impacted the people of the Middle East? Standards: SS7G7a. Explain how the distribution of.
What is TDTIMS? & Why Do We Do It?
Hospitality and Related Services
Service Routes and Community Transit Hubs: Right Sizing Transit
STEPS Symposium UC Davis December 7, 2017 Lew Fulton, Co-Director
Integrating Travel Demand Management into the Long-Range Planning Process 2017 AMPO October 19, 2017.
Emeryville Marketplace is a 14-acre mixed-use commercial and residential development located at the eastern terminus of the Bay Bridge in the small city.
2040 Comprehensive Plan Open House
A Lake Runs Through It … Or Is It a River? Or Something Else?
Bike+Rail in the Bay Area Andy Thornley San Francisco Bicycle Coalition The Last Green Mile Sustainable ways to complete the rail trip Rail~Volution,
Ventura County Traffic Model (VCTM) VCTC Update
LRT, GRT, PRT Comparison Peter Muller, PE Ingmar Andreasson, Ph. D.
2421 County Road 74, St. Cloud, MN FOR SALE: ACRES LAND
How have the physical features and the distribution of oil impacted the people of the Middle East? Standards: SS7G7a. Explain how the distribution of.
Envision Comanche Employment Focus Group March 14, 2019
Rural Transit Stop Design Guidelines Prof Omer maaitah
Mainly for start up businesses!
Presentation transcript:

SANDAG Inaccuracies November 2017 Proprietary & Confidential

SoccerCity is More Mixed Use… Trips Using SANDAG Data Only Using Civita to Estimate SoccerCity Traffic – SANDAG DATA ONLY SoccerCity is More Mixed Use… Trips Using SANDAG Data Only The SANDAG estimated 170% increase is provably incorrect 57% …and 40% bigger Can perfectly grow Civita to calculate SoccerCity trips – before transit and mixed use benefits. Proves inaccuracy of SANDAG model Proprietary & Confidential

How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG – Why is the model so wrong? Almost every dial turned against us: 13% higher population of employed individuals than multi-family average and directly comparable property IMPACT: More daily trips 44% higher job density for our site per SQF than surrounding comparable land uses 2/3 less walking from our site than surrounding areas, despite next door retail center and walking trail connecting the river 1/5 of the trolley use predicted by surrounding sites (and 1/3 of sites with a 10 minute walk to transit) notwithstanding 3 trolley stop access from our site IMPACT: More daily trips 13% more single car usage at our site compared to SANDAG estimates at most comparable mixed use site – all coming out of 3 passenger car trips How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG – particularly now? These changes amount to a substantial error in trip rates estimated by the model. Again – this is SANDAG data vs. SANDAG estimates. SoccerCity treated differently $200m stadium with premier viewing experience and flexible seating from 21,000 – 32,000 Proprietary & Confidential

Employment Density in Multi-Family Residents Populations Are Assumed to Be Different – With What Basis? Employment Density in Multi-Family Residents Only 1.5 miles 61% of Residents Employed 54% of Residents Employed Population unlikely to be so different over such a short distance in Mission Valley. Again – this is SANDAG estimates vs. SANDAG estimates. SoccerCity treated differently Proprietary & Confidential

Job Density Per SQF in SC Much Higher Than Surrounding Sites Job Density Buildup – SANDAG Data Job Density Comparison Land Use MGRA Metric Amount Jobs SC # Implied Jobs Office 6104 SQF 390,000 773 2,400,000 4,757 MF 6109 Units 190 4,800 Retail 6166 375,000 1191 740,000 2,350 Hotel 5856 Rooms 961 325 450 152 Park 2752 Acres 87 14 61.4 10 Total 7,269 SANDAG Assigned to SoccerCity 10,480 SANDAG output is 44% higher than expected from nearby sites Parks – 45x Higher than Other Parks MGRA Park MGRA Acres Jobs Jobs/Acre 2752 Morley Field 87 14 0.16 2756 101 0.00 2765 Balboa Park 84 1 0.01 22551 NTC Park 43 3576 Robb Field 63 3 0.05 3630 Mission Bay 99 41 0.41 3629 Mission Bay GC 71 7 0.10 Average   78 9 SoccerCity 61 290 4.72 vs. Average 45.1x SANDAG assigned 44% more job density overall. SANDAG assigned 45x the job density to SoccerCity Parks vs. their own data. SANDAG assigned SoccerCity 32% of the number of employees in the entire City of San Diego Parks & Rec Department. Proprietary & Confidential

SoccerCity has Trolley Station Onsite Trolley Use – SANDAG & MTS Data Trolley Usage Significantly Low For SoccerCity SoccerCity has Trolley Station Onsite Trolley Use – SANDAG & MTS Data SANDAG output is 78% lower than expected from nearby sites and MTS data 10 Min Walk 5 Min Walk MTS Ridership Survey Top 3 trolley use sites average a 9 minute walk from a station and 9% trolley usage. Despite 100% of SoccerCity being within a 10 min walk of a station and 45% within a 5 min walk of a station, SANDAG assigned 3.6% trolley usage to SoccerCity, lower than sites on the other side of Friars Road. Proprietary & Confidential

MV Office 9.9% MV Resi 8.2% SoccerCity 3.6% SANDAG Estimates Higher Usage at Other MV Sites Mission Valley Office Mission Valley Residential SoccerCity – Much Closer to Trolley SANDAG Assumed Trolley Use MV Office 9.9% 10 Min Walk MV Resi 8.2% 5 Min Walk SoccerCity 3.6% Proprietary & Confidential

Nearby Sites – Much Higher Walk Splits Walk Allocation for SoccerCity Well Below Mission Valley Sites Nearby Sites – Much Higher Walk Splits Walk % Comp Avg = 14.5% SC 1 2 3 4 MGRA Site Use Walk % 6168 River Run Resi 15.0% 6180 Rio San Diego Plaza Office 16.0% 6200 Rio Vista Retail 12.7% 6184 Hazard Center Mixed Use 14.5% Average   SoccerCity 4.6% SoccerCity was assigned a walk split of 4.6%, 69% lower than the average of a comparable set of sites in Mission Valley. Even the storage tanks just north of SoccerCity have a higher walk split. Proprietary & Confidential

Use Of Cars Assumed To Be Different – Again, With What Basis? Auto Trips by Passenger Load – SoccerCity vs. Mixed Use Comp 1 Passenger (SOV) 2 Passenger (HOV2) 3+ Passenger (HOV3) SANDAG output allocates 12% more trips to least efficient mode at the expense of most efficient mode Land Use SoccerCity Hazard Center Redevelopment Housing YES Office Retail Hotel Park NO When compared to a mixed-use development with similar land uses in the same area, SANDAG assigned 12% more trips to single passenger rides and 12% less trips to 3+ passenger rides, drastically increasing ADT. Proprietary & Confidential

How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG – Why Not Just Fix The Model? – Apparently Politics… We have been trying. We have requested a significant amount of information to help inform SANDAG of errors in our model vs surrounding Politics is now getting in the way – PER SANDAG’S OWN MODELLER When asked why there will not be a separate technical meeting (to ensure accuracy), he responded “Politics have forced our hand” How are politics allowed to outweigh analytical integrity at SANDAG – particularly now? $200m stadium with premier viewing experience and flexible seating from 21,000 – 32,000 Proprietary & Confidential