VOCAL Scotland/SPORTA Scotland Seminar Culture, Leisure and a Sustainable Future Colin Mair, Chief Executive, Improvement Service

Looking Forward Budget scenarios clearer: Block Grant falls for each year to 2020/21 Fiscal receipts grow below UK level so negative Barnet adjustment Major growth commitments: £500 million real growth for NHS; 30 hours pre-school per week circa £500 million; protection against inflation for Police budget Over 55% of Scottish Budget so…. Local government: around 3% per annum reduction to 2020; ring-fenced additional support for deprivation in schools and social care; 3% Council Tax increase permitted (0.7%)

Population Projections for Scotland Population Projections 2014-based Scotland (000s) 2014 2024 2034 2039 Total % Change All Ages 5,348 5,514 5,659 5,701 6.6% 0-15 911 931 929 924 1.4% 16-29 976 889 900 902 -7.6% 30-44 1,019 1,085 1,051 1,010 0% 45-59 1,157 1,065 1,012 1,078 -6.8% 60-74 851 987 1,059 984 15.6% 75+ 433 557 707 803 85.5% 85+ 114 154 231 264 131.6% Source: National Records of Scotland

Local Authority Projections, ages 85 and over Population Projections 2012-based, 85+ (000s) 2012 2017 2027 2037 Total % Change Orkney Islands 0.5 0.6 1.1 1.6 216% Highland 5.2 6.4 9.7 15.5 199% Dundee 3.3 3.7 4.6 6.1 85% Perth & Kinross 4.0 5.0 7.2 10.7 164% North Lanarkshire 6.0 9.4 13.9 180% Glasgow 10.4 11.4 13.5 17.3 66% Midlothian 1.5 1.9 3 4.8 210% Scotland 109.2 129.2 184.6 274.5 151% Thursday, 06 September 2018Thursday, 06 September 2018

Focus on Outcomes CES: improving outcomes; reducing inequalities; LOIPs Enterprise Review: “inclusive economic growth” Children’s Act and NIF: attainment, achievement and wellbeing Public Health Review: population health improvement: reducing inequalities National Cultural Strategy

Responses Hard focus on priority outcomes: “place” and community focus Shared services and shared capacity: Roads; Trading Standards; Environmental Health; Scientific Services, etc. Regional models and incentives: Education; Enterprise and Skills; NHS reform; Review of Local Government; Growth Deals Community empowerment: engaging and mobilising community resources Maximising local income: fees and charges greater than Council Tax income

Public Investment in Culture, Sports and Leisure Market failure: supply in rural or deprived urban contexts Redistribution: equalising opportunity Link to key outcomes

Economic development and employability Culture and Leisure Health and Wellbeing Economic development and employability Culture and Leisure Community Safety Learning, growth and development

Positioning Lead and “value adding” role(s) with respect to outcomes Direct and advisory/support roles Evidence of contribution and impact Credibility of “offer”: capacity to make “offer” (e.g. pupil equity funding; attainment fund; social care, etc.)

So….Leisure and Culture Downward pressure on council funding so…. Targeted funding: selective focus on priority households, communities and places Optimising earned income: external income: targets Transfer of service, assets and staff to independent Trust Aggregation/grouping of Trusts: corporate group model Exploiting multiple sources of funding: CPP Reintegration as core public services

Key Questions Is the current council/ALEO relationship the way forward? If not, incremental or transformation shift? Are there too many services/trusts? Alternatives? Are we secure about our impact on outcomes? Our role in supporting outcomes? Universal and/or selective focus? Are our “offers” clear and understood by others? Is our market adequately developed?