6: Public Opinion and Political Socialization Shaping the People’s Voice

The Measurement of Public Opinion Public opinion: those politically relevant opinions held by ordinary citizens that are openly expressed Public opinion rarely forces public officials to take a particular action, yet it is something that officials must take into account when deciding policy issues

Public Opinion Polls Traditional method: election results Public opinion poll: estimate of public sentiment Measures public opinion using randomly chosen population sample(s) and carefully constructed interviews Sample: a relatively small group of individuals that is part of a larger group of individuals Population: the larger group of individuals

Public Opinion Polls Random selection is the key to scientific polling, which is theoretically based on probability sampling: a sample in which each individual in the population has a known probability of being chosen at random for inclusion (HCC example in class) Accuracy of a poll is expressed in terms of sampling error-the error that results from using a sample to estimate the population The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error (1000 vs. 200) Examples in class

Opinion Dimensions Public opinion is characterized by various dimensions Direction: pro or con position on an issue Intensity: how strongly the position is felt Salience: how important people think the issue is among other issues You can have an intense position about genetically modified food, but see it as less salient than a number of other issues Intense gun rights advocate more committed to their issue (39%-18% money or contact an official) but salience 1% regarding “nations most important problems.”

Problems with Polls Samples are often based on telephone numbers, but some Americans do not have phones Many also refuse to participate in telephone polls Polled individuals may be unfamiliar with issues Responses are considered “non-opinions” Respondents are not always truthful Poorly worded questions and poorly ordered questions can also affect results Timing of poll important and up to date polling in Presidential elections (Harry Truman/Chicago Tribune); Trump and Hillary (Examples in class)

Political Socialization: The Origins of Americans’ Opinions Partisanship is a learned response acquired via political socialization Process has two distinguishing characteristics: Continues throughout a person’s lifetime Effects are cumulative Takes place through primary (family, school, and church)and secondary agents of socialization (Peers, media, leaders, and events)

National Pride Americans are told of their country’s greatness in many ways, contributing to their comparatively high degree of national pride. When asked in the World Values Survey how proud they were of their nationality, 72% of Americans responded “very proud.” Source: Miguel Basanez, A World of Three Cultures (New York: Oxford University Press, 2016), 142.

Primary Socializing Agents: Family, School, and Church Strongest of all agents of socialization Has a near-monopoly on the attention of the young child Schools, principally early childhood education: Instrumental in building support for the nation and its cultural beliefs; more so than schools in other democracies Praise for the nation’s political institutions and heroes; Pledge of Allegiance Church: Scholars have not studied the effects of religion as well as schools or family, but it is a powerful influence for some

Secondary Socializing Agents: Peers, Media, Leaders, and Events With age, additional socializing agents come into play and become sources of opinion Peers- group’s dominant opinion will appear to be more widely held than it actually is, which can persuade those with lightly held opinions to adopt the group opinion as their own. Media- Reliability issues Leaders-Presidents Events-Depression, Vietnam, 2001

Frames of Reference: How Americans Think Politically Reference points by which individuals evaluate issues and developments are acquired through the socialization process Party identification Political ideology Group orientations Americans’ frames of reference provide an indication of how they think politically and form a basis for common cause

Party Identification Party identification: emotional loyalty (not formal membership) to a political party more fluid than originally believed; can be influenced by the issues and candidates. Major shifts in loyalty are rare Usually these occur in response to a major event Can lead to selective perception Partisanship clearly divides American opinion in the everyday world of politics

Figure 6-1 Party Identification Most Americans say they identify with the Republican or Democratic Party. Among those who call themselves independents, most say they “lean” toward a party and typically vote for that party’s candidates. Source: Based on average of all Gallup polls conducted in 2015.

Figure 6-2 Partisanship and Policy Priorities Republicans and Democrats differ in their opinions on the nation’s policy priorities. Jump to long image description Source: Pew Research Center poll, 2015.

Party Loyalties in the States By the Gallup organization’s indicator, Republican strength is concentrated in the Plains and Rocky Mountains and Democratic strength is found in the Northeast and West Coast. The six most heavily Republican states are, in order, Wyoming, Utah, Idaho, South Dakota, Montana, and Alabama, while Massachusetts, Maryland, Rhode Island, New York, Vermont, and California (in that order) are the six most heavily Democratic states.

Political Ideology Ideology: a coherent set of political beliefs Few Americans have a true political ideology Ideological leanings: Economic liberals and economic conservatives Cultural (social) liberals and cultural (social) conservatives Populists: generally, economic liberals who are cultural conservatives Libertarians: generally, economic conservatives who are cultural liberals

Group Orientations Many Americans see politics through the lens of group affinity Religion Economic class Region Race and ethnicity Gender Generations and age Impact of group loyalties is diminished when identification with one group is offset by identification with others (cross cutting group)

Religion and Politics Religion emerged as a political force in the 1970s. Today, religious observance and partisanship are closely connected. Adults who attend church regularly are far more likely to vote Republican. Source: Exit polls; figures are averages for the 2000 through 2012 presidential elections.

The Influence of Public Opinion on Policy Observers disagree about how much public opinion affects policy, and how much it should affect policy Delegate view of political representatives: they should act in response to what constituents say they want Trustee view of political representatives: they should take constituents’ concerns into account but exercise judgment about the policies that will best serve their interest

Limits on the Public’s Influence Several obstacles stand in the way of governing by public opinion Inconsistencies in citizens’ policy preferences Citizens’ lack of understanding of the issues Mastery of the issues is not necessary for an opinion to be of value, but weak understanding can make it difficult for policymakers to respond Leaders’ efforts to influence public opinion can limit its influence Described by Noam Chomsky as “manufactured consent” Example: lead-up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003

Public Opinion and the Boundaries of Action Officials normally must operate within the boundary of what the public will accept Example: changes to social security Higher public involvement makes it more likely officials will respond to public sentiment Example: shift in U.S. policy on the use of force and ground troops fighting ISIS after the beheading of two Americans Congressional representatives pay close attention to public opinion Tend to favor the position that will garner them the most support in their next election (highly salient and intensity)

Critical Thinking Population, sample, and sampling error are terms associated with public opinion polling. Explain each term and how it relates to the others. Contrast the views of conservatives and liberals on how far government should go to help individuals who are economically disadvantaged, and then contrast their views on how far government should go to promote traditional social (cultural) values. Note that each group wants government to be active or inactive, depending on which approach serves its policy goals.

Critical Thinking (2) What factors limit the influence of public opinion on the policy choices of public officials?

Long image descriptions Appendix A

Figure 6-2 Partisanship and Policy Priorities Appendix 15% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats say addressing climate change is “a top priority” for the president and Congress. 40% of Republicans and 70% of Democrats say assisting the poor is “a top priority” for the president and Congress. 72% of Republicans and 55% of Democrats say reducing the federal deficit is “a top priority” for the president and Congress. 71% of Republicans and 41% of Democrats say strengthening the military is “a top priority” for the president and Congress. Jump back to slide containing original image