Presentation title Observation of the climate system under UNFCCC: Developments since SC-24 Dr. Florin Vladu Manager, UNFCCC Secretariat Hangzhou, 27 September 2017

Summary of past negotiations Contents Overview From observations and science informs policy to policy directs scientific focus Role of SBSTA and its relationship with the systematic observation community Summary of past negotiations Some details on work done since SC-24 Earth Information Day SBSTA 45 COP22 (decision 19/CP.22) COP23 and beyond SBSTA 47 COP24: Paris Agreement Work Plan, Facilitative Dialogue 2018 The global stocktake Concluding remarks

From observations and science informs policy to policy directs scientific focus Climate observing System GCOS WMO CEOS Research WCRP IAMC Future Earth Assessment IPCC COP/CMA Global Stocktake (2023, 2028 …) Climate services GFCS WCSP SBSTA Research (RD) Systematic observation AR6 (new findings tailored for the GST) SR1.5 SROCC SRCCL Global average temperature Other services Earth’s climate vital signs (indicators) Reports Scenarios for 1.5–2 °C Shared socio-economic pathways Global carbon budget Earth's energy, water and carbon cycles Carbon sources and sinks Global state of the climate system Assess progress on implementation of the Paris Agreement

…particularly in developing countries Presentation title Role of SBSTA and its relationship with the systematic observation community Policy Observations Research Assessment ECVs, indicators, status and implementation of systematic observation and research Needs and requests (opportunities) Convention Article 4 Commitments Article 5 RSO Promote and cooperate in SO of the climate system and exchange of information Support and strengthen SO Improve capacity for SO …particularly in developing countries SBSTA Recommendations and advice Gaps and needs in RSO Paris Agreement Article 7 Adaptation including … Strengthening scientific knowledge on climate, including research, systematic observation of the climate system and early warning systems, in a manner that informs climate services and supports decision-making Article 8 Loss & Damage Cooperation and facilitation of EWS, emergency preparedness, slow onset events, … COP Animation 2 (RIGHT HAND SIDE) Within the UNFCCC, SBSTA is responsible for taking note of the status of implementation of SO and provides recommendations and advice to the COP. The COP decide on appropriate implementation and MRV action, in the context of the work that is already ongoing. Gaps and needs are identified and requests then fed to the SO community which take these on board. Animation 3 (BOTTOM LEFT HAND SIDE) The original context for SO comes from the Convention itself Articles 4 and 5, key points abbreviated here. The timing of the needs and requests from the Convention and importantly from the Paris COP are particularly relevant to us in this conference to provide input into the GCOS Implementation Plan – I will provide more detail on these in a moment Assessment, planning, implementation, monitoring and evaluation Implementation and MRV Adaptation Mitigation

Presentation title Overview of work done – the GCOS and IPCC assessment cycles and the UNFCCC guidance 5 The GCOS Executive Summary of the GCOS status report 2015 referred to the cycle of assessment and identification of requirements for systematic observation under the Convention. This slide tries to bring the information on these ongoing cycles of assessments, reports and guidance together where the IPCC assessment reports, composed of the full scientific and technical assessment of climate change and advancement in possible solutions to address climate change, link into the GCOS assessment cycles of the climate observing system, and GCOS implementation plans and status reports, all of which are supported by guidance from the UNFCCC. CEOS contributes to the GCOS implementation plans and provides reports to SBSTA on progress made by space agencies providing global observations. a) In the first cycle, which followed the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR 1995), the COP asked SBSTA in 1997, in consultation with the IPCC, to provide an adequacy report on the global observing system on climate. This was prepared and delivered by GCOS in 1998; b) In the second cycle, following the IPCC third assessment report (TAR 2001), GCOS provided its second adequacy report in 2003, at which time COP asked GCOS to provide an implementation plan that identified the actions needed to remedy the reported deficiencies in the climate observing systems (IP 2004). c) In the third cycle, following the IPCC fourth assessment report (AR4 2007), the CEOS response to IP 2004, leading to the Satellite Supplement 2006, and the GCOS progress report to SBSTA 31 (2009) prepared the way for the update of the GCOS Implementation Plan in 2010 (IP 2010) and its Satellite Supplement in 2011; d) We are now in the next cycle of this process, with the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5) being finalised in 2014. GCOS submitted the GCOS Status Report 2015 to SBSTA 43 in Paris, which incorporated updates and reviews from CEOS and a large range of other contributors. This is leading us to the new GCOS IP 2016, being discussed over the next 3 days, and which will be presented at COP 22 this November in Marrakesh, Morocco. e) It would be invaluable to also have in mind how the experience and recent decisions of the past in Paris will lead to development of the road forward to the next and fifth cycle ….. See: <http://unfccc.int/files/science/workstreams/systematic_observation/application/pdf/systematicobservation_2015_1_informationnote.pdf>

Earth Information Day (first time at COP22) Rationale: to optimize engagement and connect information and requirements between the observations and science communities, Party and non-Party stakeholders to benefit the intergovernmental process and Paris Agreement implementation Topics: The state of the climate and the global carbon budget and the development of indicators to support adaptation and mitigation The GCOS Implementation Plan 2016 – explaining the essential climate variables, indicators and actions to support the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals New developments in the estimation of GHG emissions from Earth observations to support national inventories Approach: Presentations and discussion were followed by a poster session where delegates interacted with experts Report available at http://unfccc.int/9949

SBSTA 45 (Conclusions) Noted the need for regional workshops and invited the GCOS to organize such workshops, taking into consideration the benefit of organizing these workshops in collaboration with relevant partners (IPCC, UNFCCC) Encouraged Parties and relevant organizations to take advantage of support via the operating entities of the Financial Mechanism as well as other relevant organizations and channels as appropriate to support the implementation of the GCOS IP 2016 Invited the secretariat of GCOS to report on progress made in the implementation of the GCOS IP 2016 on a regular basis, at subsequent sessions of the SBSTA, as appropriate Noted the Earth Information Day and invited Parties to consider inviting the secretariat to organize similar events during the implementation of the GCOS IP 2016, based on submissions from Parties (by SBSTA 49) Recognized the role of WCRP and the wider research community in developing the new essential climate variables identified in the GCOS IP 2016 with a view to supporting decision-making on adaptation and mitigation

COP22 (decision 19/CP.22) Welcomed GCOS IP 2016 submitted by the secretariat of the GCOS and prepared under the guidance of the GCOS Steering Committee and the contributions by organizations and experts to the implementation plan Noted with appreciation the assessment of climate-related observations that the implementation plan provides for multiple uses Noted that it considered the outcomes of COP21, the introduction of new essential climate variables and the plan’s wider consideration of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial observation requirements and their connection to mitigation and adaptation, particularly early warning systems, including the relationship of the essential climate variables to the Earth’s water, carbon and energy cycles Encouraged Parties to work towards the full implementation of the IP and to consider what actions they can take to contribute towards its implementation

Research Dialogue 9 focused on two themes SBSTA46 Research Dialogue 9 focused on two themes Regional climate research data and information, and gaps (WMO and other regional climate centers participated) Science to take stock and assess progress on mitigation (IPCC WG3 and others) GCOS poster: Systematic Observations: from global systems to local information SBSTA conclusions noted the importance of the work of the scientific community and the IPCC in support of strengthening the global response to climate change, including: Sustained funding for climate research and climate-relevant data, and advancing open access to climate-relevant public data, also noting the work of the GFCS and other relevant organizations, particularly on capacity-building Continued research on Earth system modelling in an effort to contribute to reducing projection uncertainty in support of the Paris Agreement The outputs from downscaling techniques for global climate reanalysis and models, which could be considered as a topic at the research dialogue

Outlook for COP23 and SBSTA47 The work on the Paris Agreement Work Programme is expected to advance under APA, SBSTA and SBI – this work needs to be completed in Katowice, next year APA: NDCs, Adaptation Communication, Enhanced Transparency Framework, Global Stocktake, Adaptation Fund… The Presidency will present the plan for the Facilitative Dialogue 2018 The negotiations under SO will consider progress on implementation of the IP 2016, the report by CEOS and the reports of the workshop in Fiji and of the Earth Information Day… an information note will be used to introduce the issues that may be considered Side events (GCOS, GEO, UN – science) Informal strategic meeting of the systematic observations community with the SBSTA Chair and other presiding officers

Anchoring climate responses firmly in the context of development needs Presentation title The global stocktake Two issues: Assessing the linkages between high-level climate stabilization goals and scenarios on the one hand and the practical steps needed in the short- and medium-term to make the realization of these goals possible Anchoring climate responses firmly in the context of development needs

Global stocktake | ongoing work on adaptation

APA negotiations on the global stocktake

Future work

Some opportunities for systematic observation: Presentation title Remarks High-quality observations are the foundation for solid decision-making on future action on climate change Some opportunities for systematic observation: Inform regularly the process on the sate of the climate (WMO Sate of the Global Climate and Earth Information Day) Better liaise with SBSTA and other implementation bodies - provide relevant information to relevant workstreams under the Convention and the Paris Agreement (e.g., NAPs-LEG, Adaptation Committee, Nairobi work programme and the L&D Ex Com) Contribute to improving the transparency framework and support the global stocktake Identify ways to improve consistency in national reporting of RSO to the UNFCCC Identify indicators and other climate services that could support adaptation decision making and be incorporated into adaptation reporting cycle by all Parties Support the technical examination process (pre-2020 ambition) Integrated approach with SDGs and Sendai Framework and Rio Conventions

Thank you!