Research Issues

Why compare? Better understand our own system See what other options are available Understand why certain choices were and are made Understand causation

Empirical vs. Theoretical Empirical World Theoretical World Facts Events Descriptive histories Idiosyncratic (singular event) Simplifies reality Generalize (Nomothetic) Identify regularities Speculate on the meaning of events

Types of statements in PoliSci Empirical (fact) [IS]: Clinton won in 1996 Normative (value) [GOOD]: Democracy is the best form of government Theoretical (explanation) [WHY]: USA beat USSR BECAUSE of its economy

4 C’s of Political Analysis Concepts Comparison Correlations Causation

PoliSci Methodologies Case Study Quantitative (Statistics) Formal Modeling Game Theory

Avoiding descriptivism A problem in case studies, especially for anthropology (see Clifford Geertz, The Slametan, a Javanese ritual [1964]) Your study should apply broadly within your scope conditions You should inform other possible studies Structured-Functional Case Study

Quantitative Issues Sampling Errors – the sample is not reflective of the population due to bias in selection. Not all polls are scientific. Non-response – response rates may vary Non-attitudes – an attitude is reported to expedite the questioning Degrees of freedom (n-1) Margin of error

Margin of Error The margin of error is an estimate of a poll's variance in reported percentages if the same poll were taken multiple times. The larger the margin of error, the less confidence one has that the poll's reported percentages are close to the "true" percentages, that is the percentages in the whole population. For 95% confidence,

Game Theory: Prisoner’s Dilemma Prisoner B Stays Silent Prisoner B Betrays Prisoner A Stays Silent Both serve six months Prisoner A serves ten years Prisoner B goes free Prisoner A Betrays Prisoner A goes free Prisoner B serves ten years Both serve two years

Variables Independent (cause) Dependent (effect) Intervening Spurious

Conditions Necessary – sine qua non: the event could not happen without this condition being met Sufficient – if this condition is met, the event must occur

Scientific Method Four steps: 1. Observation and description of a phenomenon or group of phenomena. 2. Formulation of an hypothesis to explain the phenomena. In physics, the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal mechanism or a mathematical relation. 3. Use of the hypothesis to predict the existence of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively the results of new observations. 4. Performance of experimental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.

One needs Falsifiability Prediction Control Replicability Clear conceptual and operational definitions To Address several other issues:

Issues Co-variation (do x and y just happen to correlate) Plausible alternative hypotheses Time-order relationships (What came first?)

In Comparative another issue is: Does the concept or term mean the same thing in all relevant cases? Consider: Human rights Democracy Liberalism Political parties

One should avoid Tautologies – statements true by definition, a fact giving nothing new Circular arguments Straw men Selection on the dependent variable Excessive flexibility in definition

Karl Popper on Falsifiability It is easy to confirm or verify nearly every theory — if we look for confirmations. Confirmations are significant only if they are the result of risky predictions; that is, if, unenlightened by the theory, we should have expected an event which was incompatible with the theory — an event which would have refuted the theory. A theory which is not refutable by any conceivable event is non-scientific. Irrefutability is not a virtue of a theory. Every genuine test of a theory is an attempt to falsify or refute it. Theories that take greater "risks" are more testable, more exposed to refutation. Confirming or corroborating evidence is only significant when it is the result of a genuine test of the theory; "genuine" in this case means that it comes out of a serious but unsuccessful attempt to falsify the theory.

Experiments and Controls How to do with real, living people? How can we attempt this with states and nations?

Political Science The systematic study of Politics Politics – focused on the role of power, its distribution and application Power – the ability to make someone do something s/he otherwise would not Coercive Persuasive Institutional authority (acquiescence) Class

Disaggregations of Power Visibility Manifest – overt with resistance and open conflict Implicit – opposition does not rise up against overwhelming establishment power Location Dispersed – limited govt., resistant to rapid social change (Veto Points) Concentrated – absolutism , social revolution Source and Use Intensive – increase of effort Extensive - broaden the scope